wolfman23601 Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Predictions for 0z runs? Lol Sent from my iPhone GFS OBX Euro OTC Sent from my XT1254 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CanadianGuy Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Predictions for 0z runs? Lol Sent from my iPhone Western trendSent from my XT1563 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted October 2, 2015 Author Share Posted October 2, 2015 Hypothetical question.... what happens if the ULL in KY/TN stalls or retrogrades? I do realize there is more energy digging around the S side base of the trough, but, what if??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Predictions for 0z runs? Lol Sent from my iPhone Continue SW into Cuba with an eventual turn into the Gulf, striking the FL panhandle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Hypothetical question.... what happens if the ULL in KY/TN stalls or retrogrades? I do realize there is more energy digging around the S side base of the trough, but, what if??? The models would have shown it by now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Look at the pull starting on the NW and W side http://images.intell...2_None_anim.gif Credit to Ravens94 in the midatl thread. Certainly raises an eyebrow. I mean cmon, if this thing finds any influence that shifts it even 50 miles west you will have tropical storm force conditions along the florida coast with absolutely no warning. There is a razor thin margin for error here so I sincerely hope the euro is indeed accurate. Fwiw, Ocracoke has mandatory evax. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted October 2, 2015 Author Share Posted October 2, 2015 LOL --- told the wife this evening that I would make a more reasonable prediction once the storm hit Cuba Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Predictions for 0z runs? Lol Sent from my iPhone Same as 12z runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Continue SW into Cuba with an eventual turn into the Gulf, striking the FL panhandle. Kidding aside, a 12z Euro ensemble member had it doing something like that. Just one though! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted October 2, 2015 Author Share Posted October 2, 2015 There should be a new center pass from recon in about 20 minutes... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 There should be a new center pass from recon in about 20 minutes... That has got to be one hell of a ride. Part of me wants to do it and part of me says, WTF are you thinking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 There should be a new center pass from recon in about 20 minutes... Looks like they are thinking its moved North Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Kidding aside, a 12z Euro ensemble member had it doing something like that. Just one though! Ha nice! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxduncan Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Final Forecast Rain Totals From Brad For Western NC: PS: I live in Valdese NC just 5miles East Of Morganton NC So 10-15inches Of Rain For me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 There should be a new center pass from recon in about 20 minutes... 937mb now womp womp... Eyewall replacement Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 What is the typical ERC? A few hours? A day? Does it vary depending on the size of the storm and diameter of the eye? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goldman75 Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 According to the 8pm update, looks like the storm should be heading north right now, if not a tad NNE. The last loop I saw a few minutes ago looked as if it had a slight wnw tug. Perhaps it will pull straight up, but it's definetely taking its time. The only forcast I'm comfortable with ATM is somewhere north of where it's at now lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted October 2, 2015 Author Share Posted October 2, 2015 Wind down a little, pressure up a little. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Damn that looks like it is going to get shoved completely into the GOM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Is there any way we could sticky a post to the first page of this thread with some of these awesome auto-updating images to refer to easily? There are many scattered through here that are hard to go back to/remember the pages they are on. There seems to be some changes versus exact modeling ongoing that could have a chance to affect the eventual track. Nothing crazy yet, but you never know... social media is starting to mention it at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Damn that looks like it is going to get shoved completely into the GOM. takes time, grasshopper .... :~) there's stuff I don't think models are latched on to yet ..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 What is the 12 km NAM up to...nothing like its 18z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 What is the 12 km NAM up to...nothing like its 18z run Seems faster and more NW so far could be the beginning of a pretty big west shift....but its the NAM soooo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 What is the 12 km NAM up to...nothing like its 18z run. Looks like it might move towards more interaction with the ULL to me thus far... Looks like our cane is further NW and the ULL is a bit south out to hr 24. Of course, we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted October 2, 2015 Author Share Posted October 2, 2015 latest_wv_loop.gif The force field is strong in this one. Quite an impressive resistance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 What is the 12 km NAM up to...nothing like its 18z run. Go on.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 NAM is at least 75-100 mile NW at 24 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 yea nam def west early Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Yeah, very close to interaction by 29. Cmon' not again... at least it's just the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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