Jon Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 The further SW it goes, wouldn't that possibly change the interaction with the ULL? I think the farther SW it goes, the more apt it will be to get punted by the ULL instead of incorporated. You'd want it to be trucking NW by now, if you want it to be captured. Yeah. Essentially want it to be as close to the coast as possible and get out ahead of the ULL (aka be faster) so unless Joaquin can speed up it's getting punted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Like Jon said its all about timing, the Euro and GFS keep him down in the Bahamas for the next 24-30 hrs, most of the model runs that have a landfall have him moving north by later tonight into tomorrow so if he is stalled and hanging out near where he is now by tomorrow morning then I think the OTS will be locked in.....if he turns north and is moving NW or N by tomorrow morning at a decent clip then I think maybe the OTS isnt a sure thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Like Jon said its all about timing, the Euro and GFS keep him down in the Bahamas for the next 24-30 hrs, most of the model runs that have a landfall have him moving north by later tonight into tomorrow so if he is stalled and hanging out near where he is now by tomorrow morning then I think the OTS will be locked in.....if he turns north and is moving NW or N by tomorrow morning at a decent clip then I think maybe the OTS isnt a sure thing. He is currently sailing in a southwesterly direction for some reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CanadianGuy Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 He is currently sailing in a southwesterly direction for some reason.Looking at visible it appears the eye began moving NW 40 minutes ago. It will be interesting to see the 5pm update.Sent from my XT1563 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Looking at visible it appears the eye began moving NW 40 minutes ago. It will be interesting to see the 5pm update. Sent from my XT1563 Good deal. It's been about that amount of time since I looked at it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 He is currently sailing in a southwesterly direction for some reason.The wedge! Remember your lesson for this event and practice chanting it: don't be in the bullseye 5 days out! Mostly applies to winter! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Looking at visible it appears the eye began moving NW 40 minutes ago. It will be interesting to see the 5pm update. Sent from my XT1563 Great. I always wanted to travel the streets like I was in Venice, Italy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 The wedge! Remember your lesson for this event and practice chanting it: don't be in the bullseye 5 days out! Mostly applies to winter! Never underestimate the power of the wedge. And tropical systems usually end up farther east than modeled. Now where have I heard that last one before? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Track changes since the Hurricane Center began issuing a "cone": http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2015/graphics/al11/loop_5W.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 5pm track update by NHC cone barely touches OBX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 The eye looks to be tightening , 5pm adv still has 130mph winds, but acknowledge it could be stronger, haven't had a plane out in awhile ! Looks to be getting better organized , and if they have an 8 pm adv, look for winds to be 140-145 IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Most likely we are seeing little cyclonic loops as the eye wall evens out so the loops can look like its moving one way when its not....I would say averaged out he has been mostly west the last 6 hrs or so, with a south wobble recently and maybe slowing down a bit but that could also be a bit of eye retraction......really its gonna take a huge bust now for this thing to hit the EC and the thing to look for is a faster motion to the north than forecast this thing has to be getting NW or N and a good clip to match the timing and evolution of the pattern the landfalling runs had....and even then if the ULL is faster/stronger it wont matter its still OTS. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/11L/flash-rbtop-long.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CanadianGuy Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 NHC's new cone map keeps Joaquin out at sea. Sent from my XT1563 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMA1973 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Why do folks want a landfalling hurricane? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Why do folks want a landfalling hurricane? probably because they've never been in one - one is one too many unless you haven't taken your meds in which case - PM Jon ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Why do folks want a landfalling hurricane? Because Venice Italy looks like fun so why not here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CanadianGuy Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Why do folks want a landfalling hurricane?We don't? I hope you aren't confusing my concern of a psbl east coast event as excitement.Sent from my XT1563 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 GFS up and running if there is no west correction this run then the fat lady will be warming up on the EC threat...the NAM did seem to have a capture solution with a likely NC landfall but yeah its the 84 hr NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 GFS is gonna be OTS again identical to the 12Z run thru 60hrs.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted October 1, 2015 Author Share Posted October 1, 2015 Hard to believe it all started with this... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Hard to believe it all started with this... My oh my how the last two "notice worthy" systems have shown how much more there is to learn about Tropical Cyclones. (Erika and now Joaquin.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Very interesting! Wounder what will happen next. I can see why it isnt moving N or NE already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted October 1, 2015 Author Share Posted October 1, 2015 Recon is inside the storm now... wonder if they'll find any strengthening as alluded to in the 5:00 discussion? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Is it at all possible that Joaquin ends up over Cuba ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted October 1, 2015 Author Share Posted October 1, 2015 Very interesting! Wounder what will happen next. I can see why it isnt moving N or NE already. Do you know what level that wind field is at? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Do you know what level that wind field is at? 500mb This thing aint going anywhere anytime soon with that jet slamming it down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted October 1, 2015 Author Share Posted October 1, 2015 Nice pinhole eye, it appears. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Well if this pans out as OTS then big cuddos to the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Ryan maue said on Twitter should be cat 5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeSuck Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 This thing looks amazing! Where was the last geographical location to experience a major hurricane (and strengthening) sit over them like this has over the Bahamas for up to 48 hours? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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