Solak Posted October 2, 2015 Author Share Posted October 2, 2015 SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.8N 74.8W ABOUT 10 MI...15 KM N OF RUM CAY BAHAMAS ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM SW OF SAN SALVADOR BAHAMAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 0 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...8 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...942 MB...27.82 INCHES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 The Coast Guard is trying to find a ship that went missing in the Bahamas. http://www.wral.com/news/page/12706857/?break_id=13023 This is the ship. 23 or 33 on board depending on the news source. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted October 2, 2015 Author Share Posted October 2, 2015 SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.3N 74.3W ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM NNE SAN SALVADOR BAHAMAS ABOUT 795 MI...1280 KM SW OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...943 MB...27.85 INCHES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted October 3, 2015 Share Posted October 3, 2015 He is looking rough right now but the pressures were still low but winds had come up quite a bit, I wonder what if any him ragging out and weaking will do with the modeling....looks like he may end up going east or even south of east.....him weaking and or moving more east may shut off the moisture tap sooner.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted October 3, 2015 Share Posted October 3, 2015 He is looking rough right now but the pressures were still low but winds had come up quite a bit, I wonder what if any him ragging out and weaking will do with the modeling....looks like he may end up going east or even south of east.....him weaking and or moving more east may shut off the moisture tap sooner.. It moves further east because it got too strong, now it moves east cause it's too weak. Threads like this make you realize nobody knows anything and the reasons people give for things are way too simple to be the actual meteorological reasons for whats going on. When somebody figures it out, you'll probably need a PHD to understand it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted October 3, 2015 Author Share Posted October 3, 2015 800 AM EDT SAT OCT 03 2015 ...POWERFUL HURRICANE JOAQUIN MOVING AWAY FROM THE BAHAMAS... SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.6N 72.5W ABOUT 165 MI...270 KM NE OF SAN SALVADOR ABOUT 660 MI...1060 KM SW OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...940 MB...27.76 INCHES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted October 3, 2015 Share Posted October 3, 2015 At the key point in the forecast, it was the Euro vs. the World, and the Euro won....that's my main takeaway here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted October 3, 2015 Share Posted October 3, 2015 At the key point in the forecast, it was the Euro vs. the World, and the Euro won....that's my main takeaway here Practice for winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted October 3, 2015 Author Share Posted October 3, 2015 Stu Ostro 8 mins · The deep trough/cutoff over the southeast U.S.; Joaquin; a connection between the two contributing some moisture to the extreme rainfall; and a trough to the north of Joaquin, associated with the remnant of Ida, which helped provide a path of the hurricane away from North America rather than getting pulled in by the trough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AJF0602 Posted October 3, 2015 Share Posted October 3, 2015 Wowwwww special advisory,... upgraded to 155mph! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted October 3, 2015 Share Posted October 3, 2015 This special advisory is to adjust the initial and forecastintensity through 36 hours. An Air Force hurricane hunter planejust penetrated the eye of Joaquin and measured 144 kt at 700 mb andSFMR winds of around 135 kt. No change in the forecast track isnecessary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted October 3, 2015 Author Share Posted October 3, 2015 Impressive, considering how ragged it looked late yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted October 3, 2015 Share Posted October 3, 2015 GFS gets awful close to Bermuda they are on the wrong side too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted October 4, 2015 Share Posted October 4, 2015 Moral of the story: basically pay no attention to any model except the euro. According to about 15 models Wednesday night, we were 72 hours away from a major hurricane hitting NC. The GFS had a wind gust in Raleigh of 115 MPH tomorrow morning... Yet the euro had it offshore 1000miles. Unreal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hikingfool85 Posted October 4, 2015 Share Posted October 4, 2015 That is what happens when you have a system (models) that is several years behind. I wont bash either model but they have there pro's and cons. I want to know what we can do to fix them...and how they work. How would I got about making one? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted October 4, 2015 Author Share Posted October 4, 2015 From talk on TWC/WU show this week, there is supposed to be a major upgrade to the 'American model' in 2017. I would guess they were talking about the GFS. They avoided getting into the politics, but basically implied that it was the cost involved in the upgrade that is delaying it that long. They had a good discussion about the Euro vs the American models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted October 4, 2015 Share Posted October 4, 2015 From talk on TWC/WU show this week, there is supposed to be a major upgrade to the 'American model' in 2017. I would guess they were talking about the GFS. They avoided getting into the politics, but basically implied that it was the cost involved in the upgrade that is delaying it that long. They had a good discussion about the Euro vs the American models. It would be a lot cheaper for the NWS to just buy a Euro subscription and be done with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
a5ehren Posted October 4, 2015 Share Posted October 4, 2015 It would be a lot cheaper for the NWS to just buy a Euro subscription and be done with it. Eh. The US government needs to have a world-class in-house model in case relations with the EU deteriorate to the point where they won't sell us access. It's unlikely in the short term, but stranger things have happened in the long-term. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted October 4, 2015 Share Posted October 4, 2015 Eh. The US government needs to have a world-class in-house model in case relations with the EU deteriorate to the point where they won't sell us access. It's unlikely in the short term, but stranger things have happened in the long-term. Well, my comment was meant as sarcasm, but I'll take it a step further. We get almost everything else from overseas, why not this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted October 4, 2015 Share Posted October 4, 2015 Well, my comment was meant as sarcasm, but I'll take it a step further. We get almost everything else from overseas, why not this. Agreed. The other poster was right, the US does need a world class in house model, we don't have one yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted October 5, 2015 Author Share Posted October 5, 2015 How Joaquin was covered overseas... Hurricane Joaquin heads towards Britain after killing two in the United Stateshttps://uk.news.yahoo.com/hurricane-joaquin-heads-towards-britain-151036157.html#TpcdAzM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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