Solak Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 TROPICAL STORM JOAQUIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015 1100 PM EDT MON SEP 28 2015 Satellite images indicate that the shower and thunderstorm activity associated with the depression has increased and become better organized during the past several hours. In addition, the low-level center now appears to have moved closer to the convection than it was earlier. The latest Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB were 2.5/35 kt, and the initial intensity is set at that value, making the cyclone Tropical Storm Joaquin. This intensity analysis also agrees with the reconnaissance aircraft data from earlier today that showed winds just under tropical-storm force. The center of Joaquin has been moving southwestward during the last several hours, but it is expected to begin moving slowly westward overnight. This westward track is forecast to continue for a couple of days while a mid-level ridge remains to the north of the storm. After that time, a trough is anticipated to amplify over the eastern United States, which should cause Joaquin to turn northward and accelerate. There is considerable spread in the models, mainly due to the timing of when and how fast the storm makes the northward turn, due to differences in the evolution of the trough. In general, the guidance envelope has shifted southward for the first couple of days and then westward after that time. The official track forecast has been adjusted accordingly, but additional southward and westward adjustment may be needed in subsequent advisories. Northwesterly shear of about 20 kt is currently affecting Joaquin, causing most of the thunderstorm activity to be located to the southeast of the center. The shear is expected to lessen some during the next couple of days, which in combination with warm water and high relative humidity values should allow Joaquin to strengthen. The official intensity forecast is raised from the previous one, but is lower than the intensity model consensus at days 3-5. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/0300Z 26.7N 70.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 29/1200Z 26.9N 71.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 30/0000Z 27.1N 72.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 30/1200Z 27.2N 72.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 01/0000Z 27.4N 73.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 02/0000Z 28.6N 74.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 03/0000Z 32.4N 74.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 04/0000Z 38.0N 74.0W 55 KT 65 MPH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted September 29, 2015 Author Share Posted September 29, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCHurricane Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 This could be a fun one to track. Lots of uncertainty with this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted September 29, 2015 Author Share Posted September 29, 2015 This kind of stands out from the disco... " The officialtrack forecast has been adjusted accordingly, but additionalsouthward and westward adjustment may be needed in subsequentadvisories." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 Yeah I can see the chance of a west trend with this one more so than a east one given the setup, while the rain we have gotten this week has been slow and spotty enough to soak in the ground is pretty wet and if we get 5-8" fast like is typical in a TS/Cane we could see some issues.....especially in the higher areas of SC/NC and VA... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted September 29, 2015 Author Share Posted September 29, 2015 Gotta love the twitter hype already...SMH. The Weather Geek @NastoBrian 8m8 minutes ago Hamilton Square, NJ Sandy happened on October 29th I believe, I think #Joaquin is gonna make sandy look like it was nothing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 Gotta love the twitter hype already...SMH. The Weather Geek @NastoBrian 8m8 minutes ago Hamilton Square, NJ Sandy happened on October 29th I believe, I think #Joaquin is gonna make sandy look like it was nothing Yeah pretty crazy, given its a sheared out minimal system with a lot going against it....on the current forecasted track it would be more than likely be a east dominated storm with a weak west side and the worst impact would be Long Island etc east of track......if it trends more west then it becomes even harder for it to be anything more than a sloppy mess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCHurricane Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 Gotta love the twitter hype already...SMH. The Weather Geek @NastoBrian 8m8 minutes ago Hamilton Square, NJ Sandy happened on October 29th I believe, I think #Joaquin is gonna make sandy look like it was nothing I bet I've seen some 18z HWRF images posted at least a half dozen times on FB and Twitter already. A certain forum in here could be entertaining. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 00Z GFS having issues with the low it seems, jumps it around some after it passes 150 miles east of Hatteras maybe....but it seems west after it comes in ending up over Lake Huron....18Z had it near northern Maine for that panel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 00Z Euro takes it SW to the eastern edge of the Bahamas then has it move NE well out to sea, but it does appear to nail Bermuda on the way...........a lot different from the 12Z run.......gonna be a tough week for forecasters on the east coast 00Z CMC also takes it OTS......00Z GFS is a weak system just offshore the only models hyping the storm at this point are the HWRF and GFDL..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 06Z GFS is OTS now as well, the GFS does however have a "new" 998 low form right over eastern NC Sat and that moves NE up the coast and eastern NC north gets destroyed with rainfall totals of 6-12" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted September 29, 2015 Author Share Posted September 29, 2015 Joe Bastardi @BigJoeBastardi 28m28 minutes ago State College, PA GFS rain amounts through the roof. that warm water off east coast has to be heard from! Will enhance threat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 Gotta love the twitter hype already...SMH. The Weather Geek @NastoBrian 8m8 minutes ago Hamilton Square, NJ Sandy happened on October 29th I believe, I think #Joaquin is gonna make sandy look like it was nothing So since it is September 29th, I see the correlation... Kevin is that you? To make Sandy "look like it was nothing", I am pretty sure that you would have to wipe out the Brooklyn Bridge. Good luck with that forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 0z UK... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 ^ Moving WNW? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 Sandy redux book it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 ^ Moving WNW? You would think it could move WNW with that high to the NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 Looking at the 0z Euro I thought for sure the problem would be the trough not digging far enough south but it actually is further south and stronger it's just the Joaquin isn't as far west and much stronger. Scary thought of what may happen if it does capture Joaquin. EPS still bullish on NC impact. Graphic below per WSI/twitter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 Sandy redux book it Winter cancel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted September 29, 2015 Author Share Posted September 29, 2015 HPC 7 day forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 HPC 7 day forecast. IIf we get a full phase, i cant imagine the totals then Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 Looking at the 0z Euro I thought for sure the problem would be the trough not digging far enough south but it actually is further south and stronger it's just the Joaquin isn't as far west and much stronger. Scary thought of what may happen if it does capture Joaquin. EPS still bullish on NC impact. Graphic below per WSI/twitter. GFS also. with just less than 50% ens members showing some sort of system off the east coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 Winter cancel. Remember it's a storm at the end October.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 Remember it's a storm at the end October.... Oh, I thought it was just October. Ok, winter uncancel then! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 Oh, I thought it was just October. Ok, winter uncancel then!Lol no snow storms anywhere in the East. It can rain all it wants but no snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted September 29, 2015 Author Share Posted September 29, 2015 NOAA NWS National Hurricane Center added 4 new photos. 2 mins · Tropical Storm Joaquin is gradually strengthening. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening during the next 48 hours is forecast. Joaquin is centered about 425 miles east-northeast of the Northwest Bahamas, moving toward the west near 5 mph, and this general motion is expected to continue for the next 48 hours. There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect at this time. A U.S. Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter plane will be investigating Joaquin early this afternoon. Get the latest on this tropical cyclone by visiting the NHC website at www.hurricanes.gov 1 Like1 Share Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jshetley Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 Lol no snow storms anywhere in the East. It can rain all it wants but no snowstorm. I think that's probably the way it works, rain is fine, snow is not. Sandy brought snow to the mountains in 2012 and that winter was not good. I think the northeast had an October snowstorm in 2011, but I'm not sure. But we all know how that winter turned out. I'm not sure we want any real snow outside of the mountains before Dec 1 for our winter to be good, although we had some places getting snow last Nov 1 and that winter turned out to be ok after a very slow start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevDodd Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 Hmmm: Yesterday the Euro dragged Joaquin in over NC. Today's UKMET run pulls the storm inland between Wilmington and Morehead City, and GFS responds with a foot of rain Down East. Complicated scenarios.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
monadnocks Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 At the risk of sounding like one of those "how much snow in my backyard" people, where's the best place to find out how much rain in Raleigh for Friday through Sunday? I'm really not familiar with NC weather but since I'm helping my son move to Raleigh this coming weekend, I need to come up to speed. Move in day is supposed to be Saturday. Sunday I'm supposed to be driving back to NH. (Looking at the maps, I'm beginning to wonder if the 12 hour drive is going to be possible in one day. It is possible on a good weather day.) Thanks for any help you can give! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 Just catching up on the 12z runs...12z Euro has biblical rains across NC/VA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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