Hurricane Joaquin

[hawkeye_wx]

Latest recon pass suggests the max wind is up to 80 mph, but the pressure is about the same as the last pass.  It continues to move sw as the Euro predicted.

[AJF0602]

Also to note is this pass the vortex message states the eye is closed off where as the first pass it was open to the north.

[Superstorm93]

Warm spot showing up 

 

[IsentropicLift]

[vortex95]

NHC now has the disturbance E of Joaquin up to a 70% chance of becoming a TD in

the next 5 days.  It is the remains of Ida, but it also interacted with a baroclinic

trough days ago.  What is interesting is that at 250 mb by 72 hr on the 06z GFS,

a two contoured closed low develops here (weakens after in the next 24 hour

period). Look at the stiff NW wind at this level not far E of Joaquin at 72 hours.  Yes,

it might not feel this, but this is a potential track influence.  If this upper low persists

longer and/or moves/extends more NW, Joaquin's track N could be interrupted/affected.

 

The point is it isn't as straightforward with just big E Coast trough to

pick the hurricane up for a straight shot N or NW with the strong ridge

to the E to keep it from escaping out.   We have this fairly significant 250

low under the ridge axis just E of the hurricane!  Perhaps this explains

the 00z ECMWF op track and the spread in the 06z GFS ensembles.

 

 

[LakeEffectKing]

NHC now calling for a MH in 72 hours.....I say sooner...way sooner....

[Superstorm93]

NHC now calling for a MH in 72 hours.....I say sooner...way sooner....

 

I'd expect pressures to be in the low 960's by the time recon gets back in tonight. 

 

Looks beautiful

 

[Superstorm93]

From 8:57 am 

 

[Ground Scouring]

The collapse of convection over the western semicircle since ~12Z clearly shows the influence of drier low- to mid-level air wrapping around from the north. So long as the dry air is in place, hindering the further development of the inner core, then the intensification we have seen thus far is likely to level off. The system will probably need another day to fully mix out the dry air, by which time the low-level ridging to its southwest should start to weaken. That weakening trend should allow the formation of a deeper moist inflow from the Caribbean and cut off some of the dry air infiltrating from the north. Once the dry air diminishes, I fully expect rapid intensification, given what we've already seen under less-than-ideal conditions.

[LakeEffectKing]

Very preliminary thought based on future conditions for Joaquin....I think he maxes out at 945ish pressure, and touches Cat. 4 status in a day or so....as for track...way too much uncertainty....especially with the potential redevelopment of Ida....

[bdgwx]

There is definitely no shortage of dynamic complexity to Joaquin. In one graphic you can see how it could begin interacting with both the UL trough and the resurrected Ida...at least according to the HWRF that is.

 

[csnavywx]

....By tomorrow evening or so, I bet we have a MH on our hands....

Looking like a damn good call at this point.

[csnavywx]

The collapse of convection over the western semicircle since ~12Z clearly shows the influence of drier low- to mid-level air wrapping around from the north. So long as the dry air is in place, hindering the further development of the inner core, then the intensification we have seen thus far is likely to level off. The system will probably need another day to fully mix out the dry air, by which time the low-level ridging to its southwest should start to weaken. That weakening trend should allow the formation of a deeper moist inflow from the Caribbean and cut off some of the dry air infiltrating from the north. Once the dry air diminishes, I fully expect rapid intensification, given what we've already seen under less-than-ideal conditions.

Or simply mesoscale subsidence from nearby convective bursts. There's a well defined eye on microwave and it's now started to show up on visible.

[IsentropicLift]

952mb by 00z tonight. I believe it.

 

[billgwx]

That thing looks like Hugo at landfall with those multiple outflow channels!

 

One of the reasons the operational 00Z ECMWF is out to sea is not only does it interact with Ida remnants, they do a Fujiwara around each other, with Joaquin out to sea and the Ida remnants to the NC coast by 12Z Sunday. The model has done this in more than one run.

 

There is definitely no shortage of dynamic complexity to Joaquin. In one graphic you can see how it could begin interacting with both the UL trough and the resurrected Ida...at least according to the HWRF that is.

 

[Derecho!]

The new UKMET is further south as well - heads to Hatteras, then shoves inland due WSW and just sits there.

 

 

 

[wxmx]

As alluded in my previous post, the big question is the Atlantic trough pinching off a cutoff low, ventilating the remnants of Ida and possibly affecting steering currents for Joaquin. The Euro gives greater influence to this feature, and I don't think it's because the more southwestern position of Joaquin in it's forecast, as the GFS has trended further SW in the 12z run and it gives the cutoff low in the SE CONUS much more influence. So unless we see a quicker retrogression from said Atlantic ULL, my line of thinking is that the Euro is going to burn badly with its current Joaquin's forecast.

 

Also, I think San Salvador Island will be ground zero for an intensifying MH, and North Carolina will have a decent hurricane landfall, with the major story being the tremendous rainfall area along all the east coast.

[Superstorm93]

[PSUBlizzicane2007]

The 12Z GFS is getting uncomfortably close to South Florida. Hopefully that bit of a South and west trend in the models discontinues soon.

[Hoosier]

12z ECMWF looks like it's going to be an out to sea solution again.  This would be a remarkable success for the model if it ends up being correct.

[Windspeed]

The Euro op continues its persistence in sliding the amplified trough further east and cutting a low off the Southeast coast. This is the biggest influence in the OTS solution and marginal difference between the other operational models, not excluding some of Euro ensembles. That essentially creates a mid-level steering flow out of the SW towards Bermuda and blocks the US from landfall versus the opposing solution of channeled SE flow and phase with a tilted trough further west and inland. As of right now it is the minority in this OTS solution, aside from varying ensemble members of the other globals. A lot of focus is on ex-Ida, but to my eyes, the evolution and position of where the trough pinches off is what will have to be monitored closely.

[hawkeye_wx]

This appears to be the energy that the Euro shows pulling Joaquin out to sea.  The Euro has this energy more potent and has Joaquin slower to lift out of the Bahamas, so this energy grabs Joaquin.  The GFS has this energy weaker and Joaquin faster to lift north out of the Bahamas, so the southeast US energy grabs Joaquin.

 

[Quincy]

Climo tracks of all September and October Category 1/2 hurricanes within 50 nautical miles of Joaquin, three out of five storms curved out to sea and one took a Hugo-esque track into South Carolina. The Florida track likely falls outside the realm of realistic possibilities here:

[sarcean]

I do not think those previous tracks are relevant considering there are alot of dynamic forces in play and that three of the ones you are comparing it too are from the 1800s when records are very unreliable. Not a single hurricane since the age of satellites.

[Quincy]

NHC shifted somewhat west with the 5 p.m. EDT cone.

 

For frame of reference, it brings the center to the North Carolina outer banks as a category 2 hurricane Sunday afternoon and then up the Chesapeake.

[vortex95]

NHC seemed to split the difference for the models the 21z track.  Thing is, none of these 12z global

models...GFS/GEM/NAVGEM/UKMET/JMA...show a center track to DCA.  These five models have it going

inland over NC or SC and turning W or SW after landfall.  The 12z HWRF and GFDL do the same.  The 12z

ECMWF shows it staying well out to sea.  Just saying that the track to DCA is somewhat misleading.  I realize

they say the track confidence is low, but a lot of people just look at the track forecast graphic and run with that. 

DCA being a big population center and a track like that likely putting a decent storm surge up Chesapeake Bay,

this is significant!

 

If you were in DCA as forecaster, what would you say?  "this is the official track, but I don't think it is going
to happen??"  This is one case having a single deterministic forecast track really does not work.  I don't think I

have  ever seen such a dichotomy between models like this for a TC close to the East Coast...well, one (ECMWF)

vs. all others!

[Hoosier]

 

NHC seemed to split the difference for the models the 21z track.  Thing is, none of these 12z global

models...GFS/GEM/NAVGEM/UKMET/JMA...show a center track to DCA.  These five models have it going

inland over NC or SC and turning W or SW after landfall.  The 12z HWRF and GFDL do the same.  The 12z

ECMWF shows it staying well out to sea.  Just saying that the track to DCA is somewhat misleading.  I realize

they say the track confidence is low, but a lot of people just look at the track forecast graphic and run with that. 

DCA being a big population center and a track like that likely putting a decent storm surge up Chesapeake Bay,

this is significant!

 

If you were in DCA as forecaster, what would you say?  "this is the official track, but I don't think it is going

to happen??"  This is one case having a single deterministic forecast track really does not work.  I don't think I

have  ever seen such a dichotomy between models like this for a TC close to the East Coast...well, one (ECMWF)

vs. all others!

 

 

 

NHC is really in a no-win situation with this.  Given the vast majority of models showing US landfall, it'd be reckless to go all-in with the Euro and depict Joaquin going out to sea.  It does seem like there's a growing possibility of an either/or outcome...either landfall in the Carolinas or out to sea.  I liked their "key messages" writeup at the end of the discussion, but hopefully it doesn't fall on deaf ears.

[hawkeye_wx]

Joaquin is consistently firing deep convection on the east side of the center, but it's still having trouble keeping it going once it wraps around to the west side.

[Jim Marusak]

NHC is really in a no-win situation with this.  Given the vast majority of models showing US landfall, it'd be reckless to go all-in with the Euro and depict Joaquin going out to sea.  It does seem like there's a growing possibility of an either/or outcome...either landfall in the Carolinas or out to sea.  I liked their "key messages" writeup at the end of the discussion, but hopefully it doesn't fall on deaf ears.

well, let's hope the mets there in DC, Baltimore, DelMarva, Richmond, Norfolk/Newport News, NJ, Philly, NYC, Harrisburg/Reading, Wilkes Barre-Scranton, eastern NC, central NC, Charlotte, Columbia, Hilton Head, Greenville/Spartanburg, and Myrtle Beach markets explain this situation properly. I agree that the key messages in the latest NHC public advisory were spot on. But the local mets have to do the job as well on this situation. I have a friend in the Baltimore market that's a newsperson on a big radio station there, that i'll contact and ask him when he's off the air to confirm the message that his station's met is being quite detailed about all of this. hopefully everyone here who knows mets in the markets closer to them makes sure that the on-air people there explain this properly.

[vortex95]

NHC is really in a no-win situation with this.  Given the vast majority of models showing US landfall, it'd be reckless to go all-in with the Euro and depict Joaquin going out to sea.  It does seem like there's a growing possibility of an either/or outcome...either landfall in the Carolinas or out to sea.  I liked their "key messages" writeup at the end of the discussion, but hopefully it doesn't fall on deaf ears.

 

I completely agree about a no-win situation at this point in time, but the issue remains.  In this case, overwhelming model consensus shows a track no further N that the NC/VA border, staying well S of DCA, so going with this track is not unreasonable.  Going with the ECMWF track right now I would not do b/c it is one against many.  Yes, consensus is not always the answer, but what else do you really have to go by here?  It's hard to go against so many models, and when there is no model track shown that explicitly moves the TC to DCA here?

I agree there is no easy answer here though.

 

EDIT:  I forgot to say that I do believe the 12z ECMWF track is possible.  I think Joaquin has very little room here either way to move for big differences later on.  Gets too far S&W, and it does not get boldily picked up by the trough and never makes a CONUS landfall.  Stays a bit further N or the trough digs just a little sharper SE, Joaquin gets competely caught and pulled back in to NC/SC.  Very touch and go here!