Shawn Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Hearing the 00z GFS initialized the pressure of Joaquin at 965, which is very wrong. Hearing reports of flight measuring 946MB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 My biggest complaint so far with this storm is who or how in God's name penciled this name in on paper. I mean really how bout jody, james, jack something the avg redneck can pronounce. wah keen. Just like Joaquin Phoenix. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormsfury Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 There is something to say with storms that RI as they drift south begin to transition north they rapidly expand their outflow. Katrina and Sandy are examples of the worst case scenario. Interactions with the trough are very important we may have a very broad cat 3 with tons of water coming in vs a very compact storm. Yes indeed. It was also noted by the craft that had communication problems tonight investigating Joaquin that there was a lot of lightning in the core I believe. I've noticed with some hurricanes and trough interactions how upper diffluence can sometimes lead to a TC rapidly intensifying (Charley, Opal, Sandy, Hugo to some extent also). Also the broadening wind field. These trees won't be able to handle it with all this preconditioned saturated ground feom the ULL first and the already heavy rains recently. This scenario technically sucks for the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sarcean Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Hearing the 00z GFS initialized the pressure of Joaquin at 965, which is very wrong. Hearing reports of flight measuring 946MB. Which doesnt matter from what I have read Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormsfury Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Hearing the 00z GFS initialized the pressure of Joaquin at 965, which is very wrong. Hearing reports of flight measuring 946MB. Last recon message was 952mb open N circular 28nm eye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Last recon message was 952mb open N circular 28nm eye. Thanks. I had seen a tweet from Wright-Weather about 130mph surface and 946mb just a few minutes ago. Not sure where that came from.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 System is slower on the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 0z GFS still has the ULL centered deep over AL by 42 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Through 36 hours, 0z GFS is further southeast of 18z position by a decent, but not staggering amount. Hard to tell if that's just slower movement or an actual track change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormsfury Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 My biggest complaint so far with this storm is who or how in God's name someone penciled this name in on paper. I mean really how bout jody, james, jack something the avg redneck can pronounce. Well take that up to the WMO (World Meteorological Organization) as they are responsible for the names of storms. Since ATL tropical cyclones affect non-English speaking countries as well, a mix of Spanish, English and French namea are used. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 By 51 hrs a ton of rain is falling over the Carolinas while Joaquin still over the Bahamas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Way east at hour 60....start getting the championship belt for the Euro...it will be close Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 By 51 hrs a ton of rain is falling over the Carolinas while Joaquin still over the Bahamas. my goodness if its going to just sit over the Bahamas for days and days wouldn't that help to prevent it from strengthening too much since it would sit over the same areas and cause the ocean water to cool ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 GFS is slower with the storm, further east compared to 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Way east at hour 60....start getting the championship belt for the Euro...it will be close What does it say about me that I'd rather it damage a large area of the country just so DT and Euro are defeated? Yeah, I know, nothing good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 What does it say about me that I'd rather it damage a large area of the country just so DT and Euro are defeated? Yeah, I know, nothing good. I'm sure you are just joking, or I hope you are anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncskywarn Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Actually the last vortex data message listed at 01/0343 show a pressure of 950 millibars with a 22 mile circular eye open on the NW side also shows MAX FL WIND 117 KT 123 / 16 NM 03:04:30Z CNTR DROPSONDE SFC WIND 260 / 19 KT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jshetley Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 This storm is long gone. Going to stay away from the SE part of the US this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 way way east looks OTS easy at this point....has a weaker system and moves it much slower than previous runs......now watch the Euro come west lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 No big changes in the 6 hours since the last GFS run -- oh, except a 500 mile move to the east and apparently no landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_WX10 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 score one for the Euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Well, is the GFS going to hit the NE...time for bed, snoozer of an event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowacane Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Sweet OTS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sarcean Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 You guys with slower model data need to let the run play out. It gets captured at hr 78 and has no choice but to left hook right into the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 You guys with slower model data need to let the run play out. It gets captured at hr 78 and has no choice but to left hook right into the coast.[/size] Yeah, in Jersey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 I know a lot of you probably were hoping the Euro was wrong, but I for one am glad the Euro will probably be right. Hopefully that means we will have some nice weather this weekend ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoCoWx Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 You guys with slower model data need to let the run play out. It gets captured at hr 78 and has no choice but to left hook right into the coast. But it is a clear trend toward what the Euro has been saying compared to what the GFS was depicting, and there's still another day or so left for it to trend in either direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RubiksDestroyer Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 I said this earlier about the 18z GFS, but the 00z was initialized with a pressure of 990 mb, which sends red flags about the output. You can't tell me a 40 mb difference on a storm has no impact in its track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Well, is the GFS going to hit the NE...time for bed, snoozer of an event. The 00Z GFS initialized way to weak and it goes really slow the first 48 hrs versus its previous runs thus the differences.....not sure how reliable this run is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sarcean Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Yeah, in Jersey. NC will still get tons of flooding rain either way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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