LakeEffectKing Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 This is where NHC "splitting the difference" doesn't seem to really work, does it? I mean, either Joaquin is captured or not. There isn't really a "semi-capture" scenario, is there? Pretty much....the scenario is akin to trying to roll a ball along a ridge line...either it falls to one side or the other....and the chance of "riding the ridge line" is very small.. ...that said...we are in model land....so the depictions, as such, of a sensitive setup, could change (orientation or strength of trough, no Ida interaction, major reduction of the amplitude of the blocking pattern, etc.)...and make this less of a "ball riding the ridge" scenario Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goldman75 Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Pretty much....the scenario is akin to trying to roll a ball along a ridge line...either it falls to one side or the other....and the chance of "riding the ridge line" is very small It's like the price is right plinko of hurricanes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Euro sticking to it's OTS plan through 84....this is the model I would be riding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Either all the other models are going to have egg on there faces or the Euro is still king. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Euro sticking to it's OTS plan through 84....this is the model I would be riding. Riding or hoping for? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Euro sticking to it's OTS plan through 84....this is the model I would be riding. Hopefully everyone will be riding this one, unless they want utter destruction Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 12z ECMWF appears to be do what Joe Bastardi alluded to mid morning today. Stalls Joaquin to the SW of where it is now. The upper low now to the NNW never picks it up and brings it inland. Then a path for Joaquin is opened up to the NE and it scoots out to see NE from the Bahamas. Is it right? I don't know. Only a hunch: 65% chance that it is right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Riding or hoping for? Both! Jackpot QPF this run is in GSP, 10+" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NRVwxfan. Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Euro sticking to it's OTS plan through 84....this is the model I would be riding. Why? Just curious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 12z ECMWF appears to be do what Joe Bastardi alluded to mid morning today. Stalls Joaquin to the SW of where it is now. The upper low now to the NNW never picks it up and brings it inland. Then a path for Joaquin is opened up to the NE and it scoots out to see NE from the Bahamas. Is it right? I don't know. Only a hunch: 65% chance that it is right. It's probably right, Euro is the best for a reason. We (NC) tend to just big winter storms and catastrophic hurricanes, we have just been lucky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Usually if one model is totally the opposite of all the other models, isn't it an outlier? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Cat 3/4's don't usually stall. Not buying Euro solution "assuming" a very strong Joaquin is present. If anything I could see this continuing SW and creeping onshore in GA/SC as some others have hinted at. On to the next model run...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Why? Just curious. It's the best model and it hasn't wavered the past few runs, the other models have been bouncing around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 I still haven't totally ruled out a chase but I share your concerns over the amount and large area of extreme rainfall. I have no desire to end a chase by being picked up by helicopter from the top of an oak tree while my car floats toward the Pamlico Sound.Yeah me either. Considering the amount of rainfall we have had and the winds that could be possible, it might be nearly impossible for me to get back to WNC for a few days after the storm passes so I will probably just monitor flooding up here if it were to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 So what's the precedence for this type of model spread on a hurricane (Euro -- Bermuda; rest of the models -- N.C.) in the 3-4 day range. How the heck do you warn for something like this if you are NHC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheapdad00 Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Euro sticking to it's OTS plan through 84....this is the model I would be riding. Any qpf maps out yet from the Euro with the OTS solution? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Both! Jackpot QPF this run is in GSP, 10+" BOOM!!! I guess that is from the ULL? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 So what's the precedence for this type of model spread on a hurricane (Euro -- Bermuda; rest of the models -- N.C.) in the 3-4 day range. How the heck do you warn for something like this if you are NHC? Seriously, it's getting the same with these tropical systems as it is with forecasting the path of winter storms here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Greg Fishel @gbfishel 24s24 seconds ago If European correct, it's another in a long list of forecast victories over the US models. Finally our time to shine, or more embarrassment? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 EX IDA is really throwing the wrench in some good model agreement. EURO is really keying in on ex IDA and that is really pushing this out to sea. If the EURO ENS are west again today, I still say the OP is on limited crack..lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 regardless of the track of the hurricane, good grief it creams the carolinas with extreme rainfall totals. Whoever gets under that axis of rainfall is going to get absolutely hammered. Over a foot easy. Incredible gradient too...a foot plus in the upstate roughly centered from gsp to charlotte to less than an inch here in north ga between hours 48 and 120. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 BOOM!!! I guess that is from the ULL? Your excited about 15-20" of rain? But yes, the ULL delivers the goods for GSP and east down through CAE and up into s-NC. Central/East NC is 3-5". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 regardless of the track of the hurricane, good grief it creams the carolinas with extreme rainfall totals. Whoever gets under that axis of rainfall is going to get absolutely hammered. Over a foot easy. Incredible gradient too...a foot plus in the upstate roughly centered from gsp to charlotte to less than an inch here in north ga between hours 48 and 120. Either way it seems we get a whole bunch of flooding rain, or less flooding but with wind and downed trees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 It's the best model and it hasn't wavered the past few runs, the other models have been bouncing around. While I agree, the Euros ensembles are far from agreeing with the op. At least the 0z ensembles. Curious to see how the 12z ensembles look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Euro rains from essentially today through next Tuesday... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Your excited about 15-20" of rain? But yes, the ULL delivers the goods for GSP and east down through CAE and up into s-NC. Central/East NC is 3-5". Not really. Just getting ready for winter I guess. Even if you cut it in half, that is just nasty. This is Saturday, correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 One more shift south and central NC will be in the 2-4" range, more of a "meh" type event...keep the shifts coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Euro is OTS just spinning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Not really. Just getting ready for winter I guess. Even if you cut it in half, that is just nasty. This is Saturday, correct? And tomorrow, and Friday and Sunday and Monday and Tuesday. Have fun.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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