Stormsfury Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Joaquin had the dreaded pinhole eye and I'm not surprised that it strengthened, but wasn't expecting that kind of strengthening. This is a nightmare scenario in the now term for the Bahamas. A rapidly strengthening storm basically in their neighborhood. Joaquin will probably be cat 3 by daybreak or late tonight. Geez. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rjtysinger Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 So she's a 2 already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 so....lets see.....who's camp are yall in? EURO is EAST and no biggie (just the ULL) or GFS and GFS based products, ukie and CMC are WEST?I'm in the West camp! Just a bad feeling and I'm gonna most likely get 3-5, even from just the ULL , I don't want 10-20", honestly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AJF0602 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Ummm recon data is showing even higher winds now they made need to do a special advisory lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxduncan Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 so....lets see.....who's camp are yall in? EURO is EAST and no biggie (just the ULL) or GFS and GFS based products, ukie and CMC are WEST? GFS/Ukie/CMC 100% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Joaquin had the dreaded pinwheel eye and I'm not surprised that it strengthened, but wasn't expecting that kind of strengthening. This is a nightmare scenario in the now term for the Bahamas. A rapidly strengthening storm basically in their neighborhood. Joaquin will probably be cat 3 by daybreak or late tonight. Geez. Yeah totally cut off any dry air and looks to be trying to get the inner core built up, then we could see several ERC as it expands it wind field over the next 36 hrs this could get to be a pretty big cane..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormsfury Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Yeah totally cut off any dry air and looks to be trying to get the inner core built up, then we could see several ERC as it expands it wind field over the next 36 hrs this could get to be a pretty big cane..... Yep. This is a situation where megatons of dynamite was placed and the fuse about to be lit. Clearly wasn't expecting thia late season tropical beast in the making. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Yeah totally cut off any dry air and looks to be trying to get the inner core built up, then we could see several ERC as it expands it wind field over the next 36 hrs this could get to be a pretty big cane..... Already storm force winds out to 125 miles. That would be an enormous impact across the vast majority of NC and into Va in terms of downed trees and power outages. (Assuming a west track into NC) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted October 1, 2015 Author Share Posted October 1, 2015 so....lets see.....who's camp are yall in? EURO is EAST and no biggie (just the ULL) or GFS and GFS based products, ukie and CMC are WEST? For sanity's sake I want to say Euro... My gut says the blocking and ULL are going to force it to the coast. I'm glad I don't get paid to make potential life threatening forecasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Yep. This is a situation where megatons of dynamite was placed and the fuse about to be lit. Clearly wasn't expecting thia late season tropical beast in the making.This is over performing as bad as Erika, I think was a bust!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Just curious and serious, what's DT saying? Normally people post his musings!?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JacobNC Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 I'm okay with a drenching rain but I hope Raleigh stays pretty far to the west of the center so we get cooler temps and less wind. I don't want everything to close down for days here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 This is over performing as bad as Erika, I think was a bust!? nah there were lots of indicators that this thing was gonna go boom once it got to the Bahamas and the shear relaxed, the thing is well ventilated and has copious amounts of super warm ocean and really good tropical feeds to hook up too....then as it moves north the ULL cut off will give it a channel as well so this thing could be a well feed monster up till landfall and it has potential to be a major when it hits. I think it more likely its a high end Ct 2 or Cat 3 at landfall than a TS or weak Cat 1..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Starting to get scared. I honestly am praying for a fish. I cant go 2 hours without my laptop or phone, so this will test me in many ways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted October 1, 2015 Author Share Posted October 1, 2015 Just curious and serious, what's DT saying? Normally people post his musings!?? Surprisingly, nothing for the last 7 hours on FB, and nothing of substance on Twitter in 3 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Just curious and serious, what's DT saying? Normally people post his musings!?? Pretty much trying to just fix the ECMWF issues and make the public known about that, with his usual wisecracks of course. He hasn't posted in 7 hours, so... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AJF0602 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 With the recon data it looked like they measured a surface wind of 115mph that didn't seem too contaminated, I wonder if they are going to wait until 11pm to pull the trigger or do a special advisory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 This is a cat 3 already pressure wise. Winds will follow suite. The longer the plane hangs out there you'll see. Just saw 113 and it hadn't got to nw quad yet. Hwrf and gfdl are basically lock step with each other. Also the way this trough goes negative tilt is gonna vent it perfect not to mention the warm ssts. Tell you it's the perfect prog setting up to allow the storm to get maximum benefit conducive to writing a new chapter in history. Reminds of Hazel how it fester ed a little futher south then used a negative tilted trough and barcilonic environment to go to town in October of 54 I beleive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Going to be Starting a Teamviewer Meeting at 8:45 PM regarding the new information: m28-195-984 (Meeting ID), Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormsfury Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 This is over performing as bad as Erika, I think was a bust!? Must have read my mind. I was thinking about Joaquin and Erika as Erika was the little engine that couldn't and Joaquin just going ballistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 105 MPH and expected to get stronger. This really escalated quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AJF0602 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 I read best track updated to 100kt so we have a major, can anyone confirm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Cluster tightening up on early 0z runs... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormsfury Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 I read best track updated to 100kt so we have a major, can anyone confirm? Nothing official. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sctvman Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Almost all the tracks on that model map from about HHI to Cape Lookout. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 I read best track updated to 100kt so we have a major, can anyone confirm? Well that data was received... and it was not even in the NE-quad so you can assume, given that that is the strongest part of this Joaquin, the number will go up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormsfury Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Almost all the tracks on that model map from about HHI to Cape Lookout. Crazy nerve wracking. Main forum was said SHIPS initialized Joaquin at 100kts on the 00z. May see NHC go with Cat 3 by 11 pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
btownheel Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Southport, hard left over southern NC. Gonna ride that one all the way home. Unfortunately, that is gonna cream basically every major city in NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Plots continue the sw shift and RI is well underway. Stronger he gets the more he's gonna feel the trough and head poleward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Yep. This is a situation where megatons of dynamite was placed and the fuse about to be lit. Clearly wasn't expecting thia late season tropical beast in the making. honestly if i was you i'd start getting nervous a little by now since even south carolina is now in the game for a possible landfall at this point..which the jma of all models had progged the last 2 runs interestingly enough. it's crazy how far west the models keep trending...and this is with the sampling data. i'm sure nc is still the likely area but each run just keeps trending further. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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