kvegas-wx Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Every OTS model has the track start barreling NE pretty soon. The thing is it's going to have to plow through that Atlantic high we can see pressing down on it from that direction. I can see a route it might take to get out without landfall, but it has to go way closer to the coast than any OTS models currently show. Bingo. Remember yesterday this time when we were all saying Joaquin needed to release NE immediately in order to make the OTS track of the Euro verify? Well since that time he has moved another 50-75 miles wsw, the ULL has progressed well to the NE and we still have the flow coming in quite clearly from Joaquins NE. I think there is a solid chance that some of the model members that showed a coastal runner could be dead on accurate. My bigger question is once he starts moving again does the ERC wrap up and he makes a Cat5? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxduncan Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 From GSP at least Here for me In Valdese NC Just East Of Morganton(Burke County). We still get 5-10inches and on top of that this High Wind Watch was issued for us: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MichaelJ Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 This will be OTS shortly as the EURO has been consistently saying that and now the GFS agrees, it's gone folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Suncat Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 This will be OTS shortly as the EURO has been consistently saying that and now the GFS agrees, it's gone folks. Not gone until it turns NE and commits to that track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Bingo. Remember yesterday this time when we were all saying Joaquin needed to release NE immediately in order to make the OTS track of the Euro verify? Well since that time he has moved another 50-75 miles wsw, the ULL has progressed well to the NE and we still have the flow coming in quite clearly from Joaquins NE. I think there is a solid chance that some of the model members that showed a coastal runner could be dead on accurate. My bigger question is once he starts moving again does the ERC wrap up and he makes a Cat5? I think the odds of a Cat 5 at this point are extremely low. The water temp is very favorable, but shear is increasing and the outflow channels that you need to have for a storm of that magnitude are being disrupted. Plus the inner core structure doesn't look nearly well defined enough to get there rapidly, which is what it would have to do, if it were to attain Cat 5 status. I agree with MichaelJ on the track as well. Lots of eye candy on the WV charts, but this one's gone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 This will be OTS shortly as the EURO has been consistently saying that and now the GFS agrees, it's gone folks. Guess we will see but living in the eastern part of NC I cant afford to write it off like that just yet....my wife has family ( a first cousin) that lives in George Town on Exhuma Island and they last posted on FB that things had gotten worse very quickly, they are roughly 50 miles west of the center at this time They live where the blue x is on this image, I should have some good video and stuff from them later Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 I agree it looks impossible for this thing to go NE right now but that's the thing the GFS/Euro doesn't have the center of the storm getting north of say Miami for 30 more hrs so the setup will look different by then....that's how I think we will know if the storm starts to move NW or N in earnest early then the chances of a capture are much much higher IMO.....but if it hangs out down there another day the models have it right. Spot on. If hangs tight another 24 then the HP will be configured, less pressing tomorow and give it a chennel to go bye bye. Its got to start moving 7mph plus on some sort of northerly trajectory over the next 6 or so hours to pull a Carolina Crusher shock the world model coup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Spot on. If hangs tight another 24 then the HP will be configured, less pressing tomorow and give it a chennel to go bye bye. Its got to start moving 7mph plus on some sort of northerly trajectory over the next 6 or so hours to pull a Carolina Crusher shock the world model coup. even moving NE now is not a automatic win for the OTS models almost all the hits to NC had NE motion as the storm left the Bahamas it is the when it leaves and not so much the direction that matters...if it started NE at 7-10 mph right now we would be in trouble.....the reason it isn't is the ridge to the NE isn't moving east fast enough and the flow on its west side is from north to south so its pushing the storm west but its hit the wall and you can see that on its western flank......so it is either gonna start moving north at a good pace soon or its gonna start to really get interrupted by the shear etc....... the ULL is slowly dropping almost due south and is a little slower and west of the models but we would need the cane to move 150- 200 miles north in the next 24 hrs for there to be a real threat of a capture and I don't see it wanting to move that much......really the ridge is trapping it and not letting if go north and then by the time it finally does relax enough the ULL will be to far south or at least that's the logic behind the OTS models and its a sound logic if the storm doesn't find a way to get moving ....really a amazing WV loop you wont see stuff like this very often. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/flash-wv.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 I am surprised people are still talking about this. Looks like it is headed out to sea and won't hit anyone now. Indeed. Why would we talk about weather if it has nothing to do with their backyard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Indeed. Why would we talk about weather if it has nothing to do with their backyard. If it heads out to sea it's not going to hit anyone's backyard. But I guess it's still too soon to call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 NAM captures it at hour 60. I think I'm sticking with the Euro and RGEM for the upcoming winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Lol at the NAM. Where's Packbacker to give us the pbp? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Its moving in a Easterly direction now....It's over in terms of a Landfall now.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Lol at the NAM. Where's Packbacker to give us the pbp? 6z was farther south, but the 12z still slings it towards the NC coast at hour 60. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Lol at the NAM. Where's Packbacker to give us the pbp? LOL...Haven't even looked at the 12km NAM, it should really be decommissioned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 OBX! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 It looks like it's going to do a little loop d loop thing right along the coast and then scoot away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ECUPiratewx Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 It aint moving east, if anything it moving just barely east of due north and even then ts moving so slowly its hard to say for sure.....watch that loop it would be virtually impossible for it to move east or even ENE.... http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/flash-wv.html Here's a pretty good view. There's a little "wobble" to the east, then it looks to be going N (or perhaps NNE) from there. http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimic-tc/2015_11L/webManager/basicGifDisplay.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Here's a pretty good view. There's a little "wobble" to the east, then it looks to be going N (or perhaps NNE) from there. http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimic-tc/2015_11L/webManager/basicGifDisplay.html Does look like a bit of acceleration north there at the end but the loop is so short its hard to say..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted October 2, 2015 Author Share Posted October 2, 2015 The squeeze is on... http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/flash-wv.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Buh bye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Buh bye. That is the same track Joe Bastardi gave to clients Wednesday morning ;-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted October 2, 2015 Author Share Posted October 2, 2015 1100 AM EDT FRI OCT 02 2015 An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft has reported 700-mb flight-level winds of 124 kt in the southeastern eyewall, along with an eyewall dropsonde that supports surface winds of 110-115 kt. Based on these data, the intensity remains 115 kt. The latest central pressure indicated by the aircraft data is 939 mb. While the hurricane continues to produce cloud tops of -80C in the eyewall, the eye is ragged and poorly defined in satellite imagery. Joaquin has turned northward during the past few hours and the initial motion is now 360/3. Water vapor imagery shows a mid- to upper-level ridge to the north and northeast of the hurricane, while a deep-layer trough and associated surface front are located over the southeastern United States. This system is forecast to move slowly eastward with a non-tropical low forming along the front during the next couple of days. These developments should steer Joaquin northward to northeastward during the next 12 hours or so, followed by a faster motion toward the northeast. The GFS, UKMET, and ECMWF are now in better agreement that Joaquin will move generally northeastward through 48 hours, followed by a more northward turn between 48 and 72 hours. This is then followed by movement into the westerlies and acceleration toward the east- northeast after 72 hours. The new forecast track is adjusted to the east of the previous track after 24 hours, and it lies between the previous track and the model consensus. Some additional eastward adjustments to the track may occur on the next advisory based on the 1200 UTC model runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 That is the same track Joe Bastardi gave to clients Wednesday morning ;-) I was just about to say that. Credit where it's due. Hopefully he'll be right about his winter forecast as well.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 The squeeze is on... http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/flash-wv.html Yep what it does over the next say 12-18 hrs will set the course it takes, if it starts moving north now at 6-10 mph the models may shift back west a good deal the OTS models have it even with Miami's latitude for the next day this is the GFS panel for 30 hrs from now that's about 175 miles NE of its current position.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 The Coast Guard is trying to find a ship that went missing in the Bahamas. http://www.wral.com/news/page/12706857/?break_id=13023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Joaquin literally bounced off an island to make that northern jog, haha. **Time sensitive: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 KUDOS to Joe Bastardi: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/flash-wv.html Look at WV and The HP that's been pushing our Cane SW is now building, rolling over top because the old 99L or whatever # it was labeled has punched a weakness in the big ridge. Joaquin is gonna escape off to the NE underneath the ridge following the remnants of the old tropical invest> You can see it plain as day in this loop Solak linked starting to unfold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 The ridge nosing in to the north seals the deal on any chances on a EC landfall the storm would have to accelerate to the NNW at a good clip to beat it and that doesnt look very likely at all less than 10% chance and that is being generous.....if it does however it will be the biggest bust EVER lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jet Stream Rider Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Joaquin literally bounced off an island to make that northern jog, haha. **Time sensitive: Its amazing how they do that. That's Long Island I believe, and that small one in the eye wall is Rum Cay. Yikes. May all in the path be well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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