Hvward Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 This is mostly a rain(flood) threat for SC correct? Not wind and rain correct? Too early to tell right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted September 30, 2015 Author Share Posted September 30, 2015 This is a little disconcerting... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 An almost dead westward or retrograding motion upon landfall in the Carolinas being advertised by GFS and Canadian is really rare in the historical record. quite extraordinary for sure. 12z canadian gets the center as far southwest as greenwood, sc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Let's assume Cat 4 status is achieved, I have heard that storms of this strength tend to alter the dynamics around them (road grader so to speak). What do we see are the options for impacting the trajectory of a Cat 4 storm? Would it push the ULL out of the way in the SE? Would a Fujiwhara effect with the LP to the east be possible? And is there precedent with other strong storms where we can show that models called the impact (of external WX features) correctly? It just seems to me that with RI tonight / tomorrow we could quickly be in uncharted territory with a home grown coastal system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 quite extraordinary for sure. 12z canadian gets the center as far southwest as greenwood, sc. Hard to get poleward with a big stop sign in the way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 An almost dead westward or retrograding motion upon landfall in the Carolinas being advertised by GFS and Canadian is really rare in the historical record. 12z UKMET actually has it moving SW from NE NC back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
btownheel Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Decisions, decisions... To possibly chase this one on the coast or follow the potential for heavy flooding in the mountains.. If I didn't have a boat load of thermodynamics hw then the decision would be easy. Anyone else considering chasing? If it verifies like the GFS suggests, this one could in my opinion be almost too dangerous to chase. I wouldn't chase on the coast. A cat 4 with that type of surge plus all the major rivers draining off this weekend's rain event is going to be really bad. Picking a good spot and shielding yourself against 100+ mph wind is one thing. But you can't shield from massive flooding.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 earlier I was concerned about being on the weak side as it brushed the outer banks and now i'm worried it will be too far south and i'll be looking south watching a major go from ILM to CLT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 earlier I was concerned about being on the weak side as it brushed the outer banks and now i'm worried it will be too far south and i'll be looking south watching a major go from ILM to CLT That's probably the least likely scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Decisions, decisions... To possibly chase this one on the coast or follow the potential for heavy flooding in the mountains.. If I didn't have a boat load of thermodynamics hw then the decision would be easy. Anyone else considering chasing? If it verifies like the GFS suggests, this one could in my opinion be almost too dangerous to chase. I still haven't totally ruled out a chase but I share your concerns over the amount and large area of extreme rainfall. I have no desire to end a chase by being picked up by helicopter from the top of an oak tree while my car floats toward the Pamlico Sound. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 I think the NHC is going to have to make a drastic change in it's track forecast...right now there is a high likelihood of this thing LF'ing outside of their cone (or right on the edge)....esp. if the Euro caves... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 All eyes on the Euro. To think yesterday its ensembles, The euro's had exactly what all the 12z suite has spit out today. Yet the 0z Op hashad a bad hiccup or stroke of genuis, we'll see in a few. Anyway saw this posted on another board. Check out the towers, thunderstorms getting way up high. Just more proof RI is going on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Maybe I am along in this thinking but I still think landfall in South Carolina is possible. Still to far out to really know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mjwise Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 12z UKMET actually has it moving SW from NE NC back. I've been digging through historical hurricane carolina landfall tracks and find little precedent for that kind of motion - only Hurricane #3 in 1911 comes close. EDIT: Hurricane #4 from 1913 also did this in NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted September 30, 2015 Author Share Posted September 30, 2015 I wouldn't chase on the coast. A cat 4 with that type of surge plus all the major rivers draining off this weekend's rain event is going to be really bad. Picking a good spot and shielding yourself against 100+ mph wind is one thing. But you can't shield from massive flooding.... Or the tree damage. After Isabel, it was pretty much impassible along hwy 64 from Manteo to Williamston, not to mention the hwy 17 corridor or 158 up through Currituck. I was living in Kill Devil Hills then, worling at a motel that housed nothing but linemen... power, cable TV, phone. Heard enough war stories from them after they'd come back from their 18 hours in the field for a few hours sleep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
btownheel Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Uh oh on the Canadian...through 72 looks very close to GFS Correction: Exact track as GFS, maybe a tick south, ILM to RDU, 78-84 hours. I'll say it again; someone around here owes me $10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 I've been digging through historical hurricane carolina landfall tracks and find little precedent for that kind of motion - only Hurricane #3 in 1911 comes close. C1-C5 carolina hurricanes.jpg 1911_Atlantic_hurricane_3_track.png I have seen numerous canes sit off our coast a drift move SW. Dennis that preceeded Floyd really sticks out in my mind. Just rare that its after official landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLO Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Maybe I am along in this thinking but I still think landfall in South Carolina is possible. Still to far out to really know. From what I am reading, plenty of people think that is possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 CMC is just sick for this area and I-40 as has been noted. How many times do hurricanes hit the NC coast and do a complete left turn going due west? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 107 PM EDT WED SEP 30 2015 VALID SEP 30/1200 UTC THRU OCT 04/0000 UTC ...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR INGEST... EVALUATION OF 12Z NAM/GFS ALONG WITH INITIAL PREFERENCES/FORECAST CONFIDENCE... EAST COAST DEVELOPMENTS ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ PREFERENCE: NON NAM CONSENSUS CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE COMPLEX PATTERN ACROSS THE EAST WITH AN UPEPR LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHEAST HELPING PULL MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION CONNECTED WITH JOAQUIN INLAND. MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH REGARDS STO THIS UPPER LOW...AND HAVE BEEN TRENDING SOUTHWEST WITH ITS POSITION. UNCERTAINTY INCREASES WITH REGARDS TO HOW THIS LOW INTERACTS WITH JOAQUIN. BUT ONE TREND HAS BEEN FOR A FURTHER SOUTH POSITION NEAR THE BAHAMAS WITH JOAQUIN...WHICH COMBINED WITH THE FURTHER SOUTHWEST UPPER LOW HELPS INCREASE THE HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT FURTHER SOUTHWEST INTO THE CAROLINAS THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. SEE THE QPF DISCUSSION FOR MORE DETAILS ON THIS. IN GENERAL IT SEEMS LIKE A 12Z GFS AND 0Z ECMWF CONSENSUS WOULD SUFFICE FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THE 12Z NAM IS AN OUTLIER IN HOW IT HANDLES JOAQUIN WHICH PROBABLY MAKES IT LESS RELIABLE OVER THE EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. WITH REGARDS TO JOAQUIN...LARGE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS...WITH THE 0Z ECMWF KEEPING IT OUT TO SEE AND THE 12Z GFS AND 0Z UKMET/CMC BRINGING IT INTO THE MID ATLANTIC SUNDAY OR MONDAY. THIS FORECAST IS LIKELY HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HOW FAR SOUTHWEST INTO THE BAHAMAS THE SYSTEM TRACKS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS AND THUS WHETHER IT CAN SLINGSHOT AROUND THE UPEPR LOW INTO THE CONUS...OR IS SHOVED OUT TO SEA. ECMWF ENSEMBLE DATA SHOWS TWO DISTINCT CAMPS...ONE CLOSER TO THE GFS AND ONE CLOSER TO THE ECMWF. GIVEN THE SPREAD AND UNCERTAINTY...A CONSENSUS SOLUTION WAS PREFERRED. THE 11 AM NHC TRACK PUTS THE SYSTEM JUST OFF THE DE COAST MONDAY MORNING...SEE THE NHC DISCUSSION FOR MORE DETAILS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Burger how bout a pbp on the euro. You still have the account? TIA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Allan Huffman @RaleighWx 37s 37 seconds ago 12z HWRF forecast for 5am Sunday. NE NC. #Joaquin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Allan Huffman @RaleighWx 28s29 seconds ago 12z GFDL is Morehead City. #joaquin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mjwise Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 CMC is just sick for this area and I-40 as has been noted. How many times do hurricanes hit the NC coast and do a complete left turn going due west? I couldn't find an example in the NOAA database from 1853-present. The closest I was found was one that hit SC and went west. EDIT: Hurricane #4 from 1913 was a Cat 1 that did that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Allan Huffman @RaleighWx 58s58 seconds ago GFDL zoom at 90 hours. #joaquin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 CMC is just sick for this area and I-40 as has been noted. How many times do hurricanes hit the NC coast and do a complete left turn going due west? its your going away present from mother nature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Allan Huffman @RaleighWx 58s58 seconds ago GFDL zoom at 90 hours. #joaquin This is a pretty good jump SW than it's previous runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted September 30, 2015 Author Share Posted September 30, 2015 Hurricane JOAQUIN Public Advisory Home Public Adv Fcst Adv Discussion Wind Probs Graphics Archive 000WTNT31 KNHC 301744TCPAT1BULLETINHURRICANE JOAQUIN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 11ANWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015200 PM EDT WED SEP 30 2015...JOAQUIN CONTINUING TO STRENGTHEN...SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION----------------------------------------------LOCATION...24.4N 72.9WABOUT 190 MI...305 KM ENE OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMASMAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...135 KM/HPRESENT MOVEMENT...SW OR 230 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/HMINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...968 MB...28.58 INCHESWATCHES AND WARNINGS--------------------CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:None.SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...* Central Bahamas including Cat Island, the Exumas, Long Island,Rum Cay, and San Salvador.A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...* Northwestern Bahamas including the Abacos, Berry Islands, Bimini,Eleuthera, Grand Bahama Island, and New Providence, but excludingAndros IslandA Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expectedsomewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life andproperty should be rushed to completion.A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possiblewithin the watch area.For storm information specific to your area, please monitorproducts issued by your national meteorological service.DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK------------------------------At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Joaquin waslocated near latitude 24.4 North, longitude 72.9 West. Joaquin ismoving toward the southwest near 6 mph (9 km/h). A general motiontoward the west-southwest or southwest is expected to continuethrough tonight. A turn toward the northwest and a decrease inforward speed are forecast Thursday or Thursday night. The centerof Joaquin is expected to move near or over portions of the centralBahamas tonight and Thursday.Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 85 mph (135 km/h)with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is expected, andJoaquin could become a major hurricane during the next couple ofdays.Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from thecenter and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 125 miles(205 km).The estimated minimum central pressure is 968 mb (28.58 inches). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 This is where NHC "splitting the difference" doesn't seem to really work, does it? I mean, either Joaquin is captured or not. There isn't really a "semi-capture" scenario, is there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NRVwxfan. Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Lets not forget that tornadoes will become a threat as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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