wxmx Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 The forecast shows a TS towards DCA...the sensible weather would be similar with a track towards NC, a bit windy and lots of rain. It would be way different if we were expecting a Cat 2 or similar and/or flood vs no flood. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Akeem the African Dream Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 The 12Z GFS is getting uncomfortably close to South Florida. Hopefully that bit of a South and west trend in the models discontinues soon. Still hundreds of miles away on that run. Still a ways to go before I would consider it uncomfortably close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortex95 Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 The forecast shows a TS towards DCA...the sensible weather would be similar with a track towards NC, a bit windy and lots of rain. It would be way different if we were expecting a Cat 2 or similar and/or flood vs no flood. I was thinking along the lines of a storm surge in Chesapeake Bay. A center track that goes into the Outer Banks and then turns W or SW from there is not the same as a center track driving NW with it paralleling just SW of Chesapeake Bay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 The forecast shows a TS towards DCA...the sensible weather would be similar with a track towards NC, a bit windy and lots of rain. It would be way different if we were expecting a Cat 2 or similar and/or flood vs no flood. You also have to account for the push of water up the Chesapeake and in the tributaries from the accumulated energy of a previously major hurricane. Wind and rain might not be the primary concerns. Obviously depends on the center track and how much it degrades as it gains latitude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Still hundreds of miles away on that run. Still a ways to go before I would consider it uncomfortably close. Nassau is not "hundreds" of miles away from Florida. It's 179 miles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 It looks like the southward movement might be stopping for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Eye is clearing out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormsfury Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Eye is clearing out. GOES23152015273J3rfxa.jpg The dreaded pinwheel eye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 18z HWRF and GFDL have similar tracks/intensity. Borderline cat 3/4 between Wilmington and Morehead City Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CanadianGuy Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 I wouldn't be surprised if Joaquin became a Category 2 hurricane soon. The latest recon flight is showing a storm that is quite a bit stronger than it was earlier this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 700mb extrap pressure is 949.3mb, 97kt flight level/88kt SFMR NW quad, 102kt SFMR SE quad (not to peak Flight level winds in SE quad yet) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 The pressure dropped more than I expected.... nearly 20 mb since the sunrise recon pass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 The dreaded pinwheel eye. Pinwheel or pinhole? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 90kt/954mb with the 8pm advisory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Holy crap 20 mph increase in 3 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Clearly Joaquin is on its way to becoming a category 3 hurricane. I am pretty confident it reaches category 4 eventually. Upper level dynamics are not perfect yet, but an outflow channel to the NW has yet to establish itself. Really, the biggest inhibitor at this point is stationary upwelling and inevitable shear in a few days based on its position with respect to upper-level flow aloft. Sent from my LG G4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 113kt peak flight level winds SE quad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 1, 2015 Author Share Posted October 1, 2015 The NE quad winds are likely stronger, so we're probably dealing with a major hurricane at this point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Clearly Joaquin is on its way to becoming a category 3 hurricane. I am pretty confident it reaches category 4 eventually. Upper level dynamics are not perfect yet, but an outflow channel to the NW has yet to establish itself. Really, the biggest inhibitor at this point is stationary upwelling and inevitable shear in a few days based on its position with respect to upper-level flow aloft. Sent from my LG G4. Well, shear has been around 20 kts all day, and just recently dropped a bit to ~15 kts, according to CIMSS analysis. The atmosphere instability has given it the oomph factor to gradually strengthen today, and as soon as the shear relaxed a bit, it appears to be in a RIC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bdgwx Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Once again the 18Z GFDL (and I suspect the HWRF will show the same) is indicating that the trough will negatively tilt as the downstream jet streak back builds and curves anti-cyclonically putting the cyclone in a favorable position relative to the UL features with warm SSTs and modest deep layer shear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CanadianGuy Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 We got a category 2 hurricane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Yep. 105 mph sustained now...deepening much faster than originally expected. One to watch for certain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 1, 2015 Author Share Posted October 1, 2015 The dreaded pinwheel eye. Its "pinhole" lol And no, Joaquin does not have a pinhole eye Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormsfury Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Pinwheel or pinhole? Pinhole. Thanks for the correction. Thought the 8 pm would come in stronger but that's much stronger than I expected. At this rate, Joaquin will be major by daybreak, if not sooner and a nightmare for the Bahamas with a rapidly deepening storm in their neighborhood. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormsfury Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Its "pinhole" lol And no, Joaquin does not have a pinhole eye It did earlier (wxmx's image from previous page) but changes nothing that Joaquin is becoming a beast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Well, shear has been around 20 kts all day, and just recently dropped a bit to ~15 kts, according to CIMSS analysis. The atmosphere instability has given it the oomph factor to gradually strengthen today, and as soon as the shear relaxed a bit, it appears to be in a RIC.Agreed. The upper level dynamics should be perfect tomorrow. I am referring to the eventual upstream shear aloft as it interacts with the tilted trough in a few days. At first, this will establish an amazing outflow channel to the NW, which will aid intensification. However, inevitably, that same 250mb channel will create a sheared environment over the storm as it moves north or approaches the coast. That's just part of the future setup we're considering. Though, at that point, we're dealing with a large system and an eventual phase if the majority operational models win out.Sent from my LG G4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 The winds are likely catching up to the pressure. There can often be a delay when you're dealing with such a large cyclone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 000 URNT12 KNHC 010015 VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL112015 A. 30/23:48:10Z B. 23 deg 56 min N 072 deg 56 min W C. 700 mb 2698 m D. 79 kt E. 327 deg 17 nm F. 058 deg 97 kt G. 327 deg 12 nm H. 952 mb I. 16 C / 3052 m J. 20 C / 3040 m K. 8 C / NA L. CLOSED M. C30 N. 12345 / 7 O. 0.02 / 2 nm P. AF309 0511A JOAQUIN OB 10 MAX OUTBOUND AND MAX FL WIND 113 KT 135 / 15 NM 23:52:30Z CNTR DROPSONDE SFC WIND 100 / 13 KT ; Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Akeem the African Dream Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Nassau is not "hundreds" of miles away from Florida. It's 179 miles. Nassau is less than 200 miles east of Florida but the GFS still had the storm east of Nassau hence hundreds of miles east of Florida. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionWeatherWx Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Joaquin has seemed to move Southeast from the 5pm update. Just noise? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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