Quincy Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 234730 2358N 07258W 6972 02735 9493 +193 +083 050010 018 025 001 03235230 2345N 07245W 7018 02778 9706 +128 //// 227096 113 096 043 01 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach McGuirk Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 234730 2358N 07258W 6972 02735 9493 +193 +083 050010 018 025 001 03235230 2345N 07245W 7018 02778 9706 +128 //// 227096 113 096 043 01 It'll probably be a strong cat 3, low cat 4 before it turns north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 As this loop is not a live product the rapid increase in the winds tonight was probably a result of the inner core finally establishing itself. The Bahamas are going to get smoked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derecho! Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Well, shear has been around 20 kts all day, and just recently dropped a bit to ~15 kts, according to CIMSS analysis. The atmosphere instability has given it the oomph factor to gradually strengthen today, and as soon as the shear relaxed a bit, it appears to be in a RIC. Per the 5PM discussion (I'd noticed this before, wish I'd mentioned earlier this afternoon so I looked smart) there was some 400 mb northerly shear measured by the G-IV; you could see this most of the day, looked like the 200 mb outflow on the North side was undercut some. Not that it ended up hurting the storm much. Might have prevented an even crazier RI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Despite the NHC advisory, we definitely have a Major Hurricane on our hands already. The Bahamas are going to get plastered at the very least, and possibly somewhere along the EC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 As this loop is not a live product the rapid increase in the winds tonight was probably a result of the inner core finally establishing itself. The Bahamas are going to get smoked. It had a core all along, the loop looks like the low and mid level centers are becoming collocated and an eye is forming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 00z SHIPS was initialized with an initial intensity of 100kt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Cat. 4 by tomorrow afternoon....bank on it....I'll revise my earlier call of the lowest pressure attained to near 930mb....This system is so very nicely "round" at the surface....and now the shear is going bye bye....just in time for diurnal max. and nice bathwater!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 All 00Z Models initialized at ~100kts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Marusak Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Did anyone see the 18z NAM, it's confused rather to send it into the NC Coast or out to sea so it splits the difference! hahaha. the NAM to me is useless until this storm has departed. the model had major problems yesterday with its ocean interface to the point it crashed at t+57. and the pressure analysis isn't even close to reality the last several runs. it should have been able to handle this, but didn't. until it shows me something close to reality, not even worth looking at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Cat. 4 by tomorrow afternoon....bank on it....I'll revise my earlier call of the lowest pressure attained to near 930mb....This system is so very nicely "round" at the surface....and now the shear is going bye bye....just in time for diurnal max. and nice bathwater!! In your opinion, is the EURO analysis flawed? My weenie hunch is that the EURO may not be appropriately incorporating the mid-hemisphere trough in the SE U.S. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 1, 2015 Author Share Posted October 1, 2015 OFCI going with Cat 4 intensity. That should cause nice media hype. Sent from my SM-G925V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 1, 2015 Author Share Posted October 1, 2015 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 39% is 3.3 times the sample mean(11.9%)Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 35% is 4.6 times the sample mean( 7.6%)Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 27% is 5.8 times the sample mean( 4.6%)Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Recon appears to be having some communication problems, as it has been half an hour since the last set of observations Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
negative-nao Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Pinwheel is showing up nicely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 In your opinion, is the EURO analysis flawed? My weenie hunch is that the EURO may not be appropriately incorporating the mid-hemisphere trough in the SE U.S. I think the message being sent by the models (ie the tremendous T+84 and beyond divergence) is that this setup is SO sensitive to even the slightest perturbations in ANY of the mid/upper level features that are going to come into play. Models are tools....numerical tools....everything is math....everything! ...and with that said, this may be a situation where we learn about the models down the road, more than in other situations....thus making them more valuable to us. That said, Euro MAY be orienting the trough too positively, relative to the location of the storm....I'd lean, ever so slightly with the majority of the models, but am not willing as of yet to plot any type of track beyond 2 days.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ground Scouring Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 If Joaquin were, by virtue of its large size, be able to phase more fully with the cutoff low via binary interaction, then I see no reason why it might not be a low-end major hurricane (~100 kt) at landfall if it were to track into eastern NC. SST anomalies off the Southeast coast have been running several degrees above average this summer and very high oceanic heat content has been concentrated in the Gulf Stream.As Joaquin accelerates north, its faster movement should offset the effects of increasing shear somewhat. Plus, we will likely be dealing with a moderate to strong Category 4 hurricane over the northeastern Bahamas (120-125 kt), based on current intensification trends and the favorable outflow pattern that is to develop in a day and a half or two. That means an even more intense system to deal with as it interacts with the cutoff.Someone on Twitter brought up a good point: that the ECMWF ensembles, while showing a very intense Joaquin, taking it out to sea show a smaller system (as does the deterministic run) than is actually the case. While the southwesterly movement and deeper intensity would favor, relative to the trough axis, a sharper northeast curve, the larger size of Joaquin might well compensate and allow more interaction with the trough. Honestly, I just don't see how ex-Ida will affect the track of Joaquin. The main factors will be location/intensity in one and a half to two days, how fast the cutoff moves/develops, and how large of a system Joaquin becomes. Based on the overall size of the system, I am becoming a bit more concerned that the ECMWF ensembles may bust, contrary to my original expectations, though I still am unwilling to change my bets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach McGuirk Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 It'll be a Cat 4 Thursday and we still don't know where it will go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 I think the message being sent by the models (ie the tremendous T+84 and beyond divergence) is that this setup is SO sensitive to even the slightest perturbations in ANY of the mid/upper level features that are going to come into play. Models are tools....numerical tools....everything is math....everything! ...and with that said, this may be a situation where we learn about the models down the road, more than in other situations....thus making them more valuable to us. That said, Euro MAY be orienting the trough too positively, relative to the location of the storm....I'd lean, ever so slightly with the majority of the models, but am not willing as of yet to plot any type of track beyond 2 days.... Nice discussion. It is apparent that the disciplined meteorologists here don't expand a deterministic forecast beyond the strength of the unbiased data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Figures the aircraft would have severe communication problems this evening. Hopefully they're utilizing a sat phone or VHF communications to get some data back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 1, 2015 Author Share Posted October 1, 2015 Gravity waves are evident on the NW side of the the convection. Probably some extreme turbulence if the plane is still in there. Also a ton of lightning being recorded, so I wouldn't be surprised if coms went down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calm_days Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 It'll be a Cat 4 Thursday and we still don't know where it will go. In your opinion, is the EURO analysis flawed? My weenie hunch is that the EURO may not be appropriately incorporating the mid-hemisphere trough in the SE U.S. This could possibly be one of the more interesting systems we've seen in a few years. NHC still has a vast amount of uncertainty with this one. Here is a satellite loop that goes all the way back to Sept 22nd as the large retrograde low approached the western Atlantic, all the way up to today. http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/wxloop.cgi?wv_central+/200h It is a bit daunting but also helps to see that the conditions have been unusual lately, as Coach McGuirk pointed out earlier in the thread, very cluttered. This cyclone seems to have generated more out of friction between various lows and troughs, yet is now outwardly behaving like a traditional tropical cyclone. However the models may not be running certain variables, including those that haven't been studied enough due to infrequent conditions allowing those conditions to be studied and turned into codes in the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovingGulfLows Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Cat 3 now. I wonder if this can get up to possibly Cat 5? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach McGuirk Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 I like the Euro. It sends the the hurricane out to sea by the cold front.http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/wv-animated.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Whoa, the 00z GFS just caved to the Euro's idea of taking Joaquin northeast into the Bermuda weakness. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Whoa, the 00z GFS just caved to the Euro's idea of taking Joaquin northeast into the Bermuda weakness. 0Z GFS initialized at Joaquin 989 MB versus the ~952 MB. The whole run is garbage and pretty much useless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 I think it might get flung back into the coast on the GFS...just much farther north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Maybe the Euro was onto something all along? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Hr 84,90,96 starts the hard left hander Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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