btownheel Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 This is a cat 3 already pressure wise. Winds will follow suite. The longer the plane hangs out there you'll see. Just saw 113 and it hadn't got to nw quad yet. Hwrf and gfdl are basically lock step with each other. Also the way this trough goes negative tilt is gonna vent it perfect not to mention the warm ssts. Tell you it's the perfect prog setting up to allow the storm to get maximum benefit conducive to writing a new chapter in history. Reminds of Hazel how it fester ed a little futher south then used a negative tilted trough and barcilonic environment to go to town in October of 54 I beleive. It's the weenie in me; but with the perfect set of conditions this thing has and the distance it has to travel over some of the warmest water ever recorded, is Hugo/Andrew intensity possible here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 My assumption was right to not count SC out. Better modeling/data should be coming through the next day or so to really nail down a better spot. The Euro solution is starting to become something to be ignored if this keeps up. The storm is rapidly strengthening. Very intrigued to see what happens tonight with the ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 This thing will be a beauty (appearance wise) with the outflow as it approaches landfall, look up a pic of Hugo as it approached SC. I have a framed picture of it on my wall. It has been a long time since we had a real looker in the atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goldman75 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 I'm curious to see if the 11pm cone includes myrtle beach now. I wouldn't be shocked according to these new spagehti models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted October 1, 2015 Author Share Posted October 1, 2015 Just curious and serious, what's DT saying? Normally people post his musings!?? Wxrisk.com yes I know Joaquin is bombing out and as I said yesterday the stronger he becomes the harder it is for the Upper Low to grab and pull it into the NC VA coast Like · Reply · 16 · 11 mins Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Is there anything to suggest this thing is capable of becoming a cat 5 hurricane ? Has a cat 5 hurricane ever made landfall in NC ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 heck of a storm right now, beautiful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNC_Fort Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 With the ULL and Joaquin not totally out of the question, the mountains definitely need to keep an eye out for some potential devastating flooding. I know in some of my fellow foothill communities we are still drying out from this past weekend where some people picked up 10+ inches. Should be an interesting weekend thats for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevDodd Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Fishel is really holding on to the Euro. He says that he's not convinced it isn't wrong yet, considering its domination over the American model in recent years. He's still got time, another 24 hours or so, to come around ... or to look like a genius if the Euro holds. How folks predict the weekend will be remembered, not what was said Wednesday. Or Tuesday, when Maze kept telling viewers that "none of our upcoming weather will have anything to do with Joaquin. It won't be anywhere near North Carolina." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 ^^^ THAT is a major cane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted October 1, 2015 Author Share Posted October 1, 2015 Jonathan (#GoNoles) @JonathanBelles 10m10 minutes ago Intensity models initialized at 115 mph. Upgrade likely on the way for #Joaquin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 With the ULL and Joaquin not totally out of the question, the mountains definitely need to keep an eye out for some potential devastating flooding. I know in some of my fellow foothill communities we are still drying out from this past weekend where some people picked up 10+ inches. Should be an interesting weekend thats for sure. Yes this area in the foothills and back to the mountains needs to be very watchful as this could be devastating. As we speak we currently have heavy heavy rain falling and have picked up well over an inch already tonight. Not going to be a good 3-5 days here in WNC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevDodd Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Is there anything to suggest this thing is capable of becoming a cat 5 hurricane ? Has a cat 5 hurricane ever made landfall in NC ? No Cat 5 in recorded history for the North Carolina coast. I'll defer to the physics folks as to the potential of one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 heck of a storm right now, beautiful. Slightly unbalanced on the left side! But decent looking storm! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 honestly if i was you i'd start getting nervous a little by now since even south carolina is now in the game for a possible landfall at this point..which the jma of all models had progged the last 2 runs interestingly enough. it's crazy how far west the models keep trending...and this is with the sampling data. i'm sure nc is still the likely area but each run just keeps trending further. A SC hit may end up worse for NC as we'd be on the N side of the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 No Cat 5 in recorded history for the North Carolina coast. I'll defer to the physics folks as to the potential of one. that's pretty incredible that in all of recorded history there hasn't been a single cat 5 landfall in NC. I guess that just goes to show how rare cat 5's are Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted October 1, 2015 Author Share Posted October 1, 2015 He's still got time, another 24 hours or so, to come around ... or to look like a genius if the Euro holds. How folks predict the weekend will be remembered, not what was said Wednesday. Or Tuesday, when Maze kept telling viewers that "none of our upcoming weather will have anything to do with Joaquin. It won't be anywhere near North Carolina." Technically, Maze is correct. The upcoming weather (wed, thur, fri) is not related to Juaquin. Should that come this way, it will only add insult to injury that the ULL is starting to show this evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sarcean Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 that's pretty incredible that in all of recorded history there hasn't been a single cat 5 landfall in NC. I guess that just goes to show how rare cat 5's are Only 3 Cat 5 have ever made landfall in the US iirc Andrew, Camille, and "Labor Day" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Live video discussion on Joaquin with local mets: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rBJVfmHEHH4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Next few hours will tell the tale of the battle of the models. May the best model win! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Just curious and serious, what's DT saying? Normally people post his musings!?? He's hugging the Euro. Says its higher resolution is picking up something all the other models aren't. He just tweeted it out... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 He's hugging the Euro. Says its higher resolution is picking up something all the other models aren't. He just tweeted it out... HWRF is 3km and it has it slamming NC. His logic is flawed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Is there anything to suggest this thing is capable of becoming a cat 5 hurricane ? Has a cat 5 hurricane ever made landfall in NC ? No and no. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Live video discussion on Joaquin with local mets: Great discussion by Brad P. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hugo Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Is there anything to suggest this thing is capable of becoming a cat 5 hurricane ? Has a cat 5 hurricane ever made landfall in NC ? No, and I can't think of a 4 that has ever hit NC if you're a stickler for Hazel officially having made landfall about a mile south of the border. Was there any other 4? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMA1973 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Ive been watching WRAL weather for 2 days and they have been and still do have J curving OTS. I trust them over any of these "models". This thing is not coming inland unless its in N.E. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathernut85 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 He's hugging the Euro. Says its higher resolution is picking up something all the other models aren't. He just tweeted it out... No explanation for what exactly synoptically that is, just that the Euro sees "it" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted October 1, 2015 Author Share Posted October 1, 2015 Great discussion by Brad P. This is some good stuff from all the participants. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 He's hugging the Euro. Says its higher resolution is picking up something all the other models aren't. He just tweeted it out... More power to him and it then because right now the trend is not it's or his friend. I know many love the euro but it's not infallible. btw..wanted to pass along this link for those who don't have it. This page allows you to pretty much post all models/runs ...including clicking on points which show each models estimated strength, speed, pressure, and quite a few other options. uses google maps/earth. http://www.tropicalatlantic.com/modelsystem/data.cgi?basin=al&year=2015&storm=11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hugo Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Ive been watching WRAL weather for 2 days and they have been and still do have J curving OTS. I trust them over any of these "models". This thing is not coming inland unless its in N.E. They're about to sound the alarm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.