Cold Rain Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Lol still going south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 I would like to see pictures of what crooked island looks like after this storm has passed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted October 1, 2015 Author Share Posted October 1, 2015 931.1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted October 1, 2015 Author Share Posted October 1, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 I would like to see pictures of what crooked island looks like after this storm has passed. They may have to rename it straight island Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Cat 5 ???? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AJF0602 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Crazy just looking at the water vapor loop and the flow you would think this thing would be guided right into the US. Its cool learning about the upper air patterns and players on the field; this is such a complex situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 The cloud canopy is getting ready to start brushing the Cuban coast. Thing has goten alot futher south than I ever thought it would. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 The cloud canopy is getting ready to start brushing the Cuban coast. Thing has goten alot futher south than I ever thought it would. Euro has actually forecasted it to move north several hours ago in previous runs. Will be interesting to see what the 0z suit shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Lol still going south. West jog now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted October 1, 2015 Author Share Posted October 1, 2015 SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.9N 74.5W ABOUT 25 MI...45 KM ESE OF CLARENCE TOWN LONG ISLAND BAHAMAS ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM S OF SAN SALVADOR BAHAMAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 250 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...931 MB...27.49 INCHES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CanadianGuy Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Cat 5 ???? Nope, they kept it at Category 4 strength. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 West jog now. It almost looks like he bounces off the island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yotaman Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 I read on a another site that the eye has shrunk down to 12 nautical miles. Amazing. I wish we had a radar image of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Here is the 12Z GFS ens members tracks here is the latest 18Z GFS ens member tracks... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 ^ West trend?! Also, thanks for the sat loop, Jon. We'll see if it continues or takes another south jog. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CanadianGuy Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Here is the 18Z GFS ens members tracks Certainly more members making landfall. As I warned people earlier, it was too early to call a non event/OTS. 0z might trend west again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Why do I have a sinking feeling that this isnt over by a longshot? Can we agree that we are in uncharted territory as far as model complexity on an east coast storm? And the conditions around Joaquin are changing as well as he just sits there and destroys a perfectly good vacation spot. 24 more hours and this ULL is going to be a lesser influence in the model runs and some other pop up feature stands a reasonable chance of adjusting the forecast track. This is about as crazy as it gets folks. A near Cat5 storm parked 100 miles off the coast of Miami and no one is to be concerned?? So bizarre. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CanadianGuy Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 This is about as crazy as it gets folks. A near Cat5 storm parked 100 miles off the coast of Miami and no one is to be concerned?? So bizarre. Model huggers called the threat over for the US at 06z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Why do I have a sinking feeling that this isnt over by a longshot? Can we agree that we are in uncharted territory as far as model complexity on an east coast storm? And the conditions around Joaquin are changing as well as he just sits there and destroys a perfectly good vacation spot. 24 more hours and this ULL is going to be a lesser influence in the model runs and some other pop up feature stands a reasonable chance of adjusting the forecast track. This is about as crazy as it gets folks. A near Cat5 storm parked 100 miles off the coast of Miami and no one is to be concerned?? So bizarre. The Euro, man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 It is a rather fluid situation and the consensus may be OTS but for people like many of us the ramifications of the models being wrong and this doing the NC option is pretty serious. Typically WNW turning storms tend to hold up better and we could easily be dealing with strong Cat 2 to a high end 3 if for whatever reason the storms end up going to NC...and its easy to say meh the Euro is king blah blah blah but if its wrong.............what really sucks is if it does trend back west we wasted a day or so thinking its going OTS and I would think unless all the models have major jumps west the return to a landfall solution will be gradual and wont leave much time... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 ^ West trend?! Also, thanks for the sat loop, Jon. We'll see if it continues or takes another south jog. Yeah it did...check the link, it just updated after I posted it haha....goes right between the islands and turns west again it appears. Maybe NW next Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Model huggers called the threat over for the US at 06z Katrina forecast 72 hours out...just saying. Big canes are notoriously hard to model. http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2005/graphics/AT12/13.AL1205W.GIF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
geddyweather Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Katrina forecast 72 hours out...just saying. Big canes are notoriously hard to model. http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2005/graphics/AT12/13.AL1205W.GIF Basically, that is why I'm not committing to any specific model/solution yet. Still way too unpredictable this far out, especially with how some models have performed this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CanadianGuy Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Katrina forecast 72 hours out...just saying. Big canes are notoriously hard to model. http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2005/graphics/AT12/13.AL1205W.GIF And that's why it's always a good idea not to jump on one or two model or ensemble runs that are abruptly different from previous ones. Keeping an open mind for multiple scenerios is necessary during a fluid setup like this. I did not and still am not ruling out a Carolina landfall..Sent from my GT-N8010 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 I think it's pretty likely this goes by us, but the storm is very strong, the trough position and strength are quite anomalous, and the ridge to the north is pretty strong. It's a fairly unusual setup that, according to the models at least, looks to yield a fairly usual track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Katrina forecast 72 hours out...just saying. Big canes are notoriously hard to model. http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2005/graphics/AT12/13.AL1205W.GIF that cone wasn't wrong though. The "center" of the cone is not where they expect it to go exactly... And Katrina made landfall in Mississippi so... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chase2211 Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 How close is it to cat 5? Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 How close is it to cat 5? Sent from my iPhone ~26mph away. Still has a ways to go to achieve that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chase2211 Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Predictions for 0z runs? Lol Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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