downeastnc Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 The Euro and the other model camps are all pretty close for the first 24 hrs or so its after it begins to move north again that they differ. I would expect some wavering on the other models as the strength of the ULL and high vary run to run but they should begin to have smaller adjustments as they get a handle on the complex nature of the setup..... One thing to keep in mind is that the north and east sides on storms that landfall in this setup are usually pretty darn bad ( think Hugo and Fran) over a larger than normal area due to the pressure gradient with the blocking high, and in this case a rather strong blocking high so I suspect if the GFS track where to happen as ran on the 12Z you would see gust to hurricane force or better for most of the central and eastern half of NC assuming it comes in around 85-100knts and it hits between ILM and Lookout moving NW....or even WNW like the last GFS ran showed ( 18Z going now ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 A few models do a slow loop over NC. That would not be good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Euro is out to lunch guys, come on, let it go. This is not going out to sea with the blocking setting up over Canada and the NW atlantic. TIme to start figuring out where this will hit land. I think the cone is from far southern VA to northern SC on a WNW heading. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
btownheel Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Euro is out to lunch guys, come on, let it go. This is not going out to sea with the blocking setting up over Canada and the NW atlantic. TIme to start figuring out where this will hit land. I think the cone is from far southern VA to northern SC on a WNW heading. ouch....the bad boy comes in around ILM as a Cat 3 tracking WNW everything from Fayette-Nam to G-Vegas to RDU to the Triad and down to Charlotte is gonna get plastered.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Again, a slight shift of the ULL south/stronger, thus QPF max will be sw of GSP now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Euro is out to lunch guys, come on, let it go. This is not going out to sea with the blocking setting up over Canada and the NW atlantic. TIme to start figuring out where this will hit land. I think the cone is from far southern VA to northern SC on a WNW heading. Yep sure looks like its gonna be Fran part duex.........maybe not as strong as Fran but a ass kicker for a lot of NC regardless....18Z out to 48 identical to 12Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
btownheel Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Yep sure looks like its gonna be Fran part duex.........maybe not as strong as Fran but a ass kicker for a lot of NC regardless....18Z out to 48 identical to 12Z I'm not so sure it won't make it to Fran country....there is a LOT of very warm water between the NC Coast and Joaquin with good conditions for intensification... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 18z landfall at 87 just south of HAT, so it bumped north as Joaquin was east of it's 12z position after 36 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 18z landfall at 87 just south of HAT, so it bumped north as Joaquin was east of it's 12z position after 36 hours. What site are you on? Tidbits and NCEP not out that far yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 What site are you on? Tidbits and NCEP not out that far yet AmericanWx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Well the fact it didnt go any further south may be a indicator that NC is indeed goin to take the landfall, there will be wobbles every run but Myrtle Beach to VA Beach seems to be where all the models are homing in ( well except the Euro) and we are almost inside 3 days. It can of course shift but unlike other setups where we have a recurving a recurving setup ( Bertha, Fran, Floyd, Irene, Bonnie etc) this setup will prevent that and its more a matter of how far up the coast it gets before hooking left ( Hugo, Fran, Isabel). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mjwise Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 18Z GFS landfalls in outer banks at 5AM sunday at 977mb, and by 5PM it's centered over, well, me, basically. Then it sits tight and loops a bit in Virginia for about 24 hours. Yuck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yotaman Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Looks like a near definite NC/Va landfall. With the loop the models showing, rainfall is going to be epic as will the flooding that will follow. Feel real bad for those who live in flood prone areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Supercane Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Well the fact it didnt go any further south may be a indicator that NC is indeed goin to take the landfall, there will be wobbles every run but Myrtle Beach to VA Beach seems to be where all the models are homing in ( well except the Euro) and we are almost inside 3 days. It can of course shift but unlike other setups where we have a recurving a recurving setup ( Bertha, Fran, Floyd, Irene, Bonnie etc) this setup will prevent that and its more a matter of how far up the coast it gets before hooking left ( Hugo, Fran, Isabel). The ULL to the SW and the big high to the north are certainly reminiscent of those classic Carolina hurricanes that get far inland (Hazel, Hugo, Fran, Isabel). The big difference with Joaquin and those storms is that it's forecast to move slowly after landfall (if it makes landfall and doesn't catch the mid-Atlantic trough as the Euro indicates). One slow tracker more like Joaquin was Dennis 1999, although that was only an upper-end TS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 18z GFS had further north landfall because Joaquin escaped to the east a hair between hours 60-72, not sure if it was due to ULL being a little slower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 18z GFS had further north landfall because Joaquin escaped to the east a hair between hours 60-72, not sure if it was due to ULL being a little slower. Those are the kind of nuances that are going to be hard to nail down even 24 hrs out so I expect to see the models float around with landfall location but I think the big long moves are done and we will see it move back and forth over NC southern VA and maybe even N SC the next couple of days. Hopefully its Cat 2 or less I like a cane but I got my limits and Fran was a pretty wild ride and I am not sure I want to do that again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yotaman Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Any one wish to give predictions on when watches and warnings will go up? I think by tomorrow night watches will go up with warnings by Friday afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Really looks like somewhere between Myrtle Beach and Virginia Beach will get hit. The NHC is starting to move the track further west, even with the Euro solution. This looks like it could be really bad, too. I saw a few people mention Fran. If I remember correctly, it intensified quickly before it made landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 From Fla: where ever it goes - good luck ---- AND please (from been there done that) ---- prepare NOW! (a 'cane isn't Sunday comics). Best to all ya'all. Phil Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 18z Navgem takes it to the NC/SC border, consistent with that track now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovingGulfLows Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 If NAVGeM ends up being correct(I don't think it will be), that puts the Atlanta area in an axis of heavy rain and we don't need rain right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 If NAVGeM ends up being correct(I don't think it will be), that puts the Atlanta area in an axis of heavy rain and we don't need rain right now. its not like atlanta has been THAT wet lately. Hartsfield Jackson was nearly 1/2" below normal for September. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxduncan Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Canadian Model Hours 84-90 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 18z GEFS is a tick further south than the Op and it's earlier ensemble runs. Looks like spread is shrinking too... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Seems most models are still thinking a left turn after landfall is gonna happen. This really complicates things for local mets because theres just so many possibilities how can you even begin to prepare? Tell everyone to be ready for flooding rains and high winds? If we are on the SW side of the circ then i'm not confident at all about what conditions we might see. We went through the southwestern eye with isabel, we cleared out and even saw the hurricane hunter plane and we only had gusts to low 50's while 35 miles north had gusts well into the 90's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Fishel is really holding on to the Euro. He says that he's not convinced it isn't wrong yet, considering its domination over the American model in recent years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Fishel is really holding on to the Euro. He says that he's not convinced it isn't wrong yet, considering its domination over the American model in recent years. Not shocking, ever since Dec 2000 he has always taken the least impacting solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Fishel is really holding on to the Euro. He says that he's not convinced it isn't wrong yet, considering its domination over the American model in recent years. It might end up being right, but sure is risky to take those odds when it is the only one showing it going out to sea. It is not perfect, either. I would rather err on the side of caution and it end up being wrong and going out to sea than say the Euro is right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Fishel is really holding on to the Euro. He says that he's not convinced it isn't wrong yet, considering its domination over the American model in recent years. I agree with him and tons of others do too. The NHC's track even gives it credit. The Euro is a good model and it's ensembles are mostly saying the same thing as the operational. Credit definitely has to be given to it. We are going to have a lot more data into the 00z suite tonight on our American models. Lets see if they even hint at a more East track. If they do, Euro very well could score big. We are talking 51 ensemble members basically agreeing with their operational... maybe a few not on board.. But of course, tonight's 00z Euro run could come way more West and give up the fight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 18z HWRF, shifted south from it's previous run... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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