packbacker Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 While I agree, the Euros ensembles are far from agreeing with the op. At least the 0z ensembles. Curious to see how the 12z ensembles look. The individual members of the 0z EPS did have several members that hit the SE coast but just as many, if not more were OTS. Plus the Op has to count for more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 And tomorrow, and Friday and Sunday and Monday and Tuesday. Have fun.... But I love the sun this time of year. I am looking out my window at work. Guess I should say goodbye for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 The Op Euro rarely, if ever, has busted like this inside 60-72 hours. That's where the major differences are between models. The CMC/GFS bust all the time at 72 hours. Another black eye for the GFS coming up... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NRVwxfan. Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 One more shift south and central NC will be in the 2-4" range, more of a "meh" type event...keep the shifts coming. 15 to 20+inches of rain. Im gonna need a bigger boat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 The Op Euro rarely, if ever, has busted like this inside 60-72 hours. That's where the major differences are between models. The CMC/GFS bust all the time at 72 hours. Another black eye for the GFS coming up... The CMC/GFS/UKMET/NAVGEM/HWRF/GFDL would all have to bust badly for the Euro to be right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 The Op Euro rarely, if ever, has busted like this inside 60-72 hours. That's where the major differences are between models. The CMC/GFS bust all the time at 72 hours. Another black eye for the GFS coming up... agree, when its climo vs the worst case scenario i've learned to go with climo every time. euro has been too consistent to throw it out as an outlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Either way it seems we get a whole bunch of flooding rain, or less flooding but with wind and downed trees. Yep. Everyone, including the media, will be more focused on the winds but it's going to be the rain that could be the main headline when it's all said it done. So what's the precedence for this type of model spread on a hurricane (Euro -- Bermuda; rest of the models -- N.C.) in the 3-4 day range. How the heck do you warn for something like this if you are NHC? yeah..i wouldn't want to be them. Talk about high bust potential. That said, the euro is a clear outlier. So if it's right it would be quite the coup. However, it's hard to ignore all the trends of a further south upper low and landfall/westward movement afterwards on the rest of the modeling. One more shift south and central NC will be in the 2-4" range, more of a "meh" type event...keep the shifts coming. 20 inches in the upstate..2 inches here lol. Gsp is going to have a fun time trying to pin this down too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 The Euro aint what it used to be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mjwise Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 yeah..i wouldn't want to be them. Talk about high bust potential. That said, the euro is a clear outlier. So if it's right it would be quite the coup. However, it's hard to ignore all the trends of a further south upper low and landfall/westward movement afterwards on the rest of the modeling. Worst part is splitting the baby like they have been so far yields a solution (an east coast hugger or a new england strike) that now no model is showing and will yield inefficient, unnecessary, or incorrect preparation actions. I really hope they don't let another forecast cycle go by trying to do that. Either the king will reign or it won't... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 The Op Euro rarely, if ever, has busted like this inside 60-72 hours. That's where the major differences are between models. The CMC/GFS bust all the time at 72 hours. Another black eye for the GFS coming up... Plus, i'm not sure if you have noticed but it's not just the gfs showing landfall. I wouldn't say that. We've all seen the euro, just like every other model, bust pretty badly inside 72 hours, including tropical systems. And the trend west continues or at least maintained on the 18z runs. I believe this run or the 0z run is supposed to have the sampling data from earlier today. Worst part is splitting the baby like they have been so far yields a solution (an east coast hugger or a new england strike) that now no model is showing and will yield inefficient, unnecessary, or incorrect preparation actions. I really hope they don't let another forecast cycle go by trying to do that. Either the king will reign or it won't... Yeah i think they will make a significant westward shift with the 5pm forecast. I have a hard time believing they won't. For those on the carolina coast, they really need to be made aware at this point of the potential and allow them to start getting prepared. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 If there's a CAD boundary,it makes sense that's where the heaviest precip will set up early on in my opinion. Seeing the heaviest precip tick SW makes sense to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Plus, i'm not sure if you have noticed but it's not just the gfs showing landfall. I wouldn't say that. We've all seen the euro, just like every other model, bust pretty badly inside 72 hours, including tropical systems. And the trend west continues or at least maintained on the 18z runs. I believe this run is supposed to have the sampling data from earlier today. No doubt the Euro is king. But to have so many in the other camp, and trending further from the Euro solution. Most, if not all of the other models are moving further south and west away from the Euro. IMO, if it were correct we would see at least a small movement to the Euro. Edit: FWIW I hope the Euro is correct. Looks to be a very dangerous storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 There seems to be some confusion on this thread. The QPF on the Euro is not associated with Hurricane Joaquin. It's from the trough that is setup and the ULL. Due to those two features GSP "jackpots" (flooding aint jackpotting in my book)...vs the GFS which crushes eastern NC due to Joaquin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 The scary thing is that the CMC with it's perfect storm setup I guess could be correct. If that happens we would be looking at a full own disastrous flooding in major cities for NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 All this talk about Euro verse the World: What about the model experts use, The Nam has spoken. Theres OTS, wide Right e.t.c But the Nam has introduced HARD RIGHT. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 All this talk about Euro verse the World: What about the model experts use, The Nam has spoken. Theres OTS, wide Right e.t.c But the Nam has introduced HARD RIGHT. LOL NAM also shows Joaquin as a weak tropical storm in 12 hours... I think you can toss it for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NRVwxfan. Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Looks like his eye is beginning to open. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 The Euro aint what it used to be. Neither am I but I would give it the edge on it's ability to model the key large scale steering features...to be determined though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Neither am I but I would give it the edge on it's ability to model the key large scale steering features...to be determined though. Lol...you're in your prime. They downgraded the Euro a year or two ago when they made the upgrade. But yeah, if it's not in the camp you want, accumulated historical evidence suggests that a degree of nervousness is warranted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Neither am I but I would give it the edge on it's ability to model the key large scale steering features...to be determined though. Lol...you're in your prime. They downgraded the Euro a year or two ago when they made the upgrade. But yeah, if it's not in the camp you want, accumulated historical evidence suggests that a degree of nervousness is warranted. LOL...I just can't fathom the Euro being this wrong. It's seeing something the others don't. I think you see the other models start caving tonight. NHC is probably putting a few back right now trying to figure out what to do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormyClearweather Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 This is a good read, but I'm mostly posting it for that first sentence: SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/ AS OF 230 PM WEDNESDAY...IN SITUATIONS LIKE THIS...THE READER IS CAUTIONED TO NOT FOCUS ON ANY ONE PARTICULAR MODEL SOLUTION... ESPECIALLY OUT BEYOND 48H TO 72H. THAT BEING SAID...SOME COMPELLING EVIDENCE CONTINUES TO MOUNT WITH REGARD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR A HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT LATE THIS WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND. THE SCENARIO INVOLVES A COMPLEX INTERACTION BETWEEN A DYNAMIC UPPER LOW THAT RECEIVES A SIGNIFICANT INFUSION OF TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM JOAQUIN. WHAT IS MOST TROUBLING IS THAT THE 12Z OPERATIONAL GFS AND ECMWF ARE NEARLY IN LOCK STEP THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...WHICH POINTS TO AN INCREASE IN CONFIDENCE ON THE FRONT END OF THE EVENT AS IT STARTS TO UNFOLD THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. MID/UPPER FORCING WILL REMAIN WEAK INITIALLY AS THE UPPER LOW DRIFTS SWD ACROSS AL TO THE GULF COAST... BUT LOW LEVEL FORCING CHIEFLY IN THE FORM OF MOIST ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THRU THE PERIOD. THIS SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE THE PRECIP PROBABILITY WHILE KEEPING THE PRECIP AMTS RELATIVELY MODEST. THUS...THE TREND IS UPWARD WITH A LIKELY POP ACROSS THE WHOLE FCST AREA AND INCREASING TO CATEGORICAL FRIDAY WHERE UPGLIDE IMPROVES NEAR THE MTNS/BLUE RIDGE...AND THE WRN NC PIEDMONT. TEMPS WERE KEPT QUITE COOL...WELL BELOW GUIDANCE. IT IS FROM THAT POINT ONWARD...00Z SATURDAY...THAT THE WHEELS MAY FLY OFF IN DIFFERENT DIRECTIONS. THE OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE DIVERGES SIGNIFICANTLY AND RAPIDLY...AND THE ENSEMBLE SPREAD WIDENS QUICKLY. THE RECENT MODEL RUNS SHOW EVEN MORE OF A DIFFERENCE IN OUTCOME BY SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE TRACK OF JOAQUIN. AS A RESULT...CONFIDENCE PLUMMETS TOWARD AN ALL TIME LOW...BUT KEEP IN MIND WE ARE DEALING WITH AN EVENT THAT IS MORE THAN 72H OUT. THERE MIGHT BE A TENDENCY TO PAY TOO MUCH ATTENTION TO THE OPERATIONAL GFS WITH ITS TRACK OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE INLAND...EVENTUALLY LOOPING OVER THE CAROLINA PIEDMONT OVER THE WEEKEND. IT WOULD BE WISE TO DOWNPLAY THIS IN FAVOR OF THE OFFICIAL NHC TRACK FOR THE TIME BEING. IN THAT SCENARIO...WE WILL STILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...WITH ITS ATTENDANT DEFORMATION AND FRONTOGENESIS WRAPPING AROUND/PIVOTING ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. THIS WOULD BE VERY UNUSUAL...AS ORDINARILY THE WESTERN CAROLINAS STAY DRY WHEN A TROPICAL CYCLONE PASSES NWD E OF CAPE HATTERAS. WILL OPT FOR A COURSE OF LEAST REGRET...WHICH IS TO RAISE PRECIP CHANCES INTO THE CATEGORICAL RANGE E TO W FRIDAY NIGHT AND KEEP THE VERY HIGH POP THROUGH SATURDAY. PROBABILITIES DROP STEADILY AFTERWARD AS A MEASURE OF UNCERTAINTY ON THE BACK END WITH HOW QUICKLY THE UPPER SYSTEM MOVES E AND N AND WHERE JOAQUIN GOES. PRECIP AMTS COULD BE VERY HIGH IN THIS SCENARIO...WHICH COULD LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT FLOODING IN SOME AREAS. THIS WOULD BE ESPECIALLY TRUE ACROSS AREAS WHERE SOIL MOISTURE AND STREAM FLOW REMAINS HIGH FROM RECENT RAINFALL. HAVE FOLLOWED WPC WITH THE QPF. IF THIS VERIFIES...WE WILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH FLOODING...AND AN INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR SLOPE FAILURES AND DEBRIS FLOWS OVER THE NC MTNS. FORTUNATELY...AT THIS TIME...WE ARE LOOKING AT A 4TH PERIOD ONSET FOR THE HEAVY PRECIP...SO WE DO NOT NEED TO ENTERTAIN ANY WATCHES YET. EXPECT MANY CHANGES TO THIS LOW CONFIDENCE FCST. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 I liked this part, too. IT IS FROM THAT POINT ONWARD...00Z SATURDAY...THAT THE WHEELS MAY FLY OFF IN DIFFERENT DIRECTIONS. THE OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE DIVERGES SIGNIFICANTLY AND RAPIDLY...AND THE ENSEMBLE SPREAD WIDENS QUICKLY. THE RECENT MODEL RUNS SHOW EVEN MORE OF A DIFFERENCE IN OUTCOME BY SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE TRACK OF JOAQUIN. AS A RESULT...CONFIDENCE PLUMMETS TOWARD AN ALL TIME LOW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 If anything the EPS went more to the OTS solution. More members are now OTS, but still has members that hit the SE coast. Edit: Looking more closely at the members, for those rooting for a hurricane, the members that don't make landfall are south of HAT, some into central SC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 If anything the EPS went more to the OTS solution. More members are now OTS, but still has members that hit the SE coast. Euro versus the rest of the model world. So much at stake and serious ramifications based on which camp is correct. I just can't imagine what eastern NC will look like next week if we do get a widespread hurricane force wind event along with a foot of rain. The beaches are already battered but they will be beaten down if he comes ashore with 20ft waves. Thousands of trees down from saturated soils from TS and hurricane force winds and creeks and rivers bursting their banks. It seems to unreal to really be on the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
btownheel Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 If anything the EPS went more to the OTS solution. More members are now OTS, but still has members that hit the SE coast. Edit: Looking more closely at the members, for those rooting for a hurricane, the members that don't make landfall are south of HAT, some into central SC. I respect the power of a good jinx man....well done Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sarcean Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Euro versus the rest of the model world. So much at stake and serious ramifications based on which camp is correct. I just can't imagine what eastern NC will look like next week if we do get a widespread hurricane force wind event along with a foot of rain. The beaches are already battered but they will be beaten down if he comes ashore with 20ft waves. Thousands of trees down from saturated soils from TS and hurricane force winds and creeks and rivers bursting their banks. It seems to unreal to really be on the table. Not to mention its already rained for nearly a week straight in NC...it will not be pretty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rjtysinger Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Not to mention its already rained for nearly a week straight in NC...it will not be pretty. That's what made Fran so bad. Think we had a week or so of heavy rain the end of August in 96. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 I liked this part, too. IT IS FROM THAT POINT ONWARD...00Z SATURDAY...THAT THE WHEELS MAY FLY OFF IN DIFFERENT DIRECTIONS. THE OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE DIVERGES SIGNIFICANTLY AND RAPIDLY...AND THE ENSEMBLE SPREAD WIDENS QUICKLY. THE RECENT MODEL RUNS SHOW EVEN MORE OF A DIFFERENCE IN OUTCOME BY SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE TRACK OF JOAQUIN. AS A RESULT...CONFIDENCE PLUMMETS TOWARD AN ALL TIME LOW. They should put that sentence in every discussion involving snow or ice, for eternity! Looks like Joaquin is getting an eye and about to get a very concentric eye! Whether it makes landfall or not , Cat 4 looks like a real possibility, as it's environment becomes more conducive for strengthening ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Is she heading south or doing a loop? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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