DopplerWx Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 the key here is the gfs ensembles have 2 distinct groups, and the op just goes right down the middle. so all options are def on the table, although i think the euro is def leading the pack. one thing is for sure, this is great practice for winter wth the 72hr cliff jumping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RubiksDestroyer Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 First pass looks very impressive... below 945 mb pressure, and surface winds near/just over 130 knots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Not sure Joaquin does have a decent shot at Cat4 or 5 unless it starts moving soon. He is churning up cold-"er" water just parked off the Bahamas. Either way, having a Cat 3 sitting on your back deck for 48-72 hours isn't anything to be excited about. I feel for those folks across the islands this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Not sure Joaquin does have a decent shot at Cat4 or 5 unless it starts moving soon. He is churning up cold-"er" water just parked off the Bahamas. Either way, having a Cat 3 sitting on your back deck for 48-72 hours isn't anything to be excited about. I feel for those folks across the islands this morning. They just had 130 knt surface wind on the first pass that's 150 mph or high end Cat 4....the water there has deep heat so upwelling wont be to much of a issue. He is about to clear a nice 20 mile wide eye as well, and I suspect we see him dump some more mb's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AJF0602 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 The vortex message showed 117 kts, storm continues to impress me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Looks like the forecasters are taking a middle of the road approach. It seems that is how these things usually work out, whether it be hurricane tracks or winter storm tracks. Some models still taking it to NC, while others take it out to sea. Probably will end up just off the coast of NC, and weaken to a cat 1 hurricane. It will impact the beaches and OBX, but probably have minimal impact here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 So not sure what this means if anything but it seems the models are really slow with this system ....now the sat loops look to me as if it has a more westward componet to it and its already pretty darn close to the 24 hr plot on the 06Z GFS here is the current Vis with the center and a red line drawn to match where the 06Z GFS 24hr plot is, just watching the loops it appears to me that the storm will be there in much much less time than that, not sure it means anything but the models that where faster and stronger tend to be the ones that go west into NC... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CanadianGuy Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Sent from my XT1563 There's still strong support for an east coast landfall. We aren't off the hook at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RubiksDestroyer Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 So not sure what this means if anything but it seems the models are really slow with this system ....now the sat loops look to me as if it has a more westward componet to it and its already pretty darn close to the 24 hr plot on the 06Z GFS gfs_mslp_wind_11L_5.png here is the current Vis with the center and a red line drawn to match where the 06Z GFS 24hr plot is, just watching the loops it appears to me that the storm will be there in much much less time than that, not sure it means anything but the models that where faster and stronger tend to be the ones that go west into NC... vis0-lalo.gif 100% agree. How long it takes for Joaquin to make a turn to the north and how far south Joaquin goes will play a large role in where (if at all) it makes landfall. From what I can tell, a faster turn and/or more northward path is more likely to lean towards a westward solution into the NC coast, whereas a slower meandering in the Bahamas like the Euro has been showing will probably lead to an OTS scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AJF0602 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Looking at the water vapor loop the trough is incoming, I wonder if joaquin will feel the effects later today. Also as well over the Atlantic the drier air moving from NE to SW is that the ridge building in? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Hard to imagine Joaquin just staying harmlessly OTS with such a ridge building in. The trough back west is impressive in the guidance. Amazingly, it has not trended weaker and farther north with the close-off/negative tilt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Looks like models continue the east trend at 12z #painful Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Looks like models continue the east trend at 12z #painful Really? You want a major hurricane to make landfall? No thanks, I can due without loss of life and property damage. I think the Euro has the right idea and could not be happier if it verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Hard to imagine Joaquin just staying harmlessly OTS with such a ridge building in. The trough back west is impressive in the guidance. Amazingly, it has not trended weaker and farther north with the close-off/negative tilt. Sounds like what has been said before with winter storms - hard to imagine it not taking this path towards us with such and such in place. But it seems things keep defying what we think should happen with the players that are on the field. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Really? You want a major hurricane to make landfall? No thanks, I can due without loss of life and property damage. I think the Euro has the right idea and could not be happier if it verifies. if it was gonna come make landfall it would only be a cat 1 or 2. im saying painful for the GFS failing all the time. Its time we start actually funding the NCEP properly and stop making excuses. Have some common sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CanadianGuy Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 12z isn't even out yet. Chill Sent from my XT1563 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Hard to imagine Joaquin just staying harmlessly OTS with such a ridge building in. The trough back west is impressive in the guidance. Amazingly, it has not trended weaker and farther north with the close-off/negative tilt. Sounds like what has been said before with winter storms - hard to imagine it not taking this path towards us with such and such in place. But it seems things keep defying what we think should happen with the players that are on the field. Agree with both of you. It's a reason we haven't had a hurricane plow into the Carolina's, it's darn difficult but this setup could have delivered a cane. Looks like we essentially have one model that you can take seriously inside day 5. I guess we can use the GFS to tell us what not to expect... I feel sorry for the SC folks, if they get 15-20" of rain it's going to be really bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 The trough is becoming more negative each frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted October 1, 2015 Author Share Posted October 1, 2015 US National Weather Service Raleigh NC added a new photo. 1 hr · Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hugo Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Agree with both of you. It's a reason we haven't had a hurricane plow into the Carolina's, it's darn difficult but this setup could have delivered a cane. Looks like we essentially have one model that you can take seriously inside day 5. I guess we can use the GFS to tell us what not to expect... I feel sorry for the SC folks, if they get 15-20" of rain it's going to be really bad. It was hard for the euro to lose when it's going to get credit for any non-NC landfall solution. Wasn't the euro showing CONUS landfall before yesterday anyway? Also, megalol at verifying a storm before it even starts to move. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 US National Weather Service Raleigh NC added a new photo. 1 hr · "We don't know. " At least they are honest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 It was hard for the euro to lose when it's going to get credit for any non-NC landfall solution. Wasn't the euro showing CONUS landfall before yesterday anyway? Also, megalol at verifying a storm before it even starts to move. +1. esp. with a deepening storm that is nearly stationary. models will keep shifting for the next 24-36hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 All the people screaming ITS OVER need to knock it off, everything depends on the through interaction and EVERY model including the precious Euro are having difficulties with this. And a good chunk of models show a costal landfall somewhere, including Euro and GFS ensembles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 recon finding 938.5mb and dropping... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AJF0602 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Kudos to nws raleigh for being blunt and direct about it. I would hate to be the nhc right now because this is a very difficult situation that impacts many. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MichaelJ Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 While things can always change, I would bet on the OTS option which the EURO has remained steadfast in for many runs in a row. The rain from the ULL will be enough for us to worry about now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Looks like there is a plane sampling the gulf right now. 12z should be more telling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 All the people screaming ITS OVER need to knock it off, everything depends on the through interaction and EVERY model including the precious Euro are having difficulties with this. And a good chunk of models show a costal landfall somewhere, including Euro and GFS ensembles Personally I'm not stating it's over...but I look at it as such an extreme solution that it's unlikely to happen. Just playing the odds personally...again though this is a very serious situation and no one should forget about the ULL or Joaquin. There are so many factors at play to lead to the "perfect storm" so you take one factor out it stops the catastrophic from happening. That's what I'm hoping most for so perhaps I'm biased. Sorry to say I have no excitement over a ULL and Hurricane joining forces to put NC/SC underwater. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 looks like the lowest pressure from recon was right at 938mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 looks like the lowest pressure from recon was right at 938mb. And structurally he continues to improve the eye looks smallish for sure so he may wind up to Cat 5 today...then I suspect he would ERC and pop a bigger eye and level out at a high end Cat 3 low end Cat 4 for a day or so with a nice stadium eye.... edit: I know its generally a crappy model but the HWRF has its current strength and motioned captured better than any other model at this time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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