wncsnow Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 The storm doesnt have to make landfall for us to get a big rain event.. the upper low can still bring plenty of that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncskywarn Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 The storm doesnt have to make landfall for us to get a big rain event.. the upper low can still bring plenty of that That's true but I'd much rather be dealing with potentially 10-15 inches of rain as potentially or hypothetically 30 inches of rain. Not that either one of those wouldn't cause problems. I mean 30 inches of rain is about 2/3 of the yearly average rainfall in Raleigh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Euro is still dropping 10+ inches of rain over the rest of the week in central NC even w/o joaquin getting entrained into the upper low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Euro is still dropping 10+ inches of rain over the rest of the week in central NC even w/o joaquin getting entrained into the upper low. Wonder what the Euro sees that none of the others are picking up on, you hate to go against the Euro but it is really alone in the OTS camp right now. The Euro really kicks the storm NE out of the Bahamas where as the other models are much more north and slower.....I wonder if the Euro with a deep storm is allowing the trough to have more influence and shove it OTS. I guess its the classic time honored see which model camp blinks first time......only instead of a winter storm there is quite a bit more at stake here and with the timeframe being somewhat short I hope they agree soon one way or the other. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Wonder what the Euro sees that none of the others are picking up on, you hate to go against the Euro but it is really alone in the OTS camp right now. The Euro really kicks the storm NE out of the Bahamas where as the other models are much more north and slower.....I wonder if the Euro with a deep storm is allowing the trough to have more influence and shove it OTS. I guess its the classic time honored see which model camp blinks first time......only instead of a winter storm there is quite a bit more at stake here and with the timeframe being somewhat short I hope they agree soon one way or the other. Probably, i am assuming it has to do with the intensity of the storm. DT said something similar. That said, the overall pattern to me looks good for an east coast hit. We shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 For what it is worth here is the 00Z Navgem its the first one to show more traditional hit to NC http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=navgem®ion=eus&pkg=mslp_wind&runtime=2015093000&fh=6&xpos=0&ypos=118 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Stolen from main thread this is the Euro ens mean low location which is dramatically different than the op 00Z Euro run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 GFS quite a bit west so far versus 00Z out to 66hrs or it could be slower....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 6s GFS south again, direct hit to HAT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted September 30, 2015 Author Share Posted September 30, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted September 30, 2015 Author Share Posted September 30, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 06Z GFS at 96hrs already turned NW further south looks like it might be a landfall near or south of Hatteras this time if it keeps the same angle of turn...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 The 5"-8" swath of rain, almost gets into Spartanburg , on the map TWC just showed! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 The EPS members are everywhere, landfall from SC to DC to OTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 GFS brings it in right over Hatteras moving NW, yet another SW shift a few more of these and its gonna be NC/SC border lol http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=seus&pkg=mslp_wind&runtime=2015093006&fh=78&xpos=0&ypos=601 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 GFS is a coastal nightmare for NC. The main difference I can see right now between the Euro and GFS is that the Euro tends to weaken the high to the north of Joaquin and wants to break down quickly, whereas the GFS keeps it around a tad longer and actually pulls the high south into a better blocking position. GFS also has the ULL moving inland farther west compared to the GFS who says no absorbsition happens and there is nothing to push/pull the storm back to the shore. Depending on how strong this high verifies and where that position is, will determine if Joaquin will make landfall. Should be interesting to track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Rainfall totals on the 06Z GFS. Much further south and west than before. I'm now in the 1-ft+ rainfall swath: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Plane is also going in now so we should see if its a cane or not but I have no doubt they find at least 80-85 mph cane Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted September 30, 2015 Author Share Posted September 30, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Should be a Hurricane on the 8am update. Recon just found 66kt winds with pressure around 972mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted September 30, 2015 Author Share Posted September 30, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted September 30, 2015 Author Share Posted September 30, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 I'm not going to get anything done at work today lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted September 30, 2015 Author Share Posted September 30, 2015 How do I edit the thread topic??? HURRICANE JOAQUIN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 10ANWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015800 AM EDT WED SEP 30 2015...JOAQUIN BECOMES A HURRICANE...SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION----------------------------------------------LOCATION...24.9N 72.2WABOUT 245 MI...395 KM ENE OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMASMAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/HPRESENT MOVEMENT...SW OR 235 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/HMINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...971 MB...28.67 INCHESWATCHES AND WARNINGS--------------------CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:None.SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...* Central Bahamas including Cat Island, the Exumas, Long Island,Rum Cay, and San Salvador.A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...* Northwestern Bahamas including the Abacos, Berry Islands, Bimini,Eleuthera, Grand Bahama Island, and New Providence, but excludingAndros IslandA Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expectedsomewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical stormforce winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult ordangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should berushed to completion.A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possiblewithin the watch area, in this case within the next 36 to 48 hours.For storm information specific to your area, please monitorproducts issued by your national meteorological service.DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK------------------------------At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Joaquin waslocated near latitude 24.9 North, longitude 72.2 West. Joaquin ismoving toward the southwest near 6 mph (9 km/h). A general motiontoward the west-southwest or southwest is expected to continuethrough tonight. A turn toward the west and a decrease in forwardspeed are forecast on Thursday. On the forecast track, the center ofJoaquin is expected to move near or over portions of the centralBahamas tonight and Thursday.Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraftindicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 75 mph(120 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecastduring the next 48 hours.Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (50 km) from thecenter. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 125 miles(205 km) from the center.The minimum central pressure estimated from the Hurricane Hunteraircraft data is 971 mb (28.67 inches).HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND----------------------WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to reach portions of theCentral Bahamas by midday Thursday. Winds are expected to firstreach tropical storm strength in the warning area tonight, makingoutside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protectlife and property should be rushed to completion.STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels byas much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels in areas ofonshore flow. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied bylarge and dangerous waves.RAINFALL: Joaquin is expected to produce 5 to 10 inches of rainwith isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches possible over SanSalvador and Rum Cay through Friday morning. Rainfall amounts of 3to 5 inches are possible over the remainder of the central Bahamasthrough Friday morning, with 2 to 4 inches expected over thenorthwestern and southeastern Bahamas.SURF: Swells generated by Joaquin will affect portions of theBahamas during the next few days, and will begin to affect portionsof the east coast of Florida and the southeast coast of the UnitedStates by Friday. These swells are likely to cause life-threateningsurf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from yourlocal weather office.NEXT ADVISORY-------------Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.$$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Well I'm in the 20 inch range now here in the foothills. Oh well. How much further west can this go? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNC_Fort Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Well I'm in the 20 inch range now here in the foothills. Oh well. How much further west can this go? Ready for Ivan/Frances all over again? One of the first storms this season that i've been legitimately excited to track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Ready for Ivan/Frances all over again? One of the first storms this season that i've been legitimately excited to track. Phew ready or not I guess. I'm going to be in Hilton Head this weekend, hope I can get home. Luckily, my house is on a knoll. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Not to be all doomsday, but if he runs the coast we can all expect at least tropical storm force wind gusts for a few hours. Even here in the triad these coastal storms make for a very windy day. Tree damage and power outages folks. Outages on top of epic flooding. Think weeks, not days. Be prepared. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 I'm not going to get anything done at work today lol LOL I gotta go to bed cause I work tonight and I know I am going to toss and turn and get on my phone around 2 to see what the euro does..... looks good could see a Cat 3 by this time tomorrow if not faster...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Good luck NC. Looks like a disaster is a decent possibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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