BIG FROSTY Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 We know what it is going to say. Probably should have hit the sack after the GFS. Yeah, I will be shocked if it comes west much if at all? it's been awful steady with it's path..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 MidAtl thread PBP says go to bed. Not much new. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Euro trended a good deal north and west, much faster too. It may not seem significant but with all other models tonight mostly trending NW then we need to watch it closely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncskywarn Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 I like this quote from WxWatcher007 on the mid atlantic board "Man, the NHC folks have to be pulling their hair out." Joaquin is a good 150 miles west at least on the Euro almost begging to be captured. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Regan Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 There seems to be argument over what is a cat 4 and a cat 3. Wral keeps saying it's at 130mph now, however the nhc says 135mph now????? NHC has a scale that says 130 and 135 are cat 4. Just last night it was 130mph on Wral and NHC and both saying a cat 4.... So, how does Wral decide this morning it's a cat 3 at 130mph? It's like Wral uses the 2 saffir's I've seen at whim. Plus, Wral said all the models are including the euro, are still coming in east. Litterally, they never moved west during the night????? Can someone elaborate on this and help us out because I noticed a lot of people on social media asking the same question and some have been redacting and going back to cat 4 in their posts were earlier they say cat 3 mentioned. I noticed even a few news channels corrected themselves too. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncskywarn Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 There seems to be argument over what is a cat 4 and a cat 3. Wral keeps saying it's at 130mph now, however the nhc says 135mph now????? NHC has a scale that says 130 and 135 are cat 4. Just last night it was 130mph on Wral and NHC and both saying a cat 4.... So, how does Wral decide this morning it's a cat 3 at 130mph? It's like Wral uses the 2 saffir's I've seen at whim. Plus, Wral said all the models are including the euro, are still coming in east. Litterally, they never moved west during the night????? Can someone elaborate on this and help us out because I noticed a lot of people on social media asking the same question and some have been redacting and going back to cat 4 in their posts were earlier they say cat 3 mentioned. I noticed even a few news channels corrected themselves too. Thanks. NHC is actually showing the winds at 130 MPH also but either waytheit's still a cat 4. In reference to the fact they're saying t models are coming in East they are referring to still being OTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Regan Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 NHC says sustained winds 135mph i just looked. either way, I agree it's a 4. News is saying a 3 even 2 mins ago. Some stations saying 132mph. I know we are arguing about small numbers, but I'm questioning the consistency in reporting. I just saw Wilmington had near 3in just overnight and its working it's way here to add to this. thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncskywarn Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 NHC says sustained winds 135mph i just looked. either way, I agree it's a 4. News is saying a 3 even 2 mins ago. I just saw Wilmington had near 3in just overnight and its working it's way here to add to this. thanks Not sure where you're seeing 135 MPH. And not sure why WRAL is saying cat 3.5:00 AM EDT Fri Oct 2 Location: 23.3°N 74.7°W Moving: NW at 3 mph Min pressure: 935 mb Max sustained: 130 mph Just copied and pasted from the NHC website. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Regan Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at1+shtml/084015.shtml?5-daynl#contents This is the image and info various news are sharing. Again, we are seeing 130, 132, and 135mph on media. either way, I agree it is a cat 4, unlike many reports just this last hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncskywarn Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at1+shtml/084015.shtml?5-daynl#contents This is the image and info various news are sharing. Again, we are seeing 130, 132, and 135mph on media. either way, I agree it is a cat 4, unlike many reports just this last hour. That's actually funny I didn't notice that but on the main website and in the public advisory it does say 130 mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Regan Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Apples and Oranges.... but if its a 3 say it is a 3. If it is a 4, say it is a 4! lol Again, Wral in the last 24hrs has said 130mph is a 4 and now 130mph is a 3. That's crazy to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Apples and Oranges.... but if its a 3 say it is a 3. If it is a 4, say it is a 4! lol Again, Wral in the last 24hrs has said 130mph is a 4 and now 130mph is a 3. That's crazy to me. 130 was a 3 until recently when the lower bound of the category 4 range was changed from 131 to 130. I'm sure they are making an honest mistake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Regan Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 I wondered about that. I've seen both scales online. Their keys still actually says 131 is a 4. They didn't change it and have been see sawing on the old and new. Again, thanks for the replies!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted October 2, 2015 Author Share Posted October 2, 2015 Recon just made it's first morning pass. 935mb, 125 knots flight level. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted October 2, 2015 Author Share Posted October 2, 2015 SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.4N 74.8W ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM NNE OF CLARENCE LONG ISLAND BAHAMAS ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM SSW OF SAN SALVADOR BAHAMAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...937 MB...27.67 INCHES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AJF0602 Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 The water vapor loop is cool to look at, you can see the cloud envelope of Joaquin being folded into the flow right into the carolinas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 The water vapor loop is cool to look at, you can see the cloud envelope of Joaquin being folded into the flow right into the carolinas. Can you post a link. Tia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 If the storm was off the GA coast instead of the Florida coast (futher north) It would be coming inbound over the Carolinas. You can see just by looking at teh wv loop I just posted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted October 2, 2015 Author Share Posted October 2, 2015 Can you post a link. Tia. Here's one http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/se/mflash-wv.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AJF0602 Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Lol it would be a board meltdown if we got nam'ed not to mention just pure chaos because of no watches or warnings. Looking at that loop what is exactly supposed to cause a weakness? That flow over the Atlantic looks like it doesn't want to let anything thru lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Use the cork in the stream analogy JB uses and watch the clouds out in front that shows you the path. Watch it over the next 24 hrs and it will tell you where this thing is headed. Also notice the pinch from HP to the canes NE and ULL to its NW. They will both force it north today. It will have to start moving now and want be allow to sit idle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 You can Joaquin getting compressed on the NE side. He is going to continue to get pushed west into the fla coast. Once the ULL to the north pulls out Joaquin will follow the path north into the OBX. Take the NHC track and shift it to the coast and I'll buy in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 I am surprised people are still talking about this. Looks like it is headed out to sea and won't hit anyone now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bhs1975 Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Big shift east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 The BAMS would destroy the economies in Georgia and Florida. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AJF0602 Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Guess it comes down to capture or no capture, those ones that take it ots start a NE turn like asap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CanadianGuy Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Guess it comes down to capture or no capture, those ones that take it ots start a NE turn like asap.Looks like it is still moving NW on visible..Sent from my XT1563 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Use the cork in the stream analogy JB uses and watch the clouds out in front that shows you the path. Watch it over the next 24 hrs and it will tell you where this thing is headed. Also notice the pinch from HP to the canes NE and ULL to its NW. They will both force it north today. It will have to start moving now and want be allow to sit idle. Looks like its getting slightly squished and orienting NW to SE some. That NE side is looking flattened out somewhat to me. Won't mean anything in the end because the models shifted east again but just solely looking at WV its hard to see this thing wanting to move due northeast into a high that's sliding SW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shemATC Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Every OTS model has the track start barreling NE pretty soon. The thing is it's going to have to plow through that Atlantic high we can see pressing down on it from that direction. I can see a route it might take to get out without landfall, but it has to go way closer to the coast than any OTS models currently show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Looks like its getting slightly squished and orienting NW to SE some. That NE side is looking flattened out somewhat to me. Won't mean anything in the end because the models shifted east again but just solely looking at WV its hard to see this thing wanting to move due northeast into a high that's sliding SW. I agree it looks impossible for this thing to go NE right now but that's the thing the GFS/Euro doesn't have the center of the storm getting north of say Miami for 30 more hrs so the setup will look different by then....that's how I think we will know if the storm starts to move NW or N in earnest early then the chances of a capture are much much higher IMO.....but if it hangs out down there another day the models have it right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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