downeastnc Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 The Navgem has run two back to back runs with little change and it is the worst one out there for NC....but its the Navgem so for entertainment purposes here is the 00Z and 06Z plots for landfall 00Z 06Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 The Navgem has run two back to back runs with little change and it is the worst one out there for NC....but its the Navgem so for entertainment purposes here is the 00Z and 06Z plots for landfall 00Z navgem_mslp_pcpn_us_00.png 06Z navgem_mslp_pcpn_us_12.png Yikes.... The next frame (hour 78) on the 6Z NAVGEM has a 982 over Boone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 There could be some crazy temp swings the next few days. Take RDU as example; we're currently in a warm tropical air mass, a cold front comes through later today dropping the temps, tomorrows highs may be at mid-night tonight, tomorrow and Friday may stay in the 50s, then if the hurricane does move close as models depict we'll move back into a tropical air mass for a time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Yikes.... The next frame (hour 78) on the 6Z NAVGEM has a 982 over Boone. Yeah but its the Navgem so don't take it to seriously at this point.....but it would be very Fran like if it followed that track..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Good luck NC. Looks like a disaster is a decent possibility. Am I the only one that thinks it will make landfall further South in South Carolina because of the ULL? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thrasher Fan Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Alex Lamers @AlexJLamers 54s54 seconds ago Reminder that the 18Z model runs this afternoon will be incorporating special sounding data from the eastern US. #Joaquin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 This pup is RI. I'll be suprised if it's not a major within 18-24 hrs. Heck the latest HWRF has it a Cat 4 by Thursday night The only thing that could slow it down a little is some dry air entrainment, but it's getting ready to take off regardless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 This GFS 500mb says a lot. The upper low to the SW of the Carolinas can easily pull Joaquin inland. I assume the extreme rainfall the models are putting out for a swath of the Carolinas is due to the interaction of Joaquin with the Upper Low. I would take those extreme swaths of 20" plus rain with a grain of salt now but sure bears watching ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RubiksDestroyer Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 It looks like it might be forming an eye... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Yeah but its the Navgem so don't take it to seriously at this point.....but it would be very Fran like if it followed that track..... And just yesterday it had the track going up to Rhode Island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 For those considering a Fran track...2 days before landfall v/s what GFS is modeling in 60 hours.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AJF0602 Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Oh yikes at that map posted above lol... Fran was a beast here in Jville. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 rainfall from fran Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 The ULL is in the NE corner of Texas on the sat pic I posted. See where it winds up. As nchighcountrywx stated it's the big player on whether or how far inland Joaquin gets pulled in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
airmarci Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Big player is going to be how much the heavy precipitation out ahead of Joaquin builds the downstream ridge that is forecasted to steer it onshore. Below, you can see strong diabatic building of the downstream ridge at 72hrs in the 6z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Interesting to see the heavy rain axis shift south in the modeling overnight. I would have expected it to shift more to the north. Is it because the ridging to the north is modeled to be stronger? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Interesting to see the heavy rain axis shift south in the modeling overnight. I would have expected it to shift more to the north. Is it because the ridging to the north is modeled to be stronger?Models finally seeing the strength of the wedge! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Big player is going to be how much the heavy precipitation out ahead of Joaquin builds the downstream ridge that is forecasted to steer it onshore. Below, you can see strong diabatic building of the downstream ridge at 72hrs in the 6z GFS. GFS_2015093006_f72.png Super cool graphic. Didn't know if that was easily measurable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Models finally seeing the strength of the wedge! Lol...Not every day you see a map like this. Although, if trends continue, I expect this to be expanded south and east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 some nice agreement here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
airmarci Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Super cool graphic. Didn't know if that was easily measurable Got it from Tom Galarneau's page here: http://www.atmo.arizona.edu/~tgalarneau/realtime/gfs_na/dtall/res.html PV dianostics are incredibly insightful for these types of events when diabatic processes are modulating the upper dynamics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 For those considering a Fran track...2 days before landfall v/s what GFS is modeling in 60 hours.... Interesting...that ULL is key, I live at 500mb during winter but with a hurricane involved I'm kinda at a loss. I don't know what to believe, maybe we'll see some ingestion tonight at 18z and 0z and get a clearer picture, but probably not. If it does pull inland the spaghetti charts are useless right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 some nice agreement here. That would be a nightmare for the Delmarva, a major coming in at that angle, talk about a tidal surge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Interesting...that ULL is key, I live at 500mb during winter but with a hurricane involved I'm kinda at a loss. I don't know what to believe, maybe we'll see some ingestion tonight at 18z and 0z and get a clearer picture, but probably not. If it does pull inland the spaghetti charts are useless right now. Looking at the individual members from the GEFS/EPS...it's a 180 degree cone, there a couple of clusters in that but it's anywhere and everywhere at this point. The fact that the best model on the planet has this escaping OTS has to mean something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Some warm water In the AO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Welp, 6z GFS had 15" of QPF for CLT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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