HKY_WX Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Hold on man, dont start panicking yet. WCS you still have til Sat morning or so to prep. Nothing to run out for at 10:00 on Thurs night Yea, not panicked, but don't feel like dealing with raleigh traffic in these grocery stories. I think maybe i'll hit up harris teeter tomorrow at lunch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 I'm tempted to go stock up on groceries tonight. A cat 3 hitting the NC coast on a WNW heading will give Raleigh 100mph winds. I am a little worried at this point. I went tonight. I am worried about the trees in my back yard, though. Might have to go stay with my folks if this looks like it is coming this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxduncan Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 A Cat 4 hurricane with landfall in SC heading WNW. Sounds familiar. HUGO! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
btownheel Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 It won't be a cat 4 at landfall. ULL interaction and change to a hybrid storm will weaken it but expand the wind field I expect. It's not going to weaken much, not with the ridge and the warm water source, not on the northeast side at least.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Supercane Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 i can't get over the fact it was forecasted to dissipate initially..now a solid cat 4 is forecasted. pretty amazing and a testament to how much there is to go in forecasting these things. Yep. I can't recall another major hurricane that was first forecast to only remain a TD (let alone a short-lived one). Cat 3 Michael 2012 is the closest I remember (first forecast to peak at 35kt). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 i can't get over the fact it was forecasted to dissipate initially..now a solid cat 4 is forecasted. pretty amazing and a testament to how much there is to go in forecasting these things. Should be some good studies looking at how Erika in a high shear environment failed vs Joaquin. Joaquin somehow went through RI with at the start strong shear and is still going through moderate shear. Water Temps are similar but I talked with a Colleague and he's old school and said anytime a storm bends S from a E-W heading, it means RI because of the venting of the high to the north, it's an old sailor's rule. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormsfury Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 really really surprised they didn't shift the track. i guess they are waiting on the full 0z suite but they are considerably further east than most of the guidance without giving much of a real reason why. You and me both. I was expecting a shift west to at least MHX. I'm speculating they're waiting on the 00z EURO and other guidance to pull the trigger on a shift. Then the upping to 140 mph in 24 hours. Probably the most ideal conditions al season for a TC in the ATL and waters untapped by any other TC this entire season. All the ingredients are there for potential disaster. Ugh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Should be some good studies looking at how Erika in a high shear environment failed vs Joaquin. Joaquin somehow went through RI with at the start strong shear and is still going through moderate shear. Water Temps are similar but I talked with a Colleague and he's old school and said anytime a storm bends S from a E-W heading, it means RI because of the venting of the high to the north, it's an old sailor's rule. It's what my great uncle would always say btw....as many have noted......he's a handsome storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 It would be very unusual to see a storm not weaken as it comes into the coast. Given the interaction I would say it stays strong cat 2 strength but I don't know about a cat 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 You and me both. I was expecting a shift west to at least MHX. I'm speculating they're waiting on the 00z EURO and other guidance to pull the trigger on a shift. Then the upping to 140 mph in 24 hours. Probably the most ideal conditions al season for a TC in the ATL and waters untapped by any other TC this entire season. All the ingredients are there for potential disaster. Ugh. Out-to-sea would be really great given the intensity. The economically depressed coastal plain areas do not need this after a week of significant rainfall. It would be an absolute disaster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hugo Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 You and me both. I was expecting a shift west to at least MHX. I'm speculating they're waiting on the 00z EURO and other guidance to pull the trigger on a shift. Then the upping to 140 mph in 24 hours. Probably the most ideal conditions al season for a TC in the ATL and waters untapped by any other TC this entire season. All the ingredients are there for potential disaster. Ugh. If the euro comes into agreement then it's easy to justify sounding the alarm at 5 am and people will still wake up to the news just like if they'd done it at 11. Waiting until 5 is the smart choice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Yeah this was an old hurricane hunter vet talking about his rides back in '77 but really it makes synoptic sense. Katrina did the same thing after passing over Florida. The storm's eye isn't beautiful right now but that northward expansion of the CDO means once this storm can wrap that convection around to the west side that it is going to test those low gfdl/hrwf numbers. It's what my great uncle would always say btw....as many have noted......he's a handsome storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 If the euro comes into agreement then it's easy to justify sounding the alarm at 5 am and people will still wake up to the news just like if they'd done it at 11. Waiting until 5 is the smart choice. Yeah, pretty darn reasonable. It's still 3 days away. People are already getting nervous anyway thanks to big name weather outlets and social media talk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Time for the can and Ukie. Getting late who's got the dibs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Our news 4 weather guy, just said the Euro was the most reliable tropical model! Guess we will see if that's true!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Time filo the can and Ukie. Getting late who's got the dibs I'd rather sleep. Have fun, y'all. I'm guessing south and west and stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormsfury Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Yeah this was an old hurricane hunter vet talking about his rides back in '77 but really it makes synoptic sense. Katrina did the same thing after passing over Florida. The storm's eye isn't beautiful right now but that northward expansion of the CDO means once this storm can wrap that convection around to the west side that it is going to test those low gfdl/hrwf numbers. I almost mentioned katrina's initial SE movement crossing Florida and what makes me nervous is how with Katrina, the guidance just kept shifting west for days on end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormsfury Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Out-to-sea would be really great given the intensity. The economically depressed coastal plain areas do not need this after a week of significant rainfall. It would be an absolute disaster. Given the cutoff ULL is expected to just inundate the region first then the potential Joaquin impacts. Absolute worst case scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Yeah this was an old hurricane hunter vet talking about his rides back in '77 but really it makes synoptic sense. Katrina did the same thing after passing over Florida. The storm's eye isn't beautiful right now but that northward expansion of the CDO means once this storm can wrap that convection around to the west side that it is going to test those low gfdl/hrwf numbers. Agree.....It's been awhile since we've seen such hurricane sexyness in the Atlantic My concern is how much further west do these features continue to go? The euro tonight will be interesting to say the least....lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 I'd rather sleep. Have fun, y'all. I'm guessing south and west and stronger. Yeah I can't stay up like that yet. I will say the Euro will cave to the rest of the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UpstateSCBud Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Our news 4 weather guy, just said the Euro was the most reliable tropical model! Guess we will see if that's true!? Was this Justus or Cessarich? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncskywarn Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Greg Fischel on WRAL just did a comparison of the GFS and European models and actually just said that he thinks the American GFS has a better handle on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 I almost mentioned katrina's initial SE movement crossing Florida and what makes me nervous is how with Katrina, the guidance just kept shifting west for days on end. There is something to say with storms that RI as they drift south begin to transition north they rapidly expand their outflow. Katrina and Sandy are examples of the worst case scenario. Interactions with the trough are very important we may have a very broad cat 3 with tons of water coming in vs a very compact storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Our local mets are sticking with the Mid-Atlantic hit somewhere for the most part. I don't like the setup being close to anything to do with Hugo. Either way, there is a flood coming storm or not here in SC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steven_1974 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Out-to-sea would be really great given the intensity. The economically depressed coastal plain areas do not need this after a week of significant rainfall. It would be an absolute disaster. Amen! I am certainly keeping my fingers crossed. Not keen on the trees around my place and would feel the need to skip town if it ends up being forecast to come this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Was this Justus or Cessarich?Johnny C. I too, as others have said, think the Euro will cave tonight , or it will score the biggest upset, that will be talked about for YEARS! All hail GFS! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 There is a good chance Joaquin would be making landfall on the 20 year anniversary of Hurricane Opal in 1995. That storm did a ton of damage in my area. It weakened considerably right before landfall or it would have done even more damage. The combination of 8 inches of rain plus 80mph winds caused a ton of trees to fall on houses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 If the euro comes into agreement then it's easy to justify sounding the alarm at 5 am and people will still wake up to the news just like if they'd done it at 11. Waiting until 5 is the smart choice. Sounds like they are planning on waiting longer than that. 5. A hurricane watch for a portion of the U.S. coast could be required as early as Thursday evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
btownheel Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Greg Fischel on WRAL just did a comparison of the GFS and European models and actually just said that he thinks the American GFS has a better handle on it. That's a big deal coming from him. Fishel trends hard towards the conservative. I think he wants to make sure everyone is warned in case this thing realizes it's potential.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 My biggest complaint so far with this storm is who or how in God's name someone penciled this name in on paper. I mean really how bout jody, james, jack something the avg redneck can pronounce. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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