ILMRoss Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Hwrf has a westward component in its motion at hour 69. Looks to be essentially holding serve. Edit: actually might be shifting south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 CMC is a touch east instead of ILM headed WNW its Swansboro headed WNW, nasty hit for NC for sure HWRF looks similar maybe a bit NE of last landfall most likely really its worse case scenario for MBY has 100knts right before landfall as well..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Glancing over it, seems HWRF may be slightly North on it's land fall vs previous run. The Canadian looks to hit around S. VA/NC border area from 500mb maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Glancing over it, seems HWRF may be slightly North on it's land fall vs previous run. The Canadian looks to hit around S. VA/NC border area from 500mb maps. here are the maps for the CMC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Nice maps. South of the VA/NC border I see. Looking over the 00z GEFS mean.. seems to be in line with what this is showing give or take a bit location wise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AJF0602 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Crazy 3 days away and still no clue as to what will happen;the cmc and hwrf are really worse case scenarios for MBY as well downeast. What is exactly supposed to weaken the ridge and build a weakness is it ex ida? Because looking at satellite that system seems to be a non factor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxduncan Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 CMC is a touch east instead of ILM headed WNW its Swansboro headed WNW, nasty hit for NC for sure HWRF looks similar maybe a bit NE of last landfall most likely really its worse case scenario for MBY has 100knts right before landfall as well..... Do you have the HWRF maps I could look at? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 HWRF ends up coming in within a few miles of the 18Z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Also, the GEFS looks to be around 998MB at landfall in the same general area as the Canadian's spot. Odd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncforecaster89 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 00z HWRF: Edit: As already mentioned, this projected landfall is only about 12 nm NE of the 18z run. It's also 9 hours later as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AJF0602 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Ouch insane... good news is if that somehow miraculously is the one to win out I'll be able to take pictures within the eye without having to go anywhere. :/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 The 00z GGEM brings it ashore near Morehead City (actually, probably Swansboro, as Shaggy said), so there's that. I'm not sure if it's wise to pay that model any attention when it comes to tropical weather, however. At the same time, I'm not sure if the Euro and GFS are usually considered go-to tropical models, either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 The 00z GGEM brings it ashore near Morehead City, so there's that. I'm not sure if it's wise to pay that model any attention when it comes to tropical weather, however. At the same time, I don't think the Euro and GFS are usually considered go-to tropical models, either. so what model is the go-to model for tropical storms ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Ironically this GFDL run was about as bad a hit for NC as any previous GFDL run it has it as a 127knt cane and does a hit south of Hatteras moving WNW similar to the CMC but a touch further north ...it initialized at 949mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 200 AM EDT THU OCT 01 2015...JOAQUIN HEADING FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS WITH 120 MPH WINDS...SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION----------------------------------------------LOCATION...23.5N 73.4WABOUT 35 MI...55 KM NE OF SAMANA CAYS BAHAMASABOUT 80 MI...125 KM ESE OF SAN SALVADOR BAHAMASMAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/HPRESENT MOVEMENT...SW OR 220 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/HMINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...948 MB...27.99 INCHES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 talk about a tough nut to crack with so many possible solutions and complicated interactions. canadian is just absurd with the rainfall totals over south carolina. One common theme on all the models is still the heavy rainfall centered over sc, regardless of the ultimate track of this hurricane. buckeye and stormfury better go buy a boat or raft or something. btw, this is just through hour 78..more to come afterwards, especially north carolina. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 When do the gfs ensembles come out? Need to brush up on all these intricate model timetables in time for winter. With something so delicate as interaction with the trough, I'd assume the ensembles will be a bit all over the board. The ensemble mean seems to bring the storm ashore near Morehead City, NC, though I haven't seen the individual members. The storm curves west towards Wilson, NC in the ensuing couple frames. It also paints one hell of a rainstorm with basically the entirety of SC/NC/VA in 6"+ of rain. I've got to leave for WV tomorrow evening for a funeral on Friday and I'm driving back to NC on Saturday, so that might be interesting... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncforecaster89 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 so what model is the go-to model for tropical storms ? Statistically, the ECMWF, GFS, and the UKMET...in that order. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AJF0602 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 With that map posted above what would cause the gfs to be so east of the ensembles? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 The ensemble mean seems to bring the storm ashore near Morehead City, NC, though I haven't seen the individual members. The storm curves west towards Wilson, NC in the ensuing couple frames. It also paints one hell of a rainstorm with basically the entirety of SC/NC/VA in 6"+ of rain. Yeah the 00Z GFS OP was weak and slow, the hi res cane models etc are all stronger and faster so we will see how it actually plays out.....but the GFS ens mean is in line with the previous OP runs so I am more inclined to throw out the 00Z OP GFS now that I have seen the ens and the CMC/HWRF and GFDL all pretty much stayed the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AJF0602 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Oh okay that makes sense, trying to stay up for the euro lol that would be pretty crazy if it went west and did a us landfall lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 talk about a tough nut to crack with so many possible solutions and complicated interactions. canadian is just absurd with the rainfall totals over south carolina. One common theme on all the models is still the heavy rainfall centered over sc, regardless of the ultimate track of this hurricane. buckeye and stormfury better go buy a boat or raft or something. btw, this is just through hour 78..more to come afterwards, especially north carolina. The area of Downtown Columbia/Five Points floods out extremely easily. It's going to be absolutely ridiculous how bad it's going to be out there in the coming days. I live out not far from Buckeye and I still have water standing in places from the first big round mainly. Thankfully my home is on a hill. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Supercane Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 image Those are the 18z GEFS tracks. Here's the 00z plot. Note there are 2 very distinct camps, with some members keeping it east of the US and the rest hitting between Myrtle and Cheseapke. The 00z operational GFS track into NJ has absolutely no support. But that is an increase in the number of ensemble members staying east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Euro running looks like it initialized with a 972mb low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxduncan Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 CMC Totals Through Hour 102: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thrasher Fan Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Euro running looks like it initialized with a 972mb low moving south too. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sctvman Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Charleston in the bullseye of the 20"+ totals. Heck, this area floods during high tide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncskywarn Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Any further update on the euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Any further update on the euro? Its the same thru 72 hrs far as I can see.....the 96hr panel at 12Z was a huge move NE so we should know if the 00Z is OTS next panel or two.. Edit: I was looking at the wrong run its actually faster OTS this run lol right into huge monster ridge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxduncan Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Any further update on the euro? Looks OTS as before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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