NCSNOW Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 From an old friend: JMA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Is she heading south or doing a loop? Looks like a SW " wobble", but that eye is looking impressive! Any bets on 5 pm adv having it as a cat 2? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 It's looks to me that Joaquin had moved due south over the past few frames with very little westward movement. Could be a slight wobble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfman23601 Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Is she heading south or doing a loop? Heading SSE toward Hispanola /s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 We have a potentially serious situation developing here. Let's keep on topic and refrain from any personal attacks. I will have a quick trigger finger as we get closer to the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Is she heading south or doing a loop? General motion is definitely to the SW. Seems like that's not good, if you're hoping for an EC hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Recon flight scheduled for 7/30 pm tonight! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Didn't the euro have it going south prior to going ots? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
airmarci Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 My 2 cents: Regardless of Joaquin's track, the dynamics are quite favorable for extreme precipitation over parts of the southeast. Phase tilt of the upper-level trough and low-level thermodynamics are highly conducive for baroclinic development with strong isentropic ascent and anomalously high PW values. Hence the high QPF values in the Euro despite the OTS solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormyClearweather Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Didn't the euro have it going south prior to going ots? yes, Va beach landfall 9/28 12z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NRVwxfan. Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 We have a potentially serious situation developing here. Let's keep on topic and refrain from any personal attacks. I will have a quick trigger finger as we get closer to the event. Going into storm mode soon? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Significant move west by 18z NAM vs. 12z run. EE rule could be breaking down .... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Through the Midlands, the GFS was pretty dry compared to the Euro. Areas of 15 inches and more per Euro as the GFS had around 6 or so for a big portion. Take that for what it's worth.. but either way the Midlands are now in play for a good bit of rain regardless if this thing makes landfall. This wasn't exactly the case before the 00z model suite last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 well I wake up and see that models continue the SW trend and the Euro is still all by itself....the GFS would be a really bad day for NC especiallly if we are dealing with a high end Cat 2 or Cat 3.....very Fran like gonna be a rough weekend regardless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thrasher Fan Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Recon flight scheduled for 7/30 pm tonight! Bird in the air. Alex Lamers @AlexJLamers 2m2 minutes ago 4:45 PM EDT - AF Reserve Hurricane Hunters (C130) has left Keesler AFB and is en route to #Joaquin for in-storm recon data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevDodd Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 I see the NAM continues strong blocking to the north, leaving Joaquin nowhere to go but inland. OOC, how is the Euro dealing with the blocking to the north? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 I see the NAM continues strong blocking to the north, leaving Joaquin nowhere to go but inland. OOC, how is the Euro dealing with the blocking to the north? Philippe Papin @pppapin 1h1 hour ago @ryanhanrahan It is the mid/upper level trough doing the major steering. The weak TC produced by #ECMWF is negligible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 I see the NAM continues strong blocking to the north, leaving Joaquin nowhere to go but inland. OOC, how is the Euro dealing with the blocking to the north?Looks like the Euro is taking it directly into the ridge off the east coast! That can't happen? Kind of like a low running into a strong wedge in the winter?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxduncan Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 New Track/Update 5:00PM EST Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevDodd Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 New Track/Update 5:00PM EST Hmmm: First time the cone has included Wilmington... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 NHC looks to be bailing on the Euro, has landfall over northern OBX if the 18Z holds serve expect that landfall to shift further down the coast towards Lookout or even ILM......I think its time for folks in NC to begin to seriously plan for a possible long duration power loss event....and for those living in low lying areas that typically wouldn't be flood prone during normal events need to find out how things where there during Floyd because if the Cape Fear/Neuse/Tar and Roanoke River basins get widespread 10" rainfall amounts we will most likely see a 100-500 yr flooding event on these rivers and the creeks that feed them. You got 3 days and the weather will be bad early since the PRE event will hinder preparations.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Guy from NHC saying they are not discounting the Euro, but leaning heavily on all the other models that are showing a landfall- Dr MCNab, on TWC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 We have a potentially serious situation developing here. Let's keep on topic and refrain from any personal attacks. I will have a quick trigger finger as we get closer to the event. Through the Midlands, the GFS was pretty dry compared to the Euro. Areas of 15 inches and more per Euro as the GFS had around 6 or so for a big portion. Take that for what it's worth.. but either way the Midlands are now in play for a good bit of rain regardless if this thing makes landfall. This wasn't exactly the case before the 00z model suite last night. I sure hope so I enjoyed the 4" mby had in the bucket last week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 There has been little change in the organization of Joaquin duringthe past several hours. While the hurricane continues to producecloud tops colder than -80C in the eyewall, the eye has not becomebetter defined since the last advisory. Satellite intensityestimates are 77 kt from both TAFB and SAB, so the advisoryintensity is now 75 kt. Uh... what? We just saw a clear eye a bit ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxduncan Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Also thought I would post this up from Brad's twitter post and from WPC: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rjtysinger Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 New Track/Update 5:00PM EST I don't like that. I have a Regional Bass tournament on the Potomac next week. I'm hoping for a swing to the right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NRVwxfan. Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Through the Midlands, the GFS was pretty dry compared to the Euro. Areas of 15 inches and more per Euro as the GFS had around 6 or so for a big portion. Take that for what it's worth.. but either way the Midlands are now in play for a good bit of rain regardless if this thing makes landfall. This wasn't exactly the case before the 00z model suite last night. For what its worth, the Euro was way better with last weeks heavy rain event than the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncforecaster89 Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 I'll go on record to say that I'm hoping for a NC hurricane landfall since I do free-lance storm videography. That said, I'm most concerned about the continued southerly component in the real-time motion and its long-range effect on Joaquin's eventual track. That, combined with the fact that the EURO has been most consistent in forecasting the more southward motion into the Bahamas, for the past couple of days...is worrisome for those hoping for the same. OTH, the relatively strong consensus for an EC landfall and a continued westward shift amongst the other models gives one hope, in that regard. In such a complex atmospheric and synoptic environment that is yet to play out, this is truly one of the most challenging forecasts scenarios I've ever seen-relative to TC forecasting. Hopefully, the ingestion of the aforementioned upper-air data into the models will provide more clarity with the 00z model runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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