jshetley Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 Mby is the big blue whole of nothing on this map! I consider that a win at this juncture! Never want to be bullseyed 3-6 days out! I don't think we want what is over the eastern half of NC to come down here though. Another 1-2 inches of rain would be nice though. By the way, the sun showed back up over here this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...AS OF 400 PM TUESDAY......GROWING CONCERN THAT A SIGNIFICANT RAIN EVENT FROM LATETHURSDAY THROUGH LATE SATURDAY COULD RESULT IN FLOODING ACROSSPORTIONS OF CENTRAL NC...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY CHALLENGING LONG TERM FORECAST WITH THEINTERACTION OF MULTIPLE ANOMALOUS FEATURES INCLUDING A NEGATIVELYTILTED UPPER TROUGH THAT EVOLVES INTO A CLOSED LOW AND TROPICALSTORM JOAQUIN WILL DETERMINE. STILL THE DETERMINISTIC GFS AND ECHANDLE THE LARGER SCALE FEATURES QUITE SIMILARLY THROUGH 12Z SATWITH THEIR ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOWING CONSIDERABLE SPREAD.A SUMMARY OF THE BIG PICTURE PLAYERS DURING THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH ACOLD FRONT THAT SHOULD HAVE REACHED THE CAROLINA COAST BY THURSDAYMORNING AS ITS PARENT UPPER TROUGH CLOSES OFF OVER THE WESTERN TNVALLEY. A DEEP FLOW OF TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL STREAM NORTHWARD FROMTHE CARIBBEAN AND SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC IN PROXIMITY OF JOAQUIN INTOTHE SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF THE CLOSED LOW. THE CLOSED LOW WILL DROPSLOWLY SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN AL/GA BY FRIDAY MORNING AND THEN LIFTSLOWLY NORTH AND BECOME ELONGATED WITH A NEGATIVE TILT BY SATURDAYMORNING BEFORE TRANSITIONING NORTH INTO THE CAROLINAS BY SUNDAYMORNING.DURING THE 72 HOUR PERIOD FROM 12Z THURSDAY TO 12Z SUNDAYBOTH THE DETERMINISTIC GFS AND EC PAINT AN ARC OF HEAVY RAIN FROM THECAPE FEAR/CRYSTAL COAST REGION NORTHWEST ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL NCINTO SW VIRGINIA. DURING THIS PERIOD THE GFS DROPS 6-9 INCHES OFRAIN OVER THE EASTERN PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAIN WHILE THE ECMWFDUMPS 7-12+ INCHES OF RAIN. THE MEAN OF GEFS 21 MEMBER ENSEMBLEGENERALLY PROVIDES LESS THAN HALF OF OPERATIONAL GFS QPF WITH THEOPERATIONAL GFS CLOSE TO THE WETTEST MEMBER. MMEFS ENSEMBLE HYDROGUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT SIGNIFICANT RIVER FLOODING IS NOT LIKELY ANDTHAT LOCAL FLOODING ON STREAMS AND CREEKS AND IN URBAN/POOR DRAINAGEAREAS MAY BE THE MOST PROBLEMATIC. SEE THE HYDROLOGY DISCUSSIONBELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.IN ADDITION TO THE HEAVY RAIN...A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LEADTO STRENGTHENING NORTHEAST WINDS ON FRIDAY THAT WILL VEER AROUND ASA SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW APPROACHES ON SATURDAY.HIGHS DURING THE PERIOD WILL RANGE IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70 WITH LOWSIN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.FORECAST CONFIDENCE DECREASES NOTABLY FOR THE THE LATE SUNDAYTHROUGH TUESDAY TIME PERIOD AS THE GUIDANCE DIFFERENCE WITH THEHANDLING OF THE CLOSED LOW. THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND MOST OF THE GEFSMEMBERS LIFT THE SYSTEM INTO THE NORTHEAST ON MONDAY AND TUESDAYRESULTING IN POTENTIALLY A COUPLE DAYS OF MUCH NEEDED DRY WEATHEREARLY NEXT WEEK. IN CONTRAST... THE EC VERY SLOWLY DRIFTS THE UPPERLOW TO THE CAROLINA COAST BY TUESDAY MORNING RESULTING IN ANOTHERDAY OR POSSIBLY TWO OF UNSETTLED WEATHER. USED HPC GUIDANCE FOR THELATER PART OF THE FORECAST WHICH PROVIDES SOME DRYING EARLY NEXTWEEK.&&.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...AS OF 230 PM TUESDAY... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 18z 4km NAM going beast mode... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 How much for GSP ?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 Well I was pretty convinced this was a OTS scenario when I laided down this am ( I am working nights ) and now it looks like the SW drift has changed up the ballgame a lot, basically it makes a OTS or further SE hit the two more likely scenarios...... This setup looks to possibly produce a classic PRE event over NC but without a actual landfall from the main low.....really crazy setup and these are the type of unusual and rare setups that can produce these major events. Really hope its wrong way to much rain the 7 day WPC QPF map would be a major flooding threat to 10's of millions of people Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yotaman Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 For once I really hope we do not get that much rain. Ground is completely saturated here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AJF0602 Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 The first thing that comes to mind here in eastern nc is what shaggy mentioned, hurricane Floyd. Not saying we would see that type of flooding but I always found it interesting how the trough set up and we had the very heavy rain well before the storm even got here; there's a radar loop on YouTube of hurricane floyd and it always amazes me watching it and seeing the trough interaction and axis of very heavy rains. Joaquin right now looks like something you'd expect to see at dmax, tonight will be interesting especially if shear relaxes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 18z GFS just trended SW with the path. Oh boy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 GFS drops 10+ inches across most of central NC in about a 24 hour time frame. Has a jackpot of 20 inches for the 7 day total centered around Greensboro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sarcean Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 I can only imagine what 20 inches would actually do to Greensboro... thankfully it will likely never happen. Still even 10 inches would be a TON after its rained for 7 straight days here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 GFS drops 10+ inches across most of central NC in about a 24 hour time frame. Has a jackpot of 20 inches for the 7 day total centered around Greensboro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 18z GFS just trended SW with the path. Oh boy. #%%%#%#%@$^#$^$@#^^ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 Sorry you beat me to it XD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 Hurricane Center looks well east, though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted September 29, 2015 Author Share Posted September 29, 2015 18z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chase2211 Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 Hurricane Center looks well east, though 205452W5_NL_sm.gif would a track farther east cause the heavy band of rain to set up farther east?Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 would a track farther east cause the heavy band of rain to set up farther east? Sent from my iPhone Don't know but the cone is sure out of NC now ... no more rain needed up there this week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chase2211 Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 Don't know but the cone is sure out of NC now ... no more rain needed up there this week I'm in northern wake and don't want that 20 inch bullseye to slide eastSent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AJF0602 Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 I would def take that cone with a grain of salt right now, there is so much model spread they probably didn't want to look ridiculous having a cone from nc to Bermuda lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 I'm in northern wake and don't want that 20 inch bullseye to slide east Sent from my iPhone good luck with whatever comes your way - was seeing today that NC, especially in the Piedmont and towards the mountains is all pretty wet and with the front coming through, tropical moisture on top of it would be pretty .... well .... not good (?) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 I'm in northern wake and don't want that 20 inch bullseye to slide east Sent from my iPhone It won't. That's just foolishness, those totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCHurricane Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 It won't. That's just foolishness, those totals. Panovich is usually pretty hesistant on mentioning huge totals showing up in models run, but he actually mentioned on his latest FB vid about the chance of 15-20" totals from the Triad to the Triangle being "not out of the realm of possibility". I was surprised that he mentioned it on social media. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted September 29, 2015 Author Share Posted September 29, 2015 UKMET Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 I think it would be better to mention the possibility of those totals and for people to be aware of it than to be caught off guard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCHurricane Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 I think it would be better to mention the possibility of those totals and for people to be aware of it than to be caught off guard. Oh I agree, but coming from someone (Panovich) who normally scolds those that post clown maps on social media showing ridculous amounts of snowfall during winter storms, the fact that he mentioned it is telling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCHurricane Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 I'll just leave this here. Thanks Allan! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AJF0602 Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 What a big shift west, tonight's model runs should be fun lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Meh yesterday the HWRF had Joaquin up near Hudson Bay Sunday morning now it has it destroying eastern NC Sat, next run maybe San Diego, CA will be under the gun..... Still the Ukie and a few others hint at the possibility and dammit if I gotta deal with a all that rain at least let me get some wind... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Panovich is usually pretty hesistant on mentioning huge totals showing up in models run, but he actually mentioned on his latest FB vid about the chance of 15-20" totals from the Triad to the Triangle being "not out of the realm of possibility". I was surprised that he mentioned it on social media. Yeah I don't disagree that it's possible. It's just when models show extreme situations, I just remember things like blocking is usually weaker than forecast, tropical systems usually wind up farther east than forecast, and ULLs usuly don't dig as far south and are weaker than forecast. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Yeah I don't disagree that it's possible. It's just when models show extreme situations, I just remember things like blocking is usually weaker than forecast, tropical systems usually wind up farther east than forecast, and ULLs usuly don't dig as far south and are weaker than forecast. We'll see. Agree for the most part, but the Snowaween snow last year, was modeled quite well! Blind squirrel ??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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