Shawn Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Fairfield county SC (next to CAE) is showing 26 inches on the 00z Euro... and it might even be more on future frames. Man, oh man. Even the upstate GSP area gets rocked! We would probably need assistance if these amounts verify even half in some areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Fairfield county SC (next to CAE) is showing 26 inches on the 00z Euro... and it might even be more on future frames. Man, oh man. Even the upstate GSP area gets rocked! We would probably need assistance if these amounts verify even half in some areas. hard to believe 26" from an ULL. I guess if Joaquin interacted with it, then we'd be talking about 50" ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 I can't access euro maps at the moment. What is it giving for WNC in terms of precip? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 hard to believe 26" from an ULL. I guess if Joaquin interacted with it, then we'd be talking about 50" ? Various modeling has been showing this.. especially the Euro. Last frame checked it was at 28 inches. I don't think we want this at all. What do you guys think though? This really can't happen could it with Joaquin heading OTS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxduncan Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Well Euro is OTS but here are the totals through hour 120 from the ULL: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 I can't access euro maps at the moment. What is it giving for WNC in terms of precip? Here, I think this is one of those times that it's warranted to post this. A lot of people are assuming since no Joaquin landfall, it's gonna be a non-event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Various modeling has been showing this.. especially the Euro. Last frame checked it was at 28 inches. I don't think we want this at all. What do you guys think though? This really can't happen could it with Joaquin heading OTS? Its overdone no matter what IMO.....10-15" with isolated pockets pushing more sure but widespread 20+ is hard to do even with a hurricane but if it stalls who knows.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Here, I think this is one of those times that it's warranted to post this. A lot of people are assuming since no Joaquin landfall, it's gonna be a non-event. Yikes that's a lot of water for a lot of people Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormsfury Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Charleston in the bullseye of the 20"+ totals. Heck, this area floods during high tide. These outputs are October monthly rainfall records being shattered in just mere days. All time monthly record in KCHS is 27.73" June 1973. Otherwise, I could take a good long piss downtown and it would flood. If that much is realized downtown, Charleston city would pretty much be closed down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Actually the Euro run was different and I think it might have just blinked....it does turn north and maybe even NW ( out by Bermuda) but it is the first time its acknowledged the capture I think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Yikes that's a lot of water for a lot of people Up in the Mountains of NC it's even worse although the amounts are lower. It's still extreme for that area. And this isn't like a one time model run. Various modeling just slams the Mountains/SC areas. With the GEFS split between East and West. The Euro holding it's own along with the majority of it's ensembles along with the UKMET shift tonight..... it may become apparent by 12z that the Euro is likely to verify at this point... 10-15 inches as downeastnc said made more sense.. would still require assistance from other locations to help some communities out. Again, I am glad I do not live in downtown Columbia.. and even if the #s were correct in CHS around 9-12 inches... they will still be screwed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormsfury Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Here, I think this is one of those times that it's warranted to post this. A lot of people are assuming since no Joaquin landfall, it's gonna be a non-event. Looks more like a fantasy snow clown map versus a year's worth of rain in a few days. This is stuff normally reserved for tropical Pacific islands during monsoon season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Up in the Mountains of NC it's even worse although the amounts are lower. It's still extreme for that area. And this isn't like a one time model run. Various modeling just slams the Mountains/SC areas. With the GEFS split between East and West. The Euro holding it's own along with the majority of it's ensembles along with the UKMET shift tonight..... it may become apparent by 12z that the Euro is likely to verify at this point... 10-15 inches as downeastnc said made more sense.. would still require assistance from other locations to help some communities out. Very true. Not a good situation at all for Midlands of SC, upstate of SC and WNC. Many locations in WNC received 2+ inches of rain last evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormsfury Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Its overdone no matter what IMO.....10-15" with isolated pockets pushing more sure but widespread 20+ is hard to do even with a hurricane but if it stalls who knows.... Yeah, pretty much going to be a once in a lifetime event if this pans out. FWIW, the storms last week that produced the Johns Island tornado, when that supercell made it here, it dumped .50" of rain here...in 4 minutes!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxduncan Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Very true. Not a good situation at all for Midlands of SC, upstate of SC and WNC. Many locations in WNC received 2+ inches of rain last evening. Yeah since last Thursday here in Valdese just east of you in Burke County we have got a little over 6.53inches and if the Euro is correct add another 9-10 inches on top of that in a very short time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Yeah, pretty much going to be a once in a lifetime event if this pans out. FWIW, the storms last week that produced the Johns Island tornado, when that supercell made it here, it dumped .50" of rain here...in 4 minutes!!!! I'm not sure what is causing the lower precipitation amounts in the CHS area. Any idea? Edit: Saw a jet streak image posted elsewhere that lays out very well where the core of the huge numbers are shown. Around 40-50kts... along with the ULL track maybe cause it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 These outputs are October monthly rainfall records being shattered in just mere days. All time monthly record in KCHS is 27.73" June 1973. Otherwise, I could take a good long piss downtown and it would flood. If that much is realized downtown, Charleston city would pretty much be closed down. in all seriousness, i think it's safe to say that is the most rainfall i have ever seen a model put out not associated directly with a tropical system. The scary part is i think its plausable. Virtually every model is showing this axis of extreme rainfall that more or less parks over the same area. Considering the high pw values, and i'm not sure what they are on the euro, but the gfs/canadian is showing a tongue of 2 to 2.25 and canadian might be pushing 2.5 for a time, any convection that is anchored to that axis for any extended period is really going to put the hammer down. What's scary is the duration..it just doesn't stop on the euro. I'd hate to think real strong convection staying in the same place that long. I'm not sure what's more insane the totals or the gradient. Euro dumps less than 2 inches here while 50 miles way they get 2 feet. unreal. btw, hpc is really bullish as well. Will be interesting to read their discussion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 MHX forecast for MBY Friday Showers. The rain could be heavy at times. High near 65. North wind around 14 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New precipitation amounts between 1 and 2 inches possible. Friday Night Showers. The rain could be heavy at times. Low around 58. East wind 8 to 11 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New precipitation amounts between 1 and 2 inches possible. Saturday Tropical storm conditions possible. Showers likely. The rain could be heavy at times. Cloudy, with a high near 74. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New precipitation amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible. Saturday Night Tropical storm conditions possible. Showers likely, mainly after 2am. Cloudy, with a low around 61. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Sunday Tropical storm conditions possible. Showers likely, mainly before 2pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 74. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Sunday Night Tropical storm conditions possible. A chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 60. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AJF0602 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 The outflow on this storm is beautiful lol yet scary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Well, this NAM run coming in has a chance to be pretty interesting. Lets see where she goes... seems it may be captured further South this time around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxduncan Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 WPC New Rainfall Total Forecast Map Also New Excessive Rainfall Forecast Maps: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 NHC takes a landfall thru 5 days off the table on the 5am update.....much slower as well with the storm. Of course the GFS will go back west now....hate to be in their shoes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxduncan Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 New Full Advisory(5:00am) From NHC On Hurricane JOAQUIN: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 447 AM EDT THU OCT 01 2015 from the WPC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxduncan Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 447 AM EDT THU OCT 01 2015 from the WPC Would that include me in Valdese(Burke County NC)? Looks like I'm in the yellow(WPC Map) or on the edge hard for me to tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Would that include me in Valdese(Burke County NC)? Looks like I'm in the yellow(WPC Map) or on the edge hard for me to tell. From some earlier model maps, I don't see why not. A lot of people in play for this potential historic rain event. They mention Western NC by name. Edit: NAM run is delayed/not coming out once again. Stuck at hour 51. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 From some earlier model maps, I don't see why not. A lot of people in play for this potential historic rain event. They mention Western NC by name. Edit: NAM run is delayed/not coming out once again. Stuck at hour 51. K thought it was me I must have refreshed Tropical Tidbits 50 times in the last 15 mins Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 K thought it was me I must have refreshed Tropical Tidbits 50 times in the last 15 mins Yep. 15-30 minutes late. No model diagnostics message about it yet. Did notice this run was going to look different than the 00z run most likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Yep. 15-30 minutes late. No model diagnostics message about it yet. Did notice this run was going to look different than the 00z run most likely. It was slower but the 51 hr location is southeast just a tiny bit from the 00Z run so I am not sure how much that effects it down the road Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 NHC track is terrible, there is literally no model support for that particular track at all..... really its either OTS or the Carolinas so the track they have splitting the difference is just stupid as according to the models its the least likely path for it to take..... in cases like this they should be able to just go 3 day and then use disco's to highlight their thinking versus putting dots on a map where the storm is likely to not go just because they are blending the guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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