downeastnc Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 06Z GFS up and running initialized the storm at 989mb.....that off by 41mb's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 06Z GFS going to be OTS or at the very least similar to last run...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 06Z GFS going to be OTS or at the very least similar to last run...... It is. It doesn't even touch Cape Cod, and doesn't make landfall until it gets to the Canadian Maritimes... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 It is. It doesn't even touch Cape Cod, and doesn't make landfall until it gets to the Canadian Maritimes... yeah now lets see the ens since the 00Z GFS ens mean was still over NC coast....in fact only a handful of the 00Z ens were right of the 00Z op track if the same happens here its gonna be odd to say the least. Also the GFDL which runs off the GFS still had the NC hit at 00Z so if it holds serve I think it has to do with the strength and timing.....all the models that hit the Carolinas are stronger and faster with the storm the ones that miss are weaker and slower..we should know this afternoon though if the storm stalls and then starts NE again the Euro wins Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 How can an ull drop that much rain over such a large area. Just amazing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 How can an ull drop that much rain over such a large area. Just amazing. The 06z GFS is a bit more tame with 10-13 or so around the Midlands. Less in your area too I think I remember around 6? I forget and heading to bed currently. Lets just hope the Euro is overdone with it's ridiculous amounts. Edit: I have to worry about those precip amounts since you know, it's whipping the GFS with Joaquin track currently. But the EPS mean was only 8 inches here opposed to close to 20 on the OP. Which is in line with the GEFS past few runs around 7.5-8. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Hard to go against the EURO. Says a lot about that model, considering it was just about the only one OTS a day or 2 ago... As far as the rain for central NC that was separate of Joaquin, looks like the main axis is shifting south and west. We may "only" get 3-4 inches. I'd rather have than than 8+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Well that devolved quickly. So the GFS, and every other model, is now on par with the old stick the finger in the air method while the euro makes people like Greg Fishel look smart. Wonderful news to wake up to. And my weekend gets thoroughly washed out too! I will definitely put more emphasis on model initializaton. As others have stated, no way that 40mb doesnt have an impact in the forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Its frustrating since a lot of us stand to be directly impacted by a high end event if the Carolina landfall of a strong hurricane pans out, the not knowing what it is going to do is the worst. Both model camps make sense its all about strength and timing......the Euro doesn't move it much in the next 48 hrs with it dropping south then moving almost back the way it came, the models that hit NC for the most part keep it moving in a W to NW motion and bring it north sooner so we should know by Friday morning which of these are the most accurate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DJnVa Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 NHC track is terrible, there is literally no model support for that particular track at all..... really its either OTS or the Carolinas so the track they have splitting the difference is just stupid as according to the models its the least likely path for it to take..... in cases like this they should be able to just go 3 day and then use disco's to highlight their thinking versus putting dots on a map where the storm is likely to not go just because they are blending the guidance. That's the map they're using on one of the stations here in Hampton Roads and he teased trends showing "eastward movement". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CanadianGuy Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 It's too early to call an OTS event. Sent from my XT1563 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 The 06z GFS is a bit more tame with 10-13 or so around the Midlands. Less in your area too I think I remember around 6? I forget and heading to bed currently. Lets just hope the Euro is overdone with it's ridiculous amounts. Edit: I have to worry about those precip amounts since you know, it's whipping the GFS with Joaquin track currently. But the EPS mean was only 8 inches here opposed to close to 20 on the OP. Which is in line with the GEFS past few runs around 7.5-8. Thanks Shawn but remember the op was mostly by itself first and the members flipped later. Big big win for the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AJF0602 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 The water vapor loop posted on the main forum is very telling, no matter what solution I think we will have our answer tonight. You can clearly see the UL developing and trough going negative tilt now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 It's too early to call an OTS event. Sent from my XT1563 Not when the euro has been showing the same output and other models leaning towards it. Euro embarrassed the Americans and Canadians . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted October 1, 2015 Author Share Posted October 1, 2015 EricSorensen Verified account @ERICSORENSEN 3m3 minutes ago Moline, IL Whoa! 165 mph wind detected by Hurricane Hunters just now. #Joaquin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 EricSorensen Verified account @ERICSORENSEN 3m3 minutes ago Moline, IL Whoa! 165 mph wind detected by Hurricane Hunters just now. #Joaquin Would not want to be in the bahamas this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CanadianGuy Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Not when the euro has been showing the same output and other models leaning towards it. Euro embarrassed the Americans and Canadians . The Euro isn't a God send. It was completely out of whack yesterday, curving it eastward just before Bermuda. GFS still has Joaquin riding up the coast, several hundred miles off shore. Completely different solutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Would not want to be in the bahamas this morning. What's going to be left of those islands...Cat 5 cane just camped out for 48 hours. #EuroFTW Get ready for the gloating from DT and Fishel, can't bet against the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 The Euro isn't a God send. It was completely out of whack yesterday, curving it eastward just before Bermuda. GFS still has Joaquin riding up the coast, several hundred miles off shore. Completely different solutions. It's over man. Even ensembles are trending to a out to sea solution. You will see when 12z comes out, that the solution will hold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CanadianGuy Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 It's over man. Even ensembles are trending to a out to sea solution. You will see when 12z comes out, that the solution will hold. Way too early to call that given just 12 hours ago it was looking like a big hit for NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncforecaster89 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 FWIW, 6z HWRF is a landfall coming in just S of Cape Lookout at 87 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 It's over man. Even ensembles are trending to a out to sea solution. You will see when 12z comes out, that the solution will hold. Agreed, It's over for conus landfall. Still heck of a rain event for SC, that will be bad and it will be gusty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted October 1, 2015 Author Share Posted October 1, 2015 A lot of new data was ingested into the models overnight, most notably the multiple balloon launches from last evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncforecaster89 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Of course, there's no denying the trends toward keeping Joaquin offshore of the U.S. East Coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Agreed, It's over for conus landfall. Still heck of a rain event for SC, that will be bad and it will be gusty. Just SC? Lol what am I going to do with the 5-10 inches of rain I get here on top of the 8 inches that fell in the past week? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 It looks like the upper low is almost too strong at this point and is causing joaquin to head nne/instead of curving around it. Once it get's high enough in lattitude then it just floats north until it finds a weakness in the ridge. Will be interesting to see if the other models shift this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 It's over man. Even ensembles are trending to a out to sea solution. You will see when 12z comes out, that the solution will hold. although trends the last 2 runs now are to the right there is still modeling showing landfall so it's too early to be saying those kinds of definitive statements so soon. Btw folks, since it's becoming clear that the heavy rainfall over the southeast will be largely associated with the upper low and not directly or entirely dependent on joaquin making landfall, to avoid confusion i encourage the talk of the excessive rains to the other thread and leave this thread exclusive to the track and/or direct impacts of the cane.. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Sub 940mb pressure reading showing up on recon near the center. They also found 134mph surface winds and that reading was not denoted as suspect. This thing is a beast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted October 1, 2015 Author Share Posted October 1, 2015 At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Joaquin was located near latitude 23.2 North, longitude 73.7 West. Joaquin is moving toward the west-southwest near 5 mph (7 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue today. A turn toward the west- northwest is forecast tonight, followed by a turn toward the north and an increase in forward speed on Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Joaquin will move near or over portions of the central Bahamas today and tonight and pass near or over portions of the northwestern Bahamas on Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher gusts. Joaquin is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some strengthening is forecast in the next day or so, with some fluctuations in intensity possible on Friday. Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km). The minimum central pressure just extrapolated by an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 942 mb (27.82 inches). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Yeah it has a real chance at making a run at Cat 5 and I think I saw a peak surface wind speed of 130knts reported already Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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