arizonasooner Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 I believe Long Island in the Bahamas is in for a bad afternoon/evening. A few people live down there - I wonder if they were able to evacuate? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CanadianGuy Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 18z guidance. Track is still a mess, and several models still have an east coast landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 1, 2015 Author Share Posted October 1, 2015 Eight hours until the next recon flight.... Lets see how far this can go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 I believe Long Island in the Bahamas is in for a bad afternoon/evening. A few people live down there - I wonder if they were able to evacuate?That island has had some big hits over the years. I'm sure most of those folks are pretty hurricane savvy and got out.Sent from my LG G4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rick G Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Quick question: isn't there at some point where the hurricane will start influencing it's environment and start making the steering winds follow the storm as apposed to the storm following the steering winds? I remember reading this a long time ago and seemed to remember that this happens with strong storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Quick question: isn't there at some point where the hurricane will start influencing it's environment and start making the steering winds follow the storm as apposed to the storm following the steering winds? I remember reading this a long time ago and seemed to remember that this happens with strong storms. Dimensions, more than intensity is what matters most, though intensity has some saying. In general, tropical cyclones are no match, sometimes by an order of magnitude or more, to mid latitude baroclinic systems...in the big picture, literally, a longwave deep trough is just such a big influence wrt a hurricane so as the intensity of the latter makes little difference. That being said, in borderline situations that little influence could make a difference. But most models have a strong TC, growing in size even, but still recurve Joaquin out to sea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 1, 2015 Author Share Posted October 1, 2015 Spectacular Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Nice calls on the intensity, Lake Effect King Happy to see the eye clear out and the better symmetry and colder cloud tops in the CDO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 1, 2015 Author Share Posted October 1, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 The GFDL is not worthless, is it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 what is that little low level eddy off the east coast of FL in that photo? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
salbers Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 The wobble has gone back almost to the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 what is that little low level eddy off the east coast of FL in that photo?It's a remnant low-level feature left behind by what was once 99L.Sent from my LG G4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Nice calls on the intensity, Lake Effect King Happy to see the eye clear out and the better symmetry and colder cloud tops in the CDO. Thanks Bob! Been doing this for a long time.....I think I have a knack for "seeing" when RI's are about to occur...IMO, the symmetry of the system (ie, nice and circular at the surface) plays a huge role in the potential of RI.....everything else was only getting better as time went on... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Recon flight is in the Bahamas now. Getting closer to the eye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 So this thing is still moving slowly southwestward. The American models yesterday had Joaquin beginning to lift northward away from the Bahamas around this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ground Scouring Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Residents in some of the islands were really caught off guard by Joaquin. I can see why. The southern islands (Acklins, Crooked, Mayaguana, and the Inaguas) were not even under a Hurricane WATCH until 5:00 a.m. EDT/09Z this morning, only four hours or so before hurricane-force winds arrived, because the NHC track failed to account for the more southerly movement and showed an earlier westerly turn, keeping hurricane-force winds north of those islands. Why didn't the NHC at least recommend a watch?This reminds me of Humberto 2007, when a rapidly intensifying storm deviated east of the forecast track and was expected to be near hurricane intensity, yet the NHC, following earlier model guidance and intermediate advisory protocol, showed an earlier landfall in Texas and didn't even recommend/issue a Hurricane Watch. The reliance on continuity really seems dangerous when dealing with an evolving situation so close to land. Will this be fixed?While I hate to blame the NHC, in this and some other cases, I don't see how it can avoid responsibility for failing to recommend appropriate watches/warnings because it adhered to continuity and model guidance instead of short-term meteorological trends. Are Bahamians suddenly even less important because they aren't U.S. citizens? (Note: I actually posted the above on the NHC's Facebook page and am eager to hear its response.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 123 kt flight level, 116 kt SFMR in SW quadrant. Pressure 931mb. This is a very intense hurricane. I think they are having communication problems again. Jeez.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Marusak Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Residents in some of the islands were really caught off guard by Joaquin. I can see why. The southern islands (Acklins, Crooked, Mayaguana, and the Inaguas) were not even under a Hurricane WATCH until 5:00 a.m. EDT/09Z this morning, only four hours or so before hurricane-force winds arrived, because the NHC track failed to account for the more southerly movement and showed an earlier westerly turn, keeping hurricane-force winds north of those islands. Why didn't the NHC at least recommend a watch? This reminds me of Humberto 2007, when a rapidly intensifying storm deviated east of the forecast track and was expected to be near hurricane intensity, yet the NHC, following earlier model guidance and intermediate advisory protocol, showed an earlier landfall in Texas and didn't even recommend/issue a Hurricane Watch. The reliance on continuity really seems dangerous when dealing with an evolving situation so close to land. Will this be fixed? While I hate to blame the NHC, in this and some other cases, I don't see how it can avoid responsibility for failing to recommend appropriate watches/warnings because it adhered to continuity and model guidance instead of short-term meteorological trends. Are Bahamians suddenly even less important because they aren't U.S. citizens? (Note: I actually posted the above on the NHC's Facebook page and am eager to hear its response.) it's actually important, since the Bahamas are technically a separate country. and as such, the US National Hurricane Center does not have jurisdiction over them for watches/warnings. I'm sure they probably recommended it to them in inter-governmental chats. and yes the Hurricane Center will broadcast that said country has issued said watch and warning because of x storm. but you can't force another country to take action like that just because you say so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheManWithNoFace Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 it's actually important, since the Bahamas are technically a separate country. and as such, the US National Hurricane Center does not have jurisdiction over them for watches/warnings. I'm sure they probably recommended it to them in inter-governmental chats. and yes the Hurricane Center will broadcast that said country has issued said watch and warning because of x storm. but you can't force another country to take action like that just because you say so. Are you sure? It would seem logical to me that with the proximity to the US and our territories in the Carribean that the NHC would be responsible for US citizens who are boating or living in the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayson Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Why does Joaquin appear to still be heading SSW? Shouldn't it at least be making the turn by now? Does this concern anyone else? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GramaxRefugee Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 it's actually important, since the Bahamas are technically a separate country. and as such, the US National Hurricane Center does not have jurisdiction over them for watches/warnings. I'm sure they probably recommended it to them in inter-governmental chats. and yes the Hurricane Center will broadcast that said country has issued said watch and warning because of x storm. but you can't force another country to take action like that just because you say so. As I read the post, I wanted to say " you do realize what the N in NHC stands for, right?" ....but I'm not one of those. Just let it go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Marusak Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Are you sure? It would seem logical to me that with the proximity to the US and our territories in the Carribean that the NHC would be responsible for US citizens who are boating or living in the area. yep, it's a pure jurisdictional matter. just like after a certain point in the Atlantic the Canadian Hurricane Centre issues statements/warnings/advisories for their territorial waters, with Mexico doing the same. Now mind you, i'm sure if they got a call from Miami recommending that they prepare as they're projected they're going to get slammed they will pay attention to it and probably issue statements as appropriate. but we provide the center and the modeling capabilities as per agreement with the other countries in the Atlantic and eastern Pacific basins. but they still issue the warnings as a sovereign country. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 It is the same with Cuba Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Just checked the recon data from earlier. Looks like an outer wind maxima has increased. Looks like an ERC is now underway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheManWithNoFace Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 yep, it's a pure jurisdictional matter. just like after a certain point in the Atlantic the Canadian Hurricane Centre issues statements/warnings/advisories for their territorial waters, with Mexico doing the same. Now mind you, i'm sure if they got a call from Miami recommending that they prepare as they're projected they're going to get slammed they will pay attention to it and probably issue statements as appropriate. but we provide the center and the modeling capabilities as per agreement with the other countries in the Atlantic and eastern Pacific basins. but they still issue the warnings as a sovereign country. Good info. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Marusak Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Good info. Thanks no problem. besides, we might see this come into play, even with the 03z advisory just out. reason why: Nova Scotia and newfoundland aren't out of the woods yet. and anything up that way may affect oil and natural gas prices. but if he did head to the rock, i have to admit after the lack of summer they had up there for a full month, enough to get the mets jokingly arrested (look up Eddie Sherr of Newfoundland TV [ntv] on that), they might just say why the hell not, bring Joaquin on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 The eye of Joaquin contracted in satellite imagery late thisafternoon, but has become obscured by cirrus clouds since that time.Recent microwave imagery and aircraft observations have not shownany indications of an eyewall replacement, but the intensity appearsto have leveled off for now. Surface and reconnaissance aircraft data indicate that Joaquin'swind field has expanded during the past 24 hours. The initial andforecast wind radii have been adjusted outward accordingly. Based on microwave and recon, looks like NHC dismissed the outer wind maxima as being the beginning of an ERC and merely expansion of the wind field. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 GFS op came back west some and gained latitude a little quicker, flirted with trough, but eventually allowed Joaquin to miss and escape. We'll see if the Euro shifts west any but I doubt it. I really think the hurricane would need to already be gaining latitude at present time to increase the probability of being channeled northwest around the periphery/bend of the cutoff for the capture/phase solution. That just doesn't appear to be happening and therefore I don't expect the Euro to pick up on something to change its tune. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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