Brick Tamland Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 Just catching up on the 12z runs...12z Euro has biblical rains across NC/VA. Just hoping it is way too extreme as usual when it comes to rain and snow totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 My goodness...the Euro rains hard starting tomorrow through Sunday and still going. 12"+ across bulk of central NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevDodd Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 Euro appears to be setting up similar, with secondary low off the NC coast. Scenario would dump the eastern half of the state. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 Just hoping it is way too extreme as usual when it comes to rain and snow totals. Unfortunately, unless things dramatically change, the ULL/cutoff is going to dump on someone. If Joaquin get's absorbed in, which the Euro doesn't do, then we would have to talk something really bad. It might be 20" of rain across central NC this run, LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevDodd Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 My goodness...the Euro rains hard starting tomorrow through Sunday and still going. 12"+ across bulk of central NC. Gives that Saturday game vs. Louisville at '99 David-esque appearance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevDodd Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 Just hoping it is way too extreme as usual when it comes to rain and snow totals. I dunno ... GFS and Euro on the same page as far as rainfall. We may never get the grass cut. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 Unfortunately, unless things dramatically change, the ULL/cutoff is going to dump on someone. If Joaquin get's absorbed in, which the Euro doesn't do, then we would have to talk something really bad. It might be 20" of rain across central NC this run, LOL. So the rain it is showing is not from Joaquin at all? Or is it from Joaquin but just not showing it coming on shore in NC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 Gives that Saturday game vs. Louisville at '99 David-esque appearance. With that big block to the north....where is it going to go, it can't climb to far and just crawls to the south of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 The UK run would be far worse if it verified, consolidated low tracking across NC/VA, crazy rain amounts on top of bad winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 So the rain it is showing is not from Joaquin at all? Or is it from Joaquin but just not showing it coming on shore in NC? No Joaquin in it that I can tell, there might a little interaction but bulk is from cutoff low that stalls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted September 29, 2015 Author Share Posted September 29, 2015 Levi Cowan @TropicalTidbits 2m2 minutes ago Recon finding what looks like a rapidly-intensifying #Joaquin: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 No Joaquin in it that I can tell, there might a little interaction but bulk is from cutoff low that stalls. Maps please! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 Maps please! UK precip, 100+mm just through Friday 12z, I would imagine it would be 10"+ like the Euro if we had it out to 144. Euro precip map too, LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 ^ Great googly moogly. Thanks man. I wonder how many hundreds of miles that will shift between now and game time. Probably many. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 ^ Great googly moogly. Thanks man. I wonder how many hundreds of miles that will shift between now and game time. Probably many. LOL...well these type storms the past few years have always ended up between the MA/NE, no reason to thing that won't continue. In this case I don't really care, would rather it not rain hard for 5 straight days. The CMC/NAVGEM drive a consolidated low up into the MA, so that takes the heaviest rains north of us. We shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 LOL...well these type storms the past few years have always ended up between the MA/NE, no reason to thing that won't continue. In this case I don't really care, would rather it not rain hard for 5 straight days. The CMC/NAVGEM drive a consolidated low up into the MA, so that takes the heaviest rains north of us. We shall see. If the CMC and NAVGEM lead the way with this, oh man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted September 29, 2015 Author Share Posted September 29, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted September 29, 2015 Author Share Posted September 29, 2015 Ryan Maue @RyanMaue 2m2 minutes ago Scenario where #Joaquin heads out to sea -- a model solution shows extreme rainfall potential over N. Carolina & VA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 Even though the Euro doesn't fold in Joaquin, it looks like the net results are similar with the strong 850mb flow off Joachin focused into NC (bottom image), for now anyway Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 If the CMC and NAVGEM lead the way with this, oh man. So it looks like the Euro, GFS, and Canadian all have a huge rain maker for NC. I think it would be smarter to bet on those three. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 Should we have a separate thread for the system bringing all the rain if it is really separate from Joaquin? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted September 29, 2015 Author Share Posted September 29, 2015 Eric Holthaus Verified account @EricHolthaus 10m10 minutes ago Latest hurricane hunter pass through #Joaquin’s center reported a 20-mile wide eye has formed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted September 29, 2015 Author Share Posted September 29, 2015 Should we have a separate thread for the system bringing all the rain if it is really separate from Joaquin? Just change the 24-27thish thread to Noah's Ark Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevDodd Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 Should we have a separate thread for the system bringing all the rain if it is really separate from Joaquin? Might not be a bad idea ... If Joaquin continues on a path that would hit the Northeast, our rain concerns and their storm concerns could come to cross purposes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eastatlwx Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 Just change the 24-27thish thread to Noah's Ark I really like that idea, if models consistently show that type of rain in nc and all models get on board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 Ryan Maue @RyanMaue 2m2 minutes ago Scenario where #Joaquin heads out to sea -- a model solution shows extreme rainfall potential over N. Carolina & VA Mby is the big blue whole of nothing on this map! I consider that a win at this juncture! Never want to be bullseyed 3-6 days out! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 I am not going to start it, but maybe someone or a mod could start one for the 9/30 to 10/4 period if it looks like Joaquin is going to head north and our problem is going to be rain from the low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 Pretty big jump on the Euro ENS from 0z to 12z, the block is stronger and thus everything is further south and thus QPF max is over C/E NC and VA. Very similar to the Op run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 Looks like he is really starting to look better this afternoon. He might just be a cane close to the bahama islands. There was a similar push of moisture up over eastern NC as Floyd approached the coast. The day before he hit we had an inland trough over us and over 6 inches of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 Pretty big jump on the Euro ENS from 0z to 12z, the block is stronger and thus everything is further south and thus QPF max is over C/E NC and VA. Very similar to the Op run. Thats very telling imo. Already getting flooding in our coastal areas. So the table is set for some big time flood damage if these model trends are to be beleived. Euro ens suporting its Op inside 96 hours is always a big heads up for me. Several places in Southport where closed today due to flooding. Sure there is alot more going on with tides e.t.c for the communities on the inner sounds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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