Snowless in Carrollton Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Live video discussion on Joaquin with local mets: thanks for posting that. I don't know who brad panovich is but just by listening to him he seems like he knows his stuff. Sounds like a good met. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Wxrisk.com yes I know Joaquin is bombing out and as I said yesterday the stronger he becomes the harder it is for the Upper Low to grab and pull it into the NC VA coast Like · Reply · 16 · 11 mins Does he ever not sound so smug and arrogant? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormsfury Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 honestly if i was you i'd start getting nervous a little by now since even south carolina is now in the game for a possible landfall at this point..which the jma of all models had progged the last 2 runs interestingly enough. it's crazy how far west the models keep trending...and this is with the sampling data. i'm sure nc is still the likely area but each run just keeps trending further. I'm already nervous. The trends continue west all day and if the Euro caves, it's looking more likely that the Carolinas are in for a potential disaster. So much for a quiet El Nino driven hurricane season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 No explanation for what exactly synoptically that is, just that the Euro sees "it" You should read it as I am giving a crude summary of what he wrote. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Ive been watching WRAL weather for 2 days and they have been and still do have J curving OTS. I trust them over any of these "models". This thing is not coming inland unless its in N.E. What do you think they use? The o ly reason Fishel said that is because he likes the Euro more than the other ones. Maybe he is right, but that is not what the odds are favoring now. The Euro is all on it's own. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 This is some good stuff from all the participants.Yes it is. Very informative and down to earth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 thanks for posting that. I don't know who brad panovich is but just by listening to him he seems like he knows his stuff. Sounds like a good met. Brad P is chief met at WCNC Charlotte, the NBC affiliate. He's fantastic and very social media active. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Models have begun. Now starts the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Duh i know they use the models ........as well as a little logic. The models that so many people on here gag over are just that-models. 20 of em show 20 different things. This thing aint hitting NC or SC and u can take that to the bank my friend. Dont need a model for that.Part of the whole reason the board exists is to follow the model runs. They are not all the same, but all of them but one now show a hit in NC. So thry are not showing 20 different things.So how do you know it isn't going to hit? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 No, and I can't think of a 4 that has ever hit NC if you're a stickler for Hazel officially having made landfall about a mile south of the border. Was there any other 4? No Hazel is the only Cat 4 that is credited for landfalling in NC, well since records were kept I am sure there have been others in the last 500 yrs or so lol.....so its pretty rare. With this setup I would think 110-125 mph would be top end potential for a landfall, with the setup if things did come together just right with ULL venting and strong tropical feed and stupid warm waters ... I wouldn't call for it just yet but its just as likely as it coming in as a weak Cat 1 IMO...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Supercane Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 I've heard about 20 different explanations, from reputable people, for the Euro's out-to-sea solution. Levi Cowan's (also elaborated by Ground Scouring in the main thread) makes the most sense to me -- he notes that the Euro members that kick it east show a smaller/weaker storm. A smaller storm would be less susceptible to feeling the influence from the ULL to the west. While I don't have access to Euro convective/precip/cloud extent, its SLP field for Joaquin does look noticeably more compact than that shown on the GFS. Whether or not that's the only reason for the Euro's eastward push or there are other subtle differences in the ridge/trough depictions at play is anyone's guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMA1973 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Part of the whole reason the board exists is to follow the model runs. They are not all the same, but all of them but one now show a hit in NC. So thry are not showing 20 different things. So how do you know it isn't going to hit? The model runs are ridiculous. Its law of averages...if there are enough of them one is bound to be close LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Wasn't Fran the last cat 3 to make landfall in NC ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 The model runs are ridiculous. Its law of averages...if there are enough of them one is bound to be close LOL. The problem is, most other mets on the east coast (even the weather channel) give credit to the Euro because of it's accurate history.. but make sure people know it's alone.. and tell/show people what the other modeling does. If I knew nothing about weather, I would prefer that to just being shown a track out to sea based off a model that the met happened to prefer even if it was all alone. Edit: Basically, I'd rather be told "i have no idea lets wait and see" than to get a down-right wrong forecast in a potentially dangerous situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Wasn't Fran the last cat 3 to make landfall in NC ? Yes..... I've heard about 20 different explanations, from reputable people, for the Euro's out-to-sea solution. Levi Cowan's (also elaborated by Ground Scouring in the main thread) makes the most sense to me -- he notes that the Euro members that kick it east show a smaller/weaker storm. A smaller storm would be less susceptible to feeling the influence from the ULL to the west. While I don't have access to Euro convective/precip/cloud extent, its SLP field for Joaquin does look noticeably more compact than that shown on the GFS. Whether or not that's the only reason for the Euro's eastward push or there are other subtle differences in the ridge/trough depictions at play is anyone's guess. Now DT is saying just the opposite lol, if the 00Z stay the same I suspect the NHC will abandon the Euro and go with the consensus they cant afford not to......they need the move the landfall south a bit and move the first inland plot west so that people know what they are potentially facing... if it ends up OTS that's fine but better to prepare folks given the possibility of a widespread high impact event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 No Hazel is the only Cat 4 that is credited for landfalling in NC, well since records were kept I am sure there have been others in the last 500 yrs or so lol.....so its pretty rare. With this setup I would think 110-125 mph would be top end potential for a landfall, with the setup if things did come together just right with ULL venting and strong tropical feed and stupid warm waters ... I wouldn't call for it just yet but its just as likely as it coming in as a weak Cat 1 IMO...... I just looked up hazel and it was still a cat 1 hurricane in Toronto. Pretty impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Hot off the presses! LOL new weather video update talking about Joaquin. Not a super long update, but some thoughts and ideas on there as well. Thanks for watching and like my page if you want. Thanks! @wxmanchris on twitter as well. https://www.facebook.com/ChriswxmanSimmons Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Brier creek is back! IP check and Ban hammer Incoming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 The problem is, most other mets on the east coast (even the weather channel) give credit to the Euro because of it's accurate history.. but make sure people know it's alone.. and tell/show people what the other modeling does. If I knew nothing about weather, I would prefer that to just being shown a track out to sea based off a model that the met happened to prefer even if it was all alone. Also just because the Euro is right a lot doesn't mean it isn't completely wrong this time, the Euro does miss and given the fact that there is not real spread in the others you have to think this is one of those times....if it does end up being right great but in the meantime if it is wrong its time to let the folks in the Carolinas north know they are in for a hell of a weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Wasn't Fran the last cat 3 to make landfall in NC ? I want to say yes but I am not certain it maintained Cat3 at landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 I'm already nervous. The trends continue west all day and if the Euro caves, it's looking more likely that the Carolinas are in for a potential disaster. So much for a quiet El Nino driven hurricane season. No kidding...whats funny is, the model that usually overdoes trof and further east usually (GFS) and the euro over does ridges and is further west is the opposite. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 The model runs are ridiculous. Its law of averages...if there are enough of them one is bound to be close LOL. Then you might as well just listen to your local met. No need to come here and discuss things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 I want to say yes but I am not certain it maintained Cat3 at landfall. 125 at landfall if I remember correctly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DJnVa Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 that's pretty incredible that in all of recorded history there hasn't been a single cat 5 landfall in NC. I guess that just goes to show how rare cat 5's are Or how short a span in time "recorded history" is in this part of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Supercane Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Fran was the last major hurricane to hit the Carolinas, at 100kt / 115mph. There have been quite a few category 2 hits since then, however (Bonnie, Floyd, Isabel, Arthur). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILMRoss Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 One thing that really worries me is the potential storm surge of this storm, because of the awkward angle it's going to be taking into the state of NC if it comes. Frankly, I think the Euro is going to end of being right based on the persistent southward component of Joaquin and how the Euro has been handling that motion the best in my opinion. However, NC is used to storms coming in from the S or SSE. Joaquin, if it makes landfall, will have a large eastward component to it. Anywhere south of Isabel has seen a lot of time pass since the last surge to come in from mainly the east, and not the south. Don't know if it will have much of an impact, but just something I have on my mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Also just because the Euro is right a lot doesn't mean it isn't completely wrong this time, the Euro does miss and given the fact that there is not real spread in the others you have to think this is one of those times....if it does end up being right great but in the meantime if it is wrong its time to let the folks in the Carolinas north know they are in for a hell of a weekend. Be careful about the spread. Many of the tropical models initialize based on the GFS and use GFS boundary conditions. It's not surprising that they often follow the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 One thing that really worries me is the potential storm surge of this storm, because of the awkward angle it's going to be taking into the state of NC if it comes. Frankly, I think the Euro is going to end of being right based on the persistent southward component of Joaquin and how the Euro has been handling that motion the best in my opinion. However, NC is used to storms coming in from the S or SSE. Joaquin, if it makes landfall, will have a large eastward component to it. Anywhere south of Isabel has seen a lot of time pass since the last surge to come in from mainly the east, and not the south. Don't know if it will have much of an impact, but just something I have on my mind. The thing is though is that the GFS and the Euro are within maybe 50-75 miles of each other at their 12Z Thur plot I mean its basically a wash the real difference between the two is the Euro gives more weight to the ULL out over the Atl and ALL the other models give more weight to the ULL cutoff over west Tenn.....up till tomorrow afternoon all the models are pretty much together including the Euro on position. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Supercane Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 One thing that really worries me is the potential storm surge of this storm, because of the awkward angle it's going to be taking into the state of NC if it comes. Frankly, I think the Euro is going to end of being right based on the persistent southward component of Joaquin and how the Euro has been handling that motion the best in my opinion. However, NC is used to storms coming in from the S or SSE. Joaquin, if it makes landfall, will have a large eastward component to it. Anywhere south of Isabel has seen a lot of time pass since the last surge to come in from mainly the east, and not the south. Don't know if it will have much of an impact, but just something I have on my mind. I'm not so sure a more southward motion explains the discrepancy between the Euro and the GFS anymore. The 12z Euro 24-hour position and the 18z GFS 18-hour position (same lead time) are almost identical. The Euro's 48-hour point is about due west, so presumably it doesn't get much farther south on the 12z Euro. To put simply, the GFS and Euro are in agreement on how far south this gets now. The key difference between the two models seems to be in the motion after the aforementioned time frame. You do bring up a good point that the Euro has been leading the way on the more southward movement for the past day or so, which is one reason why I don't want to write it off just yet. Edit: downeast beat me to it lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Supercane Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Be careful about the spread. Many of the tropical models initialize based on the GFS and use GFS boundary conditions. It's not surprising that they often follow the GFS. Yeah, the tropical model suite is usually garbage and not worth attention (save the HWRF which does have track skill). It's more notable that the UKMET, GFS Ensembles, and CMC (in that order) are largely in agreement with the GFS op, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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