Snowless in Carrollton Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 On 10/1/2015 at 4:04 AM, sarcean said: NC will still get tons of flooding rain either way but obviously not nearly as many power outages or storm surge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 On 10/1/2015 at 4:04 AM, downeastnc said: The 18Z GFS initialized way to weak and it goes really slow the first 48 hrs versus its previous runs thus the differences.....not sure how reliable this run is. UK agrees, this ain't hitting NC. Prelude to winter, at least the weekend won't be a washout here in NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Ukmet looks similar to GFS at 96 hrs. Well east of NC coast... Edit: Nobody should get too excited about any model output right now. It's pretty common for all of the models to whiff on the ultimate path of a storm in the 4 day timeframe... this thing still has time to go anywhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Meh 00Z GFS has it as a 992MB low at first plot this run versus the 945-950 range the storm is really at...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoCoWx Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 On 10/1/2015 at 4:08 AM, burrel2 said: Ukmet looks similar to GFS at 96 hrs. Well east of NC coast... Does it hook into the bay, though, like the GFS? Hopefully it'll keep trending away from all of us... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 GFS is still a awful model...... NEVER buy it's solution.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 What a fail. Congrats euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BigWeather Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 On the one hand I'm glad that maybe NC won't take a hit. We don't need the additional rain and the wind (though we'll still get a lot of wind as it passes but hopefully not tree-toppling). On the other hand, now the Northeast Media Machine will crank up and it can get unbearable at times. Not because they shouldn't sound the alarm (they should!) but because as long as it is a NC storm it seems like nobody cared. And that stinks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 So is anyone interested in volunteering to help clean up from the flooding rains that the GFS is still putting out for WNC since some is saying its over and its a snooze fest? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 On 10/1/2015 at 4:16 AM, BigWeather said: On the one hand I'm glad that maybe NC won't take a hit. We don't need the additional rain and the wind (though we'll still get a lot of wind as it passes but hopefully not tree-toppling). On the other hand, now the Northeast Media Machine will crank up and it can get unbearable at times. Not because they shouldn't sound the alarm (they should!) but because as long as it is a NC storm it seems like nobody cares. honestly I don't see anyone in the US getting a direct hit out of Joaquin, but yeah nc will still get its share of rain. This is really great news for NC. Could have been total devastation and I don't care how much you like extreme weather, no one wants to go through something like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 On 10/1/2015 at 4:17 AM, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said: So is anyone interested in volunteering to help clean up from the flooding rains that the GFS is still putting out for WNC since some is saying its over and its a snooze fest? Can't trust GFS totals at all. JMO yesterday it gave me 29 inches.LOL 12z today 5.31 just 2 feet difference in less than 24 hours!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 I wonder if the NHC will adjust its track eastward on the next advisory or wait ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Joe Bastardi @BigJoeBastardi 3m3 minutes agoState College, PA GFS to me, unless ECMWF shifts TOWARD IT means the escape idea of the ECMWF is likely to win out. GFS starting to adjust toward ECMWF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BigWeather Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 On 10/1/2015 at 4:18 AM, snowstorm2011 said: honestly I don't see anyone in the US getting a direct hit out of Joaquin, but yeah nc will still get its share of rain. This is really great news for NC. Could have been total devastation and I don't care how much you like extreme weather, no one wants to go through something like that. Amen. Fran and Floyd were plenty enough tropical action for me. With my parents in Onslow county I'm really, really happy that hopefully this will cruise on by. Feel for my Northeast family (Riverhead, Long Island) though. Hopefully it'll go completely out to sea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 On 10/1/2015 at 4:20 AM, BIG FROSTY said: Can't trust GFS totals at all. JMO yesterday it gave me 29 inches.LOL 12z today 5.31 just 2 feet difference in less than 24 hours!!! Well the Euro has been consistently giving my area here in the foothills right at a foot each run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 On 10/1/2015 at 4:21 AM, BigWeather said: Amen. Fran and Floyd were plenty enough tropical action for me. With my parents in Onslow county I'm really, really happy that hopefully this will cruise on by. Feel for my Northeast family (Riverhead, Long Island) though. Hopefully it'll go completely out to sea. yeah I'm hoping and praying this thing goes out to sea also. The east coast dealt with enough with Sandy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNC_Fort Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 On 10/1/2015 at 4:22 AM, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said: Well the Euro has been consistently giving my area here in the foothills right at a foot each run Similar numbers from the GFS this run, despite its shift? That ULL means business either way apparently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 All hail the doc? Lol. Ok not yet, but if trends continue and the euro stays the same. Well time to take the SC/NC idea off the board. We shall see. I still favor NC, but that might have to be adjusted northward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metro Devils Fan Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Any landfall on the ukie? Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 On 10/1/2015 at 4:22 AM, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said: Well the Euro has been consistently giving my area here in the foothills right at a foot each run No doubt we'll still see a lot of rain. If we have no influence from hurricane.... I'm not saying we want see a good rain event, just not what GFS shows. unless euro comes left and this run of GFS was a dud. euro wins is what I was trying to say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Supercane Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 GFS and UKMET both shifted substantially east. The UKMET takes this to Canada now. This looks like the start of a mass surrender to the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Something to watch. The 00z gfs has the storm trackin almost due west from its initialized spot. It never hits the Bahamas... The storm right now is still trucking southwest so we should see a change in direction if gfs is indeed correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 On 10/1/2015 at 4:26 AM, BIG FROSTY said: No doubt we'll still see a lot of rain. If we have no influence from hurricane.... I'm not saying we want see a good rain event, just not what GFS shows. unless euro comes left and this run of GFS was a dud. euro wins is what I was trying to say. Right but actually the GFS is on the lower end of precip amounts here. Euro has been consistently the highest amounts of precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metro Devils Fan Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 On 10/1/2015 at 4:28 AM, Supercane said: GFS and UKMET both shifted substantially east. The UKMET takes this to Canada now. This looks like the start of a mass surrender to the Euro. So the landfall is in Canada on the ukie? Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 On 10/1/2015 at 4:29 AM, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said: Right but actually the GFS is on the lower end of precip amounts here. Euro has been consistently the highest amounts of precip. yeah, I know! yesterday it was very high end for me. That's what I meant. lol it's all good and wet! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Supercane Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 On 10/1/2015 at 4:30 AM, Metro Devils Fan said: So the landfall is in Canada on the ukie? Sent from my iPhone Correct. You can see it here as the blue line (this map updates): http://www.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/plots/storm_11.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metro Devils Fan Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 On 10/1/2015 at 4:35 AM, Supercane said: Correct. You can see it here as the blue line (this map updates): http://www.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/plots/storm_11.gif Thank you sir Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Ukie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILMRoss Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 When do the gfs ensembles come out? Need to brush up on all these intricate model timetables in time for winter. With something so delicate as interaction with the trough, I'd assume the ensembles will be a bit all over the board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 On 10/1/2015 at 4:46 AM, snowstorm2011 said: When does the Euro come out ? Euro should be out by 2ish.... HWRF running now initialized 946mb has him moving due north at 42 hrs right along 75W...peaks at 918 mb at 24 hrs...lets see if it goes east as well. 00Z CMC is running now as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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