downeastnc Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 RGEM is west a bit of the 18Z plots thru 15......and then goes OTS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 0z REG Updated. Has an OTS track. @hr 48 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CanadianGuy Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 First peek at the Bahamas ground conditions... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Cak3aSSLY4w&app=desktop That looks very intense. A lot of people didn't evacuate when it turns out they should have... This is because Joaquin went farther west than forecast. I would hate to be on Crooked Island right now. They've had hurricane strength winds, heavy rain, and storm surge since around noon hour with no breaks.Sent from my XT1563 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 RGEM says 12km is wrong. Almost identical to NHC and its 18z run give of take a few miles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 First peek at the Bahamas ground conditions... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Cak3aSSLY4w&app=desktop That was uploaded 10 hours ago so that footage must have been from before the eyewall was near/over that island as that same individual posted a video from the Turks and Caicos just an hour ago. I can't imagine him being able to do that if they had not got out of there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 GFS time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Not much talk of potential tornado chances around South Carolina. The possibility is there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 gfs looks pretty similar to 18z thru 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 not going to change here i dont think, ots again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Hour 45 is interesting. See where she goes. Edit: looking like an escape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Hour 45 is interesting. See where she goes. Edit: looking like an escape. it looks close at 57, a lot of interaction but it may be too far north, probably going to get punted. edit: 60hrs it's gone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Joaquin has lost its slight northern component and is moving West again.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Yeah but this run was closer to a capture than the previous a little more west and it would have happened, I bet even more ens members come back west when they come out this was a baby step back to the coast......interesting enough to keep me from writing it off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 I dont care what is happening at 60 hours if the situation at 24 hours is evolving. Joaquin is still not aligned with the models and is consistently sw of forecasts run after run. 24 more hours of this and we may see the energy to the east weaken just enough to let Joaquin slip west for good. He's a stubborn one for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Actually this run is way further west afte 60 hrs and this is actually quite a west jump overall for the GFS it might actually hit Cape Cod or the Maritimes..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 The clear trend I see to watch is the models are shifting west again. Nam did in a huge way, GFS did some and RGEM went west some also. If CMC, UK and Euro follow suit then once again the east coast will be under the gun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Actually this run is way further west afte 60 hrs and this is actually quite a west jump overall for the GFS it might actually hit Cape Cod or the Maritimes..... yeah close call for Cape Cod...wow the GFS won't leave us alone. It looked like it was OTS for sure, guess the increased interaction just turned it gliding along the east coast. I'm interested to see the 0z ens for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Actually this run is way further west afte 60 hrs and this is actually quite a west jump overall for the GFS it might actually hit Cape Cod or the Maritimes..... It was really close, if we wake up and it's west of 75w there is a chance. Long shot... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 11pm update shows 3mph movement due west. So 12 more hours and it will roughly be 50 miles further wsw. If that holds true he will hit FL with storm conditions, landfall or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMA1973 Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 It was really close, if we wake up and it's west of 75w there is a chance. Long shot... Lets hope its a long shot! Are we wanting this to come in? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 11pm update shows 3mph movement due west. So 12 more hours and it will roughly be 50 miles further wsw. If that holds true he will hit FL with storm conditions, landfall or not. It should start a NNE jog in 9 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxduncan Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Time for the CMC run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Enough. Stay on topic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Time for the CMC run. CMC hits Virginia Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 CMC looks a little SE gonna come in further up the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 The 00z Canadian has the landfall near Norfolk. Looks like the NAVGEM is going to have a landfall near Morehead City. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sarcean Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 The 00z Canadian has the landfall near Norfolk. Looks like the NAVGEM is going to have a landfall near Morehead City. Morehead is always good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Hello Euro! Who's around for PBP? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Hello Euro! Who's around for PBP? I'm here watching for somebody pbp.... It's thundering here right now, just had a .40 in just a few minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 We know what it is going to say. Probably should have hit the sack after the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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