packbacker Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 This would be fun... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 This run doesn't have the extreme rainfall totals, more of the 4-7 variety instead of 10-20 It all keeps shifting south, so the max QPF is in Hilton Head.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Center over CLT at hour 102,heavy rain on the north side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 The UK is a touch east of the GFS but at day 5 the SLP ends up over GSP. Can't tell exactly where it tracks but I would guess similar to the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted September 30, 2015 Author Share Posted September 30, 2015 This would be fun... I'll pass.... 350 80' pine trees on the property. No thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 If Joaquin rains himself out inland we're all gonna be in trouble. This run is disaster for most of NC/VA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Wow looks like even Alabama could get rain out of this. My birthday weekend may not be so dry after all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted September 30, 2015 Author Share Posted September 30, 2015 It all keeps shifting south, so the max QPF is in Hilton Head.... That 9.72" is IMBY ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
btownheel Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 This would be fun... If it makes it to a Cat 4; we'd stil be looking at 80-85 mph winds by the time it got up here, with 7-10 more inches of rain and a waterlogged ground. Crap... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 If it makes it to a Cat 4; we'd stil be looking at 80-85 mph winds by the time it got up here, with 7-10 more inches of rain and a waterlogged ground. Crap... Yes, this would be a true disaster, but considering we have no model agreement I am sure it will change. For those who didn't see my puzzled smiley face, yes I was being sarcastic on "this would be fun". We need to start rooting for a OTS miss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxKnurd Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 If it makes it to a Cat 4; we'd stil be looking at 80-85 mph winds by the time it got up here, with 7-10 more inches of rain and a waterlogged ground. Crap... Exactly, a Cat 4 at that tracks is terrible for the state. Damned if we do, damned if we don't according to how I'm seeing the models. It either skirts the state and we get copious, revord shattering amounts of rain or direct hit that puts much of if not the entire state in hurricane and tropical Storm wind fields coupled with not as record breaking rainfall amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Canadian makes landfall at Cape Cod then moves NE. Old Run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Whoever edited the title .... thanks! It's what I do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 How strong is it on the GFS when it hits? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Uh oh on the Canadian...through 72 looks very close to GFS Correction: Exact track as GFS, maybe a tick south, ILM to RDU, 78-84 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 I'll pass.... 350 80' pine trees on the property. No thanks. +1 same here house is in the woods practically. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 If Joaquin rains himself out inland we're all gonna be in trouble. This run is disaster for most of NC/VA. Yeah this gfs run is a real monster with regards to flooding, which really would likely be historic if it followed the gfs track., Such a path on the gfs would certainly produce potentially prolific upslope flow on top of the usual heavy rains with such a system and it honestly scares me to see think about how much rain could potentially fall over the carolinas, in particular the mountains, with such an unusual track and speed. Interesting to see the Models continue to be every so slightly further southwest with the upper low which would mean the axis of heavy rains ahead of joaquin ends up further west...which obviously would be pretty big for us in the far western carolinas and north ga. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxKnurd Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Uh oh on the Canadian...through 72 looks very close to GFS Correction: Exact track as GFS, maybe a tick south, ILM to RDU, 78-84 hours. Close to a Fran track isn't it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Close to a Fran track isn't it? To me it does. Obviously something got ingested into these 12z runs as the GFS/CMC/UK are all fairly close and take the pretty much the same track... UK is a little north of GFS/CMC but it's much further SW than it's 0z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Not to sound hyperbolic, but this scenario seems like the worst of Fran and Floyd combined into one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 CMC... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 I can't see the maps at work, is GSP starting to get into the heavier rain possibilities , with the more S and West movement ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 I can't see the maps at work, is GSP starting to get into the heavier rain possibilities , with the more S and West movement ? 5+ inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Canadian : This destroys the I-40 corridor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 This would be fun... CR Jackpot! The highest wind signal on the map is almost literally right over my house on that image. The Euro will be very telling this afternoon. These large shifts make me think that by the time it's all said and done, central NC will be out of the danger zone. I still think locally 5" of rain makes the most sense right now. I would expect to see the extreme totals be reduced in later runs, not that 10" would be out of the question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Navgem is leading the way?.....12z it tracks over MYR to CAE to GSP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLO Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 This is mostly a rain(flood) threat for SC correct? Not wind and rain correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Canadian : This destroys the I-40 corridor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mjwise Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 An almost dead westward or retrograding motion upon landfall in the Carolinas being advertised by GFS and Canadian is really rare in the historical record. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Decisions, decisions... To possibly chase this one on the coast or follow the potential for heavy flooding in the mountains.. If I didn't have a boat load of thermodynamics hw then the decision would be easy. Anyone else considering chasing? If it verifies like the GFS suggests, this one could in my opinion be almost too dangerous to chase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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