Floydbuster Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Yeah. Spoke too soon. This run the GFS slams LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 The 0Z GFS seems to have initialized with a pressure of around 989 MB. I wouldn't trust much of anything the 0Z run of the GFS says. You put bad data into the run you're going to get bad data out of the run. Basic forecasting 101 when it comes down to utilizing model data. FWIW the high-res GFS had the pressure around 965 MB for initialization. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 I'd like a bit less than Isabel. 35-40 sustained and not many gusts over 50. Up the bay has striking look to it. I hope it is further west even if we are in northeast quadrant; more time inland to weaken. Up the bay we would be west but very close and I dont want very close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpeters3 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 The 0Z GFS seems to have initialized with a pressure of around 989 MB. I wouldn't trust much of anything the 0Z run of the GFS says. You put bad data into the run you're going to get bad data out of the run. Basic forecasting 101 when it comes down to utilizing model data. FWIW the high-res GFS had the pressure around 965 MB for initialization. I rarely see the GFS initialize with the correct pressure (presumably due to resolution issues). Furthermore, a significant component of storm track and intensity is dictated by large scales... so don't throw in the towel on every run that doesn't get the exact pressure right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 What I'm curious about is why is it only the Euro that predicted the southwest movement to the central Bahamas while the American models failed to see it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hikingfool85 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Anxious to see what this thing does. Was in Richmond, VA for Isabelle....and she was cat. 1 dying to TS just NW of me. Would hate to see what this thing could do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Nice temperature gradient... Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)Transmitted: 1st day of the month at 3:43ZAgency: United States Air ForceAircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF99-5309Storm Number & Year: 11 in 2015Storm Name: Joaquin (flight in the North Atlantic basin)Mission Number: 5Observation Number: 27A. Time of Center Fix: 1st day of the month at 3:09:20ZB. Center Fix Coordinates: 23°39'N 73°09'W (23.65N 73.15W)C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,677m (8,783ft) at 700mbD. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 105kts (~ 120.8mph)E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 16 nautical miles (18 statute miles) to the ESE (123°) of center fixF. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 220° at 117kts (From the SW at ~ 134.6mph)G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 16 nautical miles (18 statute miles) to the ESE (123°) of center fixH. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 950mb (28.06 inHg)I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 11°C (52°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,049m (10,003ft)J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 20°C (68°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,060m (10,039ft)K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 7°C (45°F)K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not AvailableL. Eye Character: Open in the northwestM. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 22 nautical miles (25 statute miles)N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and TemperatureN. Fix Level: 700mbO. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical milesO. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mileRemarks Section:Maximum Flight Level Wind: 117kts (~ 134.6mph) which was observed 16 nautical miles (18 statute miles) to the ESE (123°) from the flight level center at 3:04:30ZDropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 260° at 19kts (From the W at 22mph)Maximum Flight Level Temp: 23°C (73°F) which was observed 12 nautical miles (14 statute miles) to the WNW (303°) from the flight level center Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Everything is starting the cave to the EURO. This event is NBD imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 HWRF initialized at 946 mb ......its identical thru 42 hrs to the 18Z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 0Z GFS initialized at Joaquin 989 MB versus the ~952 MB. The whole run is garbage and pretty much useless. Global often do not depict a low enough pressure. That is a weenie defense mechanism imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Global often do not depict a low enough pressure. That is a weenie defense mechanism imo. Probably. Either way we'll see what the 06Z run shows for consistency sake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hikingfool85 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 It might be a wheenie defense, but since the US cant do any better then what they have....what else can we do? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Msalgado Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 The 0Z GFS seems to have initialized with a pressure of around 989 MB. I wouldn't trust much of anything the 0Z run of the GFS says. You put bad data into the run you're going to get bad data out of the run. Basic forecasting 101 when it comes down to utilizing model data. FWIW the high-res GFS had the pressure around 965 MB for initialization. 30 mb in a very small area that the GFS can barely resolve anyway aren't going to make a huge difference in the entire synoptic pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Msalgado Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 What I really want to know is whether the 0z had the data from the upper air recon flight they made today. If it did, then I trust it more than others. Otherwise, will just wait for the 12z tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Yes, the 00z model runs used the recon data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Video podcast on Joaquin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Euro should be coming in any minute now. WHo wants to do the play by play? Still out to sea. Pretty impressive to see such a variety of solutions even with the additional data. Goes to show how sensitive the setup is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 The Euro and UK are now taking Joaquin down deep into the Bahamas, below 23N, essentially keeping Joaquin in the Bahamas for an extra day and making it more likely it heads out to sea. To catch the southeast US low fujiwara, Joaquin really needs to lift out of the Bahamas sooner, before it gets caught instead by the energy passing under the ridge by Bermuda, but so far it has shown no sign it wants to halt its sw path. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 The 0Z GFS seems to have initialized with a pressure of around 989 MB. I wouldn't trust much of anything the 0Z run of the GFS says. You put bad data into the run you're going to get bad data out of the run. Basic forecasting 101 when it comes down to utilizing model data. FWIW the high-res GFS had the pressure around 965 MB for initialization. This makes no sense to me. At 5 pm, the pressure was 968 MB, so at ~7 pm, when the GFS should have been initializing its run, why would it not have included the system pressure at that time? I'm not a met, but I've done somewhat similar modeling on a small scale (chemical reaction/mixing models that are similar) and agree that garbage in equals garbage out - I just don't understand how known initial conditions wouldn't have been fed into the model run. Am I missing something here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Probably 1% of the uncertainty can be pinned on initialization errors and 99% on the widespread weakness of features in the upper atmosphere for a thousand miles around the storm. I think the NC and s VA landfall, counter-clockwise loop and weaker system then heading for New England is the most likely outcome. A slightly offshore loop as with a storm in Oct 1984 whose name I don't recall (but I remember the loop it made) could happen too. Models should start to get a handle on this later today. There will be better sampling of the important wind field over the southeast U.S. to determine how much northward tracking should follow. I predict model consensus by 00z Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
varicweather Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/SAT_ATL/atlanim8wv.html The water vapor loop linked above shows the trough and soon to be upper level low to the West and a mid Atlantic low to the East. There is no where to go but up the Atlantic seaboard. The trough already appears to be going negative as well. I agree with others that by evening we should have better clarity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billgwx Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 The 00Z GFS was initialized at a lower central pressure...I see 968 mb at 20 km resolution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 ....By tomorrow evening or so, I bet we have a MH on our hands.... NHC now calling for a MH in 72 hours.....I say sooner...way sooner.... Very preliminary thought based on future conditions for Joaquin....I think he maxes out at 945ish pressure, and touches Cat. 4 status in a day or so....as for track...way too much uncertainty....especially with the potential redevelopment of Ida.... Cat. 4 by tomorrow afternoon....bank on it....I'll revise my earlier call of the lowest pressure attained to near 930mb....This system is so very nicely "round" at the surface....and now the shear is going bye bye....just in time for diurnal max. and nice bathwater!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ground Scouring Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 The 06Z GFS ensemble mean shows a significant eastward shift, keeping Joaquin east of the U.S. and out to sea...it's a bit early, but I'm thinking that this will end up as a significant synoptic-scale victory for the ECMWF suite. The first visible images show that the eye is practically right over Samana Cay. San Salvador Island, some ~80 mi to the northwest, earlier reported sustained winds of 74 kt with gusts to 96 kt...very impressive, considering the distance. With dry air now fully mixed out and a solid, persistent ring of cold cloud tops enclosing the eye, I expect significant strengthening once the eye clears out later today. Probably 125-130 kt (perhaps 135 kt) is reasonable. Edit: Thanks to billgwx for the correction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billgwx Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 The 00Z GFS ensemble mean shows a significant eastward shift, keeping Joaquin east of the U.S. and out to sea...it's a bit early, but I'm thinking that this will end up as a significant synoptic-scale victory for the ECMWF suite. Not totally there yet but you can see quite the out-to-sea cluster of tracks now. Let's see now if it continues through multiple cycles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billgwx Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Ah maybe you meant the 06Z GEFS: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billgwx Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 All the while the 06Z HWRF and GFDL continue to take aim on eastern NC/VA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Satellite presentation continues to improve as J makes another small dive southwest. Eye showing up again on IR, very cold cloud tops wrapping around the western flank (which had been a problem through last night). Looking quite symmetrical. Strengthening ongoing IMO. We'll see what recon finds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JasonOH Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Recon flight just showed a 125-130kt 10s surface wind. I bet we get a cat 4 possibly next update. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ground Scouring Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Pine Cay in the Turks and Caicos Islands has been reporting sustained, low-end TS winds of ~35-40 kt for several hours overnight and currently. I don't know the elevation of the anemometer, but the Turks and Caicos are not under any TS Watches or Warnings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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