Solak Posted October 1, 2015 Author Share Posted October 1, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 I've decided to take a day off of watching and let it shake out some. I'm in raleigh and I-40 is largely shut down west of highway 1 so be warned if your in raleigh area. He is a straight beast but until he starts moving north it's a toss up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Eskimo Joe from the Mid Atlantic forum posted this: "Based off the GOES rapid scan, it looks like the turn to the northwest is starting." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Good graphic from the boys at KRDU Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 And structurally he continues to improve the eye looks smallish for sure so he may wind up to Cat 5 today...then I suspect he would ERC and pop a bigger eye and level out at a high end Cat 3 low end Cat 4 for a day or so with a nice stadium eye.... edit: I know its generally a crappy model but the HWRF has its current strength and motioned captured better than any other model at this time Eye is actually 32nm wide it's just not cleared out for the most part yet. When it does it'll be quite large! Also keep an eye on RGEM for track as well. It's done a good job with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Eskimo Joe from the Mid Atlantic forum posted this: "Based off the GOES rapid scan, it looks like the turn to the northwest is starting." As a reference, the 0z Euro has it SW until roughly 8pm tonight, it's as far south as 22.5, then it's nearly stationary for 12 hours and then slowly trickles north for another 18 hours and then it starts moving NE late Friday night. It's between 22.5N-24N at 75W for 48 hours. In fact, from the 3 hour panels I have on the Euro it never moves NW, give or take a wobble in between the 3 hour increments and it never gets west of 75W. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 As a reference, the 0z Euro has it SW until roughly 8pm tonight, it's as far south as 22.5, then it's nearly stationary for 12 hours and then slowly trickles north for another 18 hours and then it starts moving NE late Friday night. It's between 22.5N-24N at 75W for 48 hours. In fact, from the 3 hour panels I have on the Euro it never moves NW, give or take a wobble in between the 3 hour increments and it never gets west of 75W. I was just saying in the Mid Atl forum how the Euro has the storm from where it is now tmoving SW slowly and then basically back to this spot over the next 42 hrs....so according to Euro this thing should still be roughly where it is right now by Sat morning..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 I was just saying in the Mid Atl forum how the Euro has the storm from where it is now tmoving SW slowly and then basically back to this spot over the next 42 hrs....so according to Euro this thing should still be roughly where it is right now by Sat morning..... Roughly, yes. It has it moving from 22.5W/75N to 24W/75N from now until roughly midnight tomorrow night and then it starts trucking NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 I've decided to take a day off of watching and let it shake out some. I'm in raleigh and I-40 is largely shut down west of highway 1 so be warned if your in raleigh area. He is a straight beast but until he starts moving north it's a toss up Off topic, but why is I40 shut down Shaggy? Certainly not tied to weather? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 if it was gonna come make landfall it would only be a cat 1 or 2. im saying painful for the GFS failing all the time. Its time we start actually funding the NCEP properly and stop making excuses. Have some common sense. Hurricane Floyd made landfall in NC as a Category 2 hurricane... And this one appears that it has the potential to be a mega-rain producer as Floyd was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Comparing the GFS to the Euro at midnight tomorrow night, the GFS has Joaquin 140-150 miles north of Euro and it still misses wide right. This is just for reference to see who is doing better, GFS is at 75W/26N and Euro is at 75W/24N. The 6z HWRF is roughly inline with the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sctvman Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Rain issues here. From channel 4 in Charleston. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneEric Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Hey guys, new to this forum so this will be my first post. On the matter of Joaquin, I know we like to think ridges and troughs will have something to do with its movement but aren't majors like this typically able to create/change their environment and, in a sense, have a "mind of its own"? Also, random thought, but it feels extremely weird to live in SFla and not have any concern over a major currently battering the Bahamas in a general WSW track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 NAM is going out to sea. book it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steven_1974 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Off topic, but why is I40 shut down Shaggy? Certainly not tied to weather? I checked the traffic cameras and it's only a small section that is backed up due to an accident or something. It's not shut down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLO Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Rain issues here. From channel 4 in Charleston. image.jpeg I assume that isn't counting the rain we are supposed to get Saturday in SC from the ULL? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sctvman Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Probably. And it only shows 1-3" for Charlotte. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 At 42 NAM has little interaction with ULL as evidenced in the 6z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted October 1, 2015 Author Share Posted October 1, 2015 I checked the traffic cameras and it's only a small section that is backed up due to an accident or something. It's not shut down. It's cleared up now, but for a while there there were 4 accidents between 540 and Hwy 1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 At 42 NAM has little interaction with ULL as evidenced in the 6z run. At 48 it looks pretty close to the 00z Euro last night...might be a little further northwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 At 42 NAM has little interaction with ULL as evidenced in the 6z run. It wasn't even close to getting captured, like you said it ain't happening. I would think it needs to get NW of 75W/26N by tomorrow night or there abouts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Probably. And it only shows 1-3" for Charlotte. What do the surface temps looks like.....er nevermind, a few months early! Checking in early on our interesting weather situation. Count me in as doubtful Joaquin will hit NC. That's just a weird track that's just not probable in my mind. Charlotte just rarely gets such extreme weather. I doubt CLT gets very much rain either, just hard to believe. Though the 1-3 inches is believable hard to think we'll get much more than that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Eye moving NW now..... That isn't no wobble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Regan Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Brad P's new vid says hi rain totals his graphic shows CLT in 7-10 range SnowNiner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goldman75 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Assuming the move nw continues instead of stalling then would most likely move the euro westward? Not saying a landfall but maybe closer to the coast than expect ATM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 It's cleared up now, but for a while there there were 4 accidents between 540 and Hwy 1. Yeah all accident related. I 40 wasn't moving and everyone was jumping onto side roads and they were backing up too. Fully expect a shift east on models and forecast track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GreensboroWx Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Upper low/trough DOES pick up Joaquin at the end of the run. I'm not sold on any solution from any model right now. I WILL guarantee there is going to be flooding rains for parts of NC/SC/VA, perhaps historic amounts of rain. The last thing we need would be for heavy winds to come ashore.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 All we have to do today is watch the storm motion. The sooner it starts heading NW the higher chance of a landfall. GFS and EURO have that thing hanging out in the Bahams for atleast a day. But latest frames show the eye slowly pushing NW IF this continues and if the storm manages to push just south of San Salvador today then I bet on a landfall. NHC at 11AM says the center is supposed to be literally 10 miles south of where it is right now at 8Pm tonight... Unless this storm hits a brick wall that's going to be very wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted October 1, 2015 Author Share Posted October 1, 2015 I think one telling factor will be.... the current forecast keeps Juaquin East of 75°. Should it venture to 'the other side', that would have implications down the road a few days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDSINIT 01/1500Z 23.0N 73.9W 110 KT 125 MPH 12H 02/0000Z 22.9N 74.2W 115 KT 130 MPH 24H 02/1200Z 23.7N 74.6W 120 KT 140 MPH 36H 03/0000Z 25.2N 74.4W 120 KT 140 MPH 48H 03/1200Z 27.5N 73.7W 110 KT 125 MPH 72H 04/1200Z 32.0N 73.0W 95 KT 110 MPH 96H 05/1200Z 36.0N 73.5W 75 KT 85 MPH120H 06/1200Z 40.0N 72.5W 55 KT 65 MPH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted October 1, 2015 Author Share Posted October 1, 2015 Ummmm...... 935mb? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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