Hurricane Joaquin 2015

[nchighcountrywx]

[Solak]

Whoever edited the title .... thanks!

[NCSNOW]

Looks to me its started a more westward movement as oppossed to south/SW. This is a very big deal. If you want OTS soloution you need him to head / or get south a long as possible.

 

[btownheel]

Looks to me its started a more westward movement as oppossed to south/SW. This is a very big deal. If you want OTS soloution you need him to head / or get south a long as possible.

 

 

 

 

 

I've got $10 that says it hits the head of the Cape Fear right in the mouth (Southport landfall).  Any takers?  I've seen this freaking track before....several times.  That part of NC combined with the Gulf flow makes it a bullseye.

[packbacker]

Looks to me its started a more westward movement as oppossed to south/SW. This is a very big deal. If you want OTS soloution you need him to head / or get south a long as possible.

 

 

 

Yep, was just looking at that, compare the GFS v/s Euro at 48 hours...and GFS is to weak and Euro may be to strong.

[No snow for you]

Looks like it is still going SW. This is from the main forum.

 

[Solak]

At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Joaquin was

located near latitude 24.7 North, longitude 72.6 West. Joaquin is

moving toward the southwest near 6 mph (9 km/h). A general motion

toward the west-southwest or southwest is expected to continue

through tonight. A turn toward the northwest and a decrease in

forward speed are forecast Thursday or Thursday night. The center

of Joaquin is expected to move near or over portions of the central

Bahamas tonight and Thursday.

Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane aircraft indicate that

maximum sustained winds have increased to near 80 mph (130 km/h)

with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is expected, and

Joaquin could become a major hurricane during the next couple of

days.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the

center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 125 miles

(205 km).

The minimum central pressure estimated from the Hurricane Hunter

aircraft data is 971 mb (28.67 inches).

[sctvman]

11am advisory:

[Solak]

1100 AM EDT WED SEP 30 2015

Joaquin has continued to strengthen overnight. Satellite imagery

shows that the convection has become more symmetric, and recent

visible images show what might be an eye trying to form. An Air

Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft reported 700-mb flight-

level winds of 83 kt and estimated 70 kt surface winds from the

Stepped Frequency Microwave Radiometer, with a central pressure of

971 mb estimated from the aircraft data. Based on these, the

initial intensity is increased to 70 kt.

Joaquin has moved a little south of the previous track with an

initial motion of 230/5. The shortwave ridge causing this motion

is expected to weaken during the next 24-48 hours as a strong

deep-layer trough develops over the southeastern United States.

This is expected to cause the hurricane to turn northward by 72

hours. There is disagreement in the track guidance between the

ECMWF and the other dynamical models. The majority of the guidance

forecasts Joaquin to turn west of north after 48-72 hours, with the

storm moving inland over the mid-Atlantic states and merging with

the trough. On the other hand, the ECMWF forecast the hurricane to

move out to sea between North America and Bermuda. The ECMWF

forecasts Joaquin to move more to the south during the first 24-48

hours than the other models. In addition, it shows the hurricane

interacting with an upper-level low to its northeast that results in

a more eastward motion after 48 hours. The new forecast track,

which is similar to the previous track, leans more toward the

non-ECMWF guidance. However, out of deference to the ECMWF, it

lies to the east of the center of the guidance envelope and the

consensus models. The NOAA G-IV jet is scheduled to fly a synoptic

surveillance mission this afternoon, which, along with special

rawinsonde launches over the eastern U. S., hopefully will reduce

the spread of the guidance.

Joaquin is expected to remain in an environment of moderate

northeasterly vertical shear for the next 24-36 hours. However,

since it has been steadily strengthening in such an environment,

there is no obvious reason to think it will stop doing so. After

36 hours, the hurricane is likely to move into an area of divergent

southerly upper-level winds associated with the eastern U. S.

trough. While there is uncertainty as to how much shear should

occur, it is expected that additional intensification could occur

through 72 hours. Based on this, the intensity forecast calls for

Joaquin to peak as a major hurricane in about 72 hours, and it is

possible it could be stronger than currently forecast. After 72

hours, increasing shear and cold air intrusion should cause

weakening and the start of extratropical transition.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Confidence in the details of the track forecast late in the

period remains low, since the environmental steering currents are

complex and the model guidance is inconsistent. A wide range of

outcomes is possible, from a direct impact of a major hurricane

along the U.S. east coast to a track of Joaquin out to sea away from

the coast. It is therefore way too soon to talk about specific

wind, rain, or surge impacts from Joaquin in the U.S.

2. Should the threat to the U.S. increase, any further adjustments

of the forecast to the west would likely be accompanied by an

increase in the forecast forward speed, with impacts along the coast

occurring sooner than currently forecast. A hurricane watch could

be required for portions of the U.S. coast as early as Thursday

evening.

3. Many areas of the eastern U.S. are currently experiencing heavy

rains and gusty winds associated with a frontal system. This

inclement weather is expected to continue over the next few days,

which could complicate preparations for Joaquin should it head

toward the coast.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/1500Z 24.7N 72.6W 70 KT 80 MPH

12H 01/0000Z 24.3N 73.2W 80 KT 90 MPH

24H 01/1200Z 24.1N 74.0W 85 KT 100 MPH

36H 02/0000Z 24.4N 74.4W 90 KT 105 MPH

48H 02/1200Z 25.3N 74.5W 95 KT 110 MPH

72H 03/1200Z 28.5N 73.5W 100 KT 115 MPH

96H 04/1200Z 34.0N 73.0W 90 KT 105 MPH

120H 05/1200Z 38.5N 74.0W 75 KT 85 MPH

[nchighcountrywx]

Bastardi Weatherbell Subscribers:

 

Bastardi has a post at 10:54am on how the ECMWF may score the coup and send the storm out.   He is not necessarily forecasting that to occur, but is laying the cards out on the table as the pattern is always in a state of evolution.

 

The full post and graphics are here:

 

http://www.weatherbell.com/premium/joe-bastardi/why-the-euro-could-score-the-coup

 

WHY THE EURO COULD SCORE THE COUP

 

September 30 10:54 AM

 

The first reason of course is the trough to the east. But while that is going on, the deepening hurricane means the gradient to the south of the storm is increasing out of the west. A tropical cyclone is as a cork in the stream.. While we are watching the ridge to the north and east.. as strong as it is, its not as strong as the ridge to the south and so the stream flow may change to allow more of the westerly vector that takes the storm out. It is true the anomaly is way above normal over the north atlantic

 

My comment: There could be changes one way or the other once the additional samplings being currently conducted by high altitude research planes and the 6 hour soundings are all factored into the guidance.

 

Interesting event for sure.   Been a while.

 

(Just hope this does not wreck our winter pattern ala Hurricane Sandy redo)  (This is not likely)

[NCSNOW]

Last few frames it looks to not be getting below 25 lat. If the Euro Op is going to be right its based on this getting far enough south to delay the effects or handoff to the trough until latter on when the trough has had time to advance more east thus keeping him OTS.

[BullCityWx]

The Euro, GFS and Canadian are all showing double digit rainfall totals for much of the southern metro of Charlotte. The euro is a little less on the north end of the metro. GFS and Euro both specifically show 15"+ totals, the Canadian is even worse. 

[shaggy]

Just not feeling this as a real threat. I know so much is yet to be determined but the euro op run has stuck to its guns and you never discount the euro.

[packbacker]

Last few frames it looks to not be getting below 25 lat. If the Euro Op is going to be right its based on this getting far enough south to delay the effects or handoff to the trough until latter on when the trough has had time to advance more east thus keeping him OTS.

 

It's hard for me to imagine Joaquin making it further north than NC/VA border, it's either going to get picked up and sucked in like most models are showing or it escapes out to sea.  If it gets booted OTS then yes the SLP from the ULL could track into the NE.  The previous runs of GEFS/EPS have been digging the ULL further and further south.  Maybe that trend continues or maybe it stops and the block is weaker but OTS is a coin toss....

[Brick Tamland]

Just not feeling this as a real threat. I know so much is yet to be determined but the euro op run has stuck to its guns and you never discount the euro.

 

Maybe it won't hit NC, but even if it doesn't we are still going to have a mess with all the rain coming from the low. Joaquin will just make things twice as bad if it does hit.

[fountainguy97]

Euro has been shifting west.  Current storm motion is taking a jog further west. For the EURO to be right the storm has to keep digging south.  At this point EURO is the outlier so it should be treated as such

[deltadog03]

Hey everyone!  

wow. what a potential situation, huh...lol

Funny thing is, ex- Ida (right?) is providing an avenue for this to escape. Thats what the EURO says. My guess is the OP runs are way to far east as the ENS are back further WEST. I still think the deep upper trof over the SE (that comes in and digs in) will help pull this west like most models are saying. I see how the EURO OP could happen, but don't think its right as of now. I think people in NC through Southern NE better start really paying attention to this. Not to scare people, but that nice upper outflow pattern it gets into by the weekend could make this sucker really take off. Just my 2cents for now.

[Solak]

What impact could this little spinup off the coast of Florida have? Is that the former 99L?

 

[Solak]

Pretty bold statement...

 

@RyanMaue 30m30 minutes ago

Over next 24 hrs, #Joaquin eye should clear out...models suggest pressures consistent w/Cat 4 - excellent environment

[packbacker]

12z GFS sure does look Euro like through 36.

[packbacker]

ULL through 54 is again further south.

[Cold Rain]

ULL through 54 is again further south.

 

That would bring the heavy rain axis farther south too, right?

[packbacker]

Uh oh...the ridge in the n-atl is stronger, this might get nuts.

[packbacker]

That would bring the heavy rain axis farther south too, right?

 

We get a lot of rain still but yes, this may drag it to eastern GA.  The GFS is about to go nuts...

[packbacker]

Look out ILM at hour 90....take cover.

[kvegas-wx]

Uh oh...the ridge in the n-atl is stronger, this might get nuts.

Thats cuz I hit 110 on I85 North last night leaving ATL and headed home to the Triad.  Clearly I caused a ripple effect in the atmosphere.  I noticed the same thing in CLT as I passed through about 11pm last night.  Lightning flashes likely caused by the instability coming from my back bumper.  Lol.

 

Sat imagery is quite impressive thus far today.  Lots of talk of RI over in the main forum so I don't discount Ryan's Cat 4 comments.  There is nothing standing in his path and conditions for strengthening  could not be better across the Caribbean.

 

Edit - yikes!  I'm seeing a day off Monday for UNCW.  Maybe two!

[packbacker]

GFS does a Fran redux path

[packbacker]

Yikes...

 

 

[wncsnow]

This run doesn't have the extreme rainfall totals, more of the 4-7 variety instead of 10-20

[btownheel]

Look out ILM at hour 90....take cover.

 

 

I'm gonna want my $10 from somebody lol....