Windspeed Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Motion appears to be 270 now, albeit slowly. This is critical moment for the central and northern Bahamas. If this gains more longitude than the operational models are showing, more populated communities in the Bahamas will be impacted by the hurricane's intense core. Then again, this could be the modeled stall and slow drift west before taking on a more northerly track. Start watching for high cirrus clouds to begin channeling to the northwest as the day progresses. 250mb flow aloft should begin feeling the trough and evacuating outflow towards the CONUS. For a few days, that will allow for the best upper-level environment of this hurricane's life cycle. If the core doesn't stall too long or move too slowly in the same location and avoid upwelling on the shallow Bahama bank's shelf waters, Joaquin could even reach category 5 intensity for brief time, barring any internal structural changes. As for the models and eventual path of Joaquin, you probably want to see northward or northwest motion begin as early as this evening for a full phasing scenario over the US coast. That doesn't mean it won't impact the coast if it does not phase. However, to say the trend east in the operational models was significant is an understatement. A more western and tilted trough may still threaten the Mid-Atlantic coast. A more eastward amplified trough will block a landfall in the Mid-Atlantic, but that still doesn't rule out direct impacts much further north in New England and Canada. I'm sure everyone will be focusing on the 12z run of the operational to see if the eastward trend continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 If any, the short term motion appears to be due south...maybe a wobble or the beginning of a cyclonic loop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 It does appear to be wobbling south in the latest loop. Becoming more and more symmetrical too. Definitely has that infamous buzz saw look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Re: motion, I was watching the overall motion of the core earlier and it seemed have ended the southward motion and began more of a 270 motion. That appears to have just been the eye clearing out. The core may not be doing anything other than a slow drift or relatively slow loop in the same location for a while. Even with the eye clearing out, you'd think that would make it easier to track, but if it is just wobbling around in loops, it may just be easier to ignore these motions until a more defined vector of motion is established. Otherwise, you'll just be wrong or making yourself crazy trying to figure it out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Good graphic from KRDU, courtesy of a poster on the SE regional forum: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Max winds up to 125MPH at 11AM advisory Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 URRICANE JOAQUIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 15NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015 1100 AM EDT THU OCT 01 2015 An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft reported 700-mb flight-level winds of 119 kt in the northwestern eyewall, with a 117 kt surface wind estimate from the Stepped Frequency Microwave Radiometer in the southwestern eyewall. The latest central pressure was 942 mb. Based on these data, the advisory intensity is increased to 110 kt. Satellite imagery indicates that an eye is trying to form in the central dense overcast, and that the cirrus outflow is good in all directions. Joaquin is expected to intensify a little more in the next 12 to 24 hours as it remains over very warm waters and in an environment of decreasing vertical shear. After that time, there could be some fluctuations in intensity due to eyewall replacement cycles. There is some uncertainty in the intensity forecast in the 48-96 hour period. The statistical models suggest that Joaquin should weaken due to increasing shear. However, several of the global models forecast the hurricane to move into an area of strong upper-level divergence and show a falling central pressure. The new forecast will continue to show weakening during this time, but it would not be a surprise if it is stronger than currently forecast. The initial motion is 220/5. Water vapor imagery shows a mid- to upper-level ridge north of the hurricane, with a developing deep-layer trough over the eastern and southeastern United States. The dynamical models forecast this trough to become a cut-off low as it moves southeastward and weakens the ridge. This pattern evolution should cause Joaquin to turn northwestward in 24 hours or so and then turn northward. After 36 hours, the guidance remains very divergent. The Canadian, GFDL, HWRF, and NAVGEM models forecast Joaquin to turn northwestward and make landfall over the Carolinas and mid-Atlantic States. The ECMWF continues to forecast a slower northeastward motion taking Joaquin near Bermuda and out to sea. The UKMET and GFS are in between these extremes showing a generally northward motion. Given the spread and the possibility that the 1200 UTC guidance could show additional changes, the forecast track after 36 hours is nudged only slightly to the east at this time. The new track lies to the east of the landfalling models, but to the west of the GFS, UKMET, ECMWF, and the various consensus models. Further adjustments to the track may be needed later today depending on how the models do (or do not) change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 I think the key at present is to watch how long the hurricane continues in a sw motion. NHC says it expects it to turn nw to north in 24 hrs or so. Their graphic shows the position of the hurricane well nw of its present location at 8 a.m. Friday. If this is to occur the turn will have to commence this afternoon. What a suspenseful situation this is with lack of model consensus continuing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 looks like a westward shift now https://pbs.twimg.com/tweet_video/CQPbkhKW8AA7F2_.mp4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 looks like a westward shift now Agreed. Looks like hurricane hunters will show the location with not as much of a S component to movement as the prior two. Satellite on the last few frames confirms. Should be the turn starting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Extremely stressful week this is turning out to be! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 You know what is creepy tho, the 0z Euro had this southeast of Long Island. It looks like it will be wrong and this is a key detail. Ridging building in stronger on the 12z, assuming thanks to the increased intensity of Joaquin. End result is a recurve but not quite as far east as the Euro. 1/4 Blend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
salbers Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Based on the visible frame (loop at the link) below we can see that it will probably end up north of the forecast position at 00Z Oct 2. It's nice to overlay the forecast points on the visible loop. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/11L/html5-vis-long.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Yes, recon and visible shows a more westward component to motion. Big eye appears to be clearing out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 12z operational GFS follows 6z and is establishing consistency in digging the trough further east like the Euro has been for the past few days. The OTS solution is definitely gaining support for now. Sent from my LG G4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Created a model performance thread for Joaquin, for anyone who is interested: http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/46988-model-performance-for-joaquin/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 GGEM still LF's in NC... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CanadianGuy Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 GGEM still LF's in NC...And HWRF. We're not out of the woods yet.Sent from my GT-N8010 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Not the first time, and won't be the last time that the models made an over correction. Yesterday we saw a big SW jog towards SC and even GA, now today to the East. Follow the median right towards the mid-atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 And HWRF. We're not out of the woods yet. Sent from my GT-N8010 12z HWRF changed team, it's OTS now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CanadianGuy Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 12z HWRF changed team, it's OTS now.Thanks for letting me knowSent from my GT-N8010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 1, 2015 Author Share Posted October 1, 2015 000URNT12 KNHC 011712VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL112015A. 01/16:47:40ZB. 23 deg 02 min N074 deg 08 min WC. 700 mb 2567 mD. 114 ktE. 132 deg 11 nmF. 235 deg 111 ktG. 132 deg 15 nmH. 937 mbI. 12 C / 3051 mJ. 20 C / 3043 mK. 9 C / NAL. OPEN WNWM. C24N. 12345 / 7O. 0.02 / 1.5 nmP. AF301 0711A JOAQUIN OB 24MAX FL WIND 120 KT 177 / 9 NM 15:24:30ZCNTR DROPSONDE SFC WIND 330 / 14 KT; Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 12z HWRF does show 154mph winds as the eyewall brushes over Nassau tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Report of sustained wind of 111 mph at Church Grove, Bahamas with gusts to 144. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Yeah, not surprising the HWRF never gets the core past 75 west. It lifts the system a good bit east of New England and heading NE maybe impacting Canada or OTS. The good ol'GFDL is still hanging on to a phase with the trough and pulling Joaquin into the Mid-Atlantic. Slim pickings for now if you're still looking for a landfall there. Let's see what the Euro op does here in the next 30 minutes. I don't expect it to change much. Sent from my LG G4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 12z Ukie is further east...fully OTS camp now. It's the GGEM and GFDL vs the rest of the world now. I wouldn't place my bets on that combo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 12z Ukie is further east...fully OTS camp now. It's the GGEM and GFDL vs the rest of the world now. I wouldn't place my bets on that combo. The GGEM ensembles are also mostly hits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bluescat1 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicatethat maximum sustained winds have increased to near 130 mph (210km/h) with higher gusts. Joaquin is now a category 4 hurricane onthe Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some additionalstrengthening is possible during the next 24 hours, with somefluctuations in intensity possible Friday night and Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 The way this thing is looking now I'd say a legit shot at becoming a cat 5 but we will see. Eye clearing out nicely now with outflow continuing to improve Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 The way this thing is looking now I'd say a legit shot at becoming a cat 5 but we will see. Eye clearing out nicely now with outflow continuing to improve Needs to start moving. Upwelling is going to start being a problem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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