rjtysinger Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Fishel is really holding on to the Euro. He says that he's not convinced it isn't wrong yet, considering its domination over the American model in recent years. I think this is a no win for the local mets. If they jump on the bandwagon of landfall now then it will miss. If they follow the euro it will make landfall. Still 5 days out and a lot of changes between now and then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 I think this is a no win for the local mets. If they jump on the bandwagon of landfall now then it will miss. If they follow the euro it will make landfall. Still 5 days out and a lot of changes between now and then. is it 5 days out still ? So that will mean Monday evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yotaman Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Seems most models are still thinking a left turn after landfall is gonna happen. This really complicates things for local mets because theres just so many possibilities how can you even begin to prepare? Tell everyone to be ready for flooding rains and high winds? If we are on the SW side of the circ then i'm not confident at all about what conditions we might see. We went through the southwestern eye with isabel, we cleared out and even saw the hurricane hunter plane and we only had gusts to low 50's while 35 miles north had gusts well into the 90's I was on the south side of Isabel and we had about rain and maybe winds up into the 30's. If we get this one, I am hoping for the same. As saturated as the soil is, trees will come down in big numbers if this comes in to our south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 I think this is a no win for the local mets. If they jump on the bandwagon of landfall now then it will miss. If they follow the euro it will make landfall. Still 5 days out and a lot of changes between now and then. It's actually three days out. I just think it is better to be safe than sorry. Show the people what the models show, and that the Euro is the only one showing it go out to sea. I wouldn't mention a thing about what is right or wrong now. Just show everyone what the models are showing and to prepare for the worst. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rjtysinger Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 is it 5 days out still ? So that will mean Monday evening. Sorry 4 days, the homegrown ones seem the hardest to pinpoint. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yotaman Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 18z HWRF, shifted south from it's previous run... Looks like a worst case scenario for us. I sure hope this doesn't pan out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Looks like a worst case scenario for us. I sure hope this doesn't pan out. Looks fun. Great character building experience without power for weeks.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 I'm not in your neck of the woods - so last intrusion from a Florida boy -- This is not a model/X-Box game ---- get ready and have your supplies; then stay safe and take care; someone looks to get maybe pounded -- it might be you when the models suggest otherwise. Best to all of you all. Hope it does hook right and go out to sea - then your supplies will be good come January when .... Phil Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Its going to get lonely in this forum considering ill probably be the only one who has power for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Its going to get lonely in this forum considering ill probably be the only one who has power for a while. HO LE F@!R$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Can we tell from the model runs how strong the hurricane might be when it shows them making landfall? I know the pressure is an indicator, but can we get an idea of the wind speed? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Can we tell from the model runs how strong the hurricane might be when it shows them making landfall? I know the pressure is an indicator, but can we get an idea of the wind speed? Yea, would have to write a script for it. Some sites have it like weatherbell..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NRVwxfan. Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 HO LE F@!R$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Can we tell from the model runs how strong the hurricane might be when it shows them making landfall? I know the pressure is an indicator, but can we get an idea of the wind speed? I wouldn't worry about that right now as intensity is tough to forecast, it really depends on how much shear, dry air etc it has to deal with I think strong Cat 1 or Cat 2 is a good assumption at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AJF0602 Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 I'm a weather enthusiast so I get excited for interesting weather but even that HWRF makes me nervous, that is literally right over my house here in Jville lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormsfury Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 I wouldn't worry about that right now as intensity is tough to forecast, it really depends on how much shear, dry air etc it has to deal with I think strong Cat 1 or Cat 2 is a good assumption at this point. The upper winds will probably go southeasterly at that point but the ULL could easily force strong divergence and upper dynamics over it and cause a hybrid situation. Either way, this situation ia looking dire in terma of extreme rainfalls and potentially destructive winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yotaman Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Looks fun. Great character building experience without power for weeks.... yeah, I lost power for 4 days due to Irene. I do not want to go thru that again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hugo Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 The upper winds will probably go southeasterly at that point but the ULL could easily force strong divergence and upper dynamics over it and cause a hybrid situation. Either way, this situation ia looking dire in terma of extreme rainfalls and potentially destructive winds. One thing the media hasn't been mentioning is how much the rain ahead of the storm will increase tree damage. Floyd only gave us TS winds, but it looked like a bomb went off the morning after thanks to 10" of rain in advance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Folks, if you think you are will be in the path, if you have had power issues with even the most basic storm , book a hotel NOW for Sunday thru Friday. Book it now, right now, before the hotels institute a no cancel policy. Best case scenario you call them Saturday AM and cancel. Use the info from this site to your advantage! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goldman75 Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 So if a plane went in at 7:30 this evening, what's the typical eta to have the data released as far as the wind speed goes? The 11pm update most likely? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 So if a plane went in at 7:30 this evening, what's the typical eta to have the data released as far as the wind speed goes? The 11pm update most likely? The data is released almost real time http://tropicalatlantic.com/recon/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 So if a plane went in at 7:30 this evening, what's the typical eta to have the data released as far as the wind speed goes? The 11pm update most likely? you can watch it live actually on a number of different sources.......any major changes would be in the 8pm update but its not bombing or anything so they will wait to make any changes at 11 IMO. Well I may have been wrong latest info suggest some deepening 700mb extrap pressure is 949.9mb, 98kt flight level/88kt SFMR NW quad, 102kt SFMR SE quad (not to peak Flight level winds in SE quad yet) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Folks, if you think you are will be in the path, if you have had power issues with even the most basic storm , book a hotel NOW for Sunday thru Friday. Book it now, right now, before the hotels institute a no cancel policy. Best case scenario you call them Saturday AM and cancel. Use the info from this site to your advantage! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JQPublic Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 TWC just reported 105mph winds and pressure at 954mb! 800pm update Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted October 1, 2015 Author Share Posted October 1, 2015 800 PM EDT WED SEP 30 2015 ...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS JOAQUIN STRONGER... SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.0N 73.0W ABOUT 95 MI...150 KM E OF SAN SALVADOR BAHAMAS ABOUT 80 MI...125 KM NE OF SAMANA CAYS BAHAMAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...SW OR 225 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...954 MB...28.17 INCHES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goldman75 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Thank you two for the info my wife hates it when I become obsessed with tracking haha! Now that I can see real time info from the planes, I'll tell her to thank y'all. I work night shift in Brunswick county NC hospital on the weekends so I'm hoping for a night off because of the storm team having to work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gwlee7 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 This is making me nervous. We got cut off from everywhere for days during Floyd ou in northern Edgecombe County. Although I live in Rocky Mount now, it was hammered too. Flooding is no joke. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 TWC just reported 105mph winds and pressure at 954mb! 800pm updateSo the two or three models showing a more easterly track, had a much weaker storm for tomorrow than we already have now!? So can we throw those out?? Since those models were way off in intensity, will they be off on the forecast track? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Wow its almost a major already.. Think it may touch Cat 4 before weakening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 so....lets see.....who's camp are yall in? EURO is EAST and no biggie (just the ULL) or GFS and GFS based products, ukie and CMC are WEST? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.