kvegas-wx Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Yall dont need to be rooting for this one. Everyone here is smart enough to know from prior experience the amount of tree damage, power outages and misery that can come with a storm like this. And on a larger scale the flooding we had across the flats of north carolina (rocky mt, plymouth, etc) and river basins. Lord knows we all asked for rain and we got it. But this is a whole different ballgame. Do we have results from the latest hunter yet? Just catching up on threads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Its really to early to tell when and even if this thing brings a wind factor into the area, but planning for a lot of rain should be already in the works.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 CMC has QPF max in SC, much further south than GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovingGulfLows Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Even SC is going to have to start worrying about a lot of flooding if models continue looking like how they do now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 CMC has QPF max in SC, much further south than GFS. Prolly means a NC landfall then haven't seen it update on tropical tidbits yet...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Prolly means a NC landfall then haven't seen it update on tropical tidbits yet...... Landfall in VA. Maybe a bit north of GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Regardless of exact landfall, the ULL underneath would be drawing in enormous amounts of precip off of it back west before the storm itself makes landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chapelhillwx Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 I have a condo booked for a car show in Ocean City MD between Thursday and Sunday. Let's hope the whole island isn't underwater. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Ouch. ch: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JacobNC Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 The impact of a direct hit on Hampton Roads would be devastating, with the whole area being pretty much <15 ft elevation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Hurricane Fran did it that's why she went so hard NW there was a ULL cut off over western Tenn I believe but I don't have the maps handy...... I can guaran-dam-tee you I've got the maps handy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 I can guaran-dam-tee you I've got the maps handy Does look sorta similar huh.....the CMC went from landfall at Cape May at 12Z to going right in Chesapeake Bay at 00Z so as with the GFS the SW trend continues..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hrtsdsn Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 My entire family is at the beach in Garden City, SC through Saturday. Just now checking in. OMG?? Do we need to bug out? Precip looks north on other weather sites. No warnings on weatherbug etc. I totally know you guys are amazing and local weather lags behind. Will tune in to weather channel in the morning... Holy cow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovingGulfLows Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Ouch. ch: We'd be talking about a historic crushjob if that was white fluffy snow. Now imagine 8-10x the liquid value falling in a 2-3 day period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 My entire family is at the beach in Garden City, SC through Saturday. Just now checking in. OMG?? Do we need to bug out? Precip looks north on other weather sites. No warnings on weatherbug etc. I totally know you guys are amazing and local weather lags behind. Will tune in to weather channel in the morning... Holy cow! Nobody has a clue yet. Much too early to know. Keep tuned to the boards man. Lots of moving parts involved. We do know that someone is going to get lots of rain somewhere though. Regardless if the storm actually makes a landfall or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 00z HWRF simulated satellite for Thursday afternoon.. Looks like Joaquin might be able to see clearly by then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheapdad00 Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 We'd be talking about a historic crushjob if that was white fluffy snow. Now imagine 8-10x the liquid value falling in a 2-3 day period. That was my thought exactly. Why can't we get 10 or 20% of this precipice in the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 I've watched you forecast enough on the winter events to trust your thoughts. For those of us in central NC (a lot of us on this thread), what's the upper ceiling on this? Fran? Or what Hugo did to Charlotte. Apologize for the IMBY nature of it, but if this thing is rapidly strengthening and looking to hook west over us; I want to get my preparations done before the mass rush hits the hardware/grocery stores... Thx man. Depends on the amt of strengthening we see over the next 2 days and whether this is a VA or NC hit. That said the gfs solution maakes sense. The cane has no where to go but west after 72 hours. As far as rain, i think thats already a given. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NRVwxfan. Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Ouch. ch: 17 inches of rain imby???????? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Here she comes Eyewall starting to form. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 If the Euro comes in with a similar hit as the other models the NHC is going to have to make a huge change to their maps at 5am...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Brad is getting bit frustrated by all the argument of whether it will be a hurricane or transitioning system at landfall. Brad Panovich @wxbrad 2h2 hours ago WX communication needs to keep a focus on impacts. People want to know if they are going to get hit by a car, don't care what kind of car. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Brad is getting bit frustrated by all the argument of whether it will be a hurricane or transitioning system at landfall. Brad Panovich @wxbrad 2h2 hours ago WX communication needs to keep a focus on impacts. People want to know if they are going to get hit by a car, don't care what kind of car. Brad is 100% right. There will be major impacts even if the system doesn't make an official landfall! Historic rainfall first, wind and surge later. I personally think the Weather Channel naming random storms has some to do with the public questions about the names/extratropical etc... maybe it was Sandy? Who knows. I do know the 18z GFS was trending on Twitter earlier... I have my trends set to the USA and not tailored to my interests. It was asked on the Weather Channel by a Twitter user (they answered) what they thought of the 18z GFS. I think the over-exposure of weather maps (false hurricane/snow/whatever) maps are causing the public to think they are all knowing and weather geeks these days. Not that many of us (including me) don't do the same.. but as a general public.. it's getting a bit ridiculous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 GFDL is much further SW and is actually pretty much in line with the GFS bringing the center in right over the VA/NC border...it also has it at 945 MB and 110knts this would damage/destroy the OBX north of Hatteras to a level they have never seen at least in living memory....the next fame has it as a 75 mph cane sitting right over Richmond..... The real take away today though is the SW trend has been strong and may not be over, one thing the models have done is they take the storm SW to almost the Bahamas and then unlike yesterday they move it more north with far less NE motion until the door gets slammed. A few more SW jogs like that and its coming in Lookout and sitting over Raleigh by the next frame...... HWRF is even further south with landfall just north of Hatteras and is sitting over Columbia at 946 MB then the next frame has it over Roanoke Rapids keep in mind these two models by themselves are terrible but when they start to agree with the globals you got raise a eyebrow..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncskywarn Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 When does the euro srart it's run and any pbp? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 When does the euro srart it's run and any pbp? Euro looks to most likely not be anything like the other modeling... so far.. at least. Probably like it's past operational run. Keep in mind some of the GEFS data showed away from the USA solutions too.... so gotta give the Euro a bit of credit of being right because of that. Anyways, Euro moved slightly West so it is a step to the other models showing landfall in the USA. Wait and see game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Euro out to sea. Wide right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 yeah I gotta admit I am a little surprised the Euro is sticking to its guns.....as usual its a battle between the Euro and everyone else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncskywarn Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Euro looks to most likely not be anything like the other modeling... so far.. at least. Probably like it's past operational run. Keep in mind some of the GEFS data showed away from the USA solutions too.... so gotta give the Euro a bit of credit of being right because of that. Anyways, Euro moved slightly West so it is a step to the other models showing landfall in the USA. Wait and see game. That's good at least because if it comes in line with the GFS going to be rainageddon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 That's good at least because if it comes in line with the GFS going to be rainageddon. Well, someone else mentioned that some ensembles still are half-way going OTS basically.. which leads the Euro solution to seem viable. If I had to bet my life savings on the this whole thing, I would go with the Euro just because it's such a freakin' good model when all is said and done! It gets a lot of hate for specific things.. but this time it's sticking to it's guns as said above.. and it can not be ignored. Lets see what happens at 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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