packbacker Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Yeah I don't disagree that it's possible. It's just when models show extreme situations, I just remember things like blocking is usually weaker than forecast, tropical systems usually wind up farther east than forecast, and ULLs usuly don't dig as far south and are weaker than forecast. We'll see. Yep, yep and yep. I think it's reasonable for a large 3-5" QPF event. The HWRF did shift a littler further SW than it's 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sarcean Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Seems like the tracks on the model runs for tropical systems this year have been eratic as they usually are for winter storms. I don't recall them being this eratic in the past. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Seems like the tracks on the model runs for tropical systems this year have been eratic as they usually are for winter storms. I don't recall them being this eratic in the past. Seriously? Home grown storms off the SE coast especially late in the season are notoriously unpredictable, not to mention the overall setup is as complex and impossible to have nailed down as I have just about ever seen. The models will continue to flop all over the place and we wont have a good idea how this will play out till Thursday at the earliest...and even then it will still have a huge bust factor for the entire time its a storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Supercane Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Yeah I don't disagree that it's possible. It's just when models show extreme situations, I just remember things like blocking is usually weaker than forecast, tropical systems usually wind up farther east than forecast, and ULLs usuly don't dig as far south and are weaker than forecast. We'll see. Not to sound like the weenie here, but given the 18z GEFS, I'm not so sure this is done trending SW (as in, an Isabel-type track could become the favored scenario rather than a VA-north one). You're right that tropical cyclones around these parts tend to track a little more east than forecast, but I think that's more inside 48 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted September 30, 2015 Author Share Posted September 30, 2015 Noticeable shift west on 00Z suite compared to 18Z suite regarding #Joaquin tracks (via @TropicalTidbits) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Not to sound like the weenie here, but given the 18z GEFS, I'm not so sure this is done trending SW (as in, an Isabel-type track could become the favored scenario rather than a VA-north one). You're right that tropical cyclones around these parts tend to track a little more east than forecast, but I think that's more inside 48 hours. It could come west. This could be one of those times where the extreme solution comes to pass. I think we'll have a really good handle on at least the real rainfall potential after the 12Zs tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Yep, yep and yep. I think it's reasonable for a large 3-5" QPF event. The HWRF did shift a littler further SW than it's 12z run. I agree. At this point, 3-5" sounds very reasonable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Yep one more shift like that and its gonna be a heck of a weekend......the models should have the data from the extra balloons and G4 overnight and if the Euro comes back to the others then its game on I think for someone from SC to NJ or for all of us depending on how it tracks obviously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 really ramping up now, tomorrow it should take off as shear lessens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted September 30, 2015 Author Share Posted September 30, 2015 *IF* the storm should track onshore with any kind of sustained wind inland, after all of this 'pre-rain', it would cause some serious problems with trees down in the path of the storm. Shoot, even in the local disco this morning, they mentioned that simply with the cold frontal passage on Friday - with gusts to 40mph. I certainly don't want to be thinking about that scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 It really looks like this Saturday might shape up to be a birthday to remember. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted September 30, 2015 Author Share Posted September 30, 2015 Looks like a lot of the cold tops suddenly found the center of circulation in this loop... http://giphy.com/gifs/3oEduITk0bVJWD2Azm?tc=1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted September 30, 2015 Author Share Posted September 30, 2015 @TylerWTVO 8m8 minutes ago #GFDL model suggests #Joaquin moves further north and makes landfall around the Conn.-R.I. border Sunday evening. 10:03 PM - 29 Sep 2015 · Details Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Models are all over the place with the track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted September 30, 2015 Author Share Posted September 30, 2015 @TylerWTVO 10m10 minutes ago #HWRF model suggests landfall of #Joaquin near Virginia Beach, VA this Saturday evening around 00z. LOTS of rain! 10:03 PM - 29 Sep 2015 · Details Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Getting more and more intereting. Brad Panovich @wxbrad 6m6 minutes ago I sense a trend #Joaquin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
airmarci Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 The upper-level dynamics are fascinating. Most of the models appear to be locking in on Joaquin banking that westward turn. How much it turns looks to depend on how quickly that upper-level trough phases east and how much Joaquin's diabatic outflow can build that downstream ridge ahead of the trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted September 30, 2015 Author Share Posted September 30, 2015 As a weather enthusiast it's fascinating to see a storm dealing with so many other dynamic issues at the same time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 It is pretty insane looking at all the different things that are going to be in play and then to think we are relying on models to get all those details right so as to get this track right....... seems a bit much to ask of them. Crazy to think that a landfalling strong to major hurricane in NC is on the table now, and it kinda popped up out of nowhere.....still so much can and will change though but its looking like the heavy rainfall part is almost locked in and whether or not we have to deal with some serious wind in now the bigger question for me anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCHurricane Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 As a weather enthusiast it's fascinating to see a storm dealing with so many other dynamic issues at the same time. I'm right there with you. It will be a very interesting couple of days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 @TylerWTVO 10m10 minutes ago #HWRF model suggests landfall of #Joaquin near Virginia Beach, VA this Saturday evening around 00z. LOTS of rain! 10:03 PM - 29 Sep 2015 · Details I believe that was the 12z run. 18z had it in the OBX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 I believe that was the 12z run. 18z had it in the OBX. Whats so bad about that track is it would shove so much water up the sounds that all the rivers would be unable to drain all the rain from the PRE event, it would be like plugging the tub drain for a day while leaving the water running...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 The wind shear is loosing it's affect of holding this storm back. We are fixing to see some real deal rapid intensification over the next 24 to 48 hrs. The heat content in the water is through the charts. Beleive I read where it's as high as ever been recorded in this area of travel the soon to be Hurricane is fixing to journey over. By this time tomorrow will have a high cat 2, low cat 3 possible if the wind shear forecast is accurate. Read the latest post from jeff masters on weather underground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Whats so bad about that track is it would shove so much water up the sounds that all the rivers would be unable to drain all the rain from the PRE event, it would be like plugging the tub drain for a day while leaving the water running...... That's a really good analogy. There are so many things that can happen with this storm and as other's have said, it's absolutely fascinating. I feel like I'm tracking a historic event due to the shear amounts of rainfall alone. If everything comes together as some modeling suggests, someone is going to be dealing with a lot of tree cleanup I would imagine with any kiind of 45+ wind involved. Just an issue trying to figure out where and if of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AJF0602 Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 The beaches this week have taken a major beating with the onshore flow.. here in onslow county we have had a coastal flood warning since last week, even without landfall in nc the swell will be terrible not to mention the anomalous tides; couple this with the heavy rains we got last week, this situation is a bit disconcerting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted September 30, 2015 Author Share Posted September 30, 2015 70 mph... 988 mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted September 30, 2015 Author Share Posted September 30, 2015 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/0300Z 25.8N 71.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 30/1200Z 25.5N 72.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 01/0000Z 25.2N 73.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 01/1200Z 24.8N 74.1W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 02/0000Z 24.9N 74.5W 85 KT 100 MPH 72H 03/0000Z 26.7N 74.0W 90 KT 105 MPH 96H 04/0000Z 31.3N 72.5W 85 KT 100 MPH 120H 05/0000Z 35.5N 72.0W 80 KT 90 MPH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Its a cane now if they had a plane out there.......00Z should be starting up soon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Likes been stated it's amazing how out of nowhere this has unfolded today. These late Sept October storms are notorious for blowing up, rapidly Intensefyin. I read stories on Hazel even though it was in the Genesis of satelite Era how it caught the right window of opportunity , fall trof coming in going negative and ventilating as well as excelrating her perfectly to rewrite history. Caught everyone off guard until 48 hrs before she made her move. Not saying this will be a hazel but the October tropical storms are a different breed. Sandy, Hazel, the perfect storm. Got a feeling this one is going to write it's own chapter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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