Hurricane Joaquin

[Windspeed]

Comparison between the 00Z and 12Z ECMWF ensembles shows more spread among the individual members and less of a phase within the 12Z guidance. The 12Z suite also shows less of a sharp northwest bend with many members, with more showing a general north movement off the East Coast than at 00Z. So there is a definite eastward trend within the widening spread/uncertainty, further supporting my contention that a more southerly/deeper storm within the short term would more likely miss the East Coast.

 

But keep in mind, the 00z ECMWF ensemble spread may decrease if 00z output of the ECMWF comes roaring back west tonight. If it does remain east and OTS, I'd imagine some of the other majors would also ease off their phase/coast-hugging solutions since they were ingested and initialized with the same Gulfstream-IV data, intensity and position from earlier this evening. I'll stay awake to see what the 00z GFS does, but I've got an early morning so no 2am Euro for me.

[Boston Bulldog]

It looks as though the MLC has made a westward jump over towards the LLC. Could this explain the (possibly temporary) warming of intense convection within the CDO? 

 

Either way if this thing just got stacked...buckle up.

[Superstorm93]

It looks as though the MLC has made a westward jump over towards the LLC. Could this explain the (possibly temporary) warming of intense convection within the CDO? 

 

Either way if this thing just got stacked...buckle up.

 

The cloud pattern is taking on a coma head shape just like Katrina did before its landfall in SFL

 

The warming has nothing to do with its current intensity. 

 

[Windspeed]

000
WTNT41 KNHC 300254
TCDAT1

TROPICAL STORM JOAQUIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015
1100 PM EDT TUE SEP 29 2015

The cloud pattern of Joaquin has continued to become better
organized this evening. The low-level center is located within the
northwestern portion of the deep convection and the outflow has
continued to expand over the northern semicircle, which suggests
that the shear continues to decrease. The latest satellite
intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB are T3.5 or 55 kt on the
Dvorak scale. Based on the earlier reconnaissance aircraft data and
the continued increase in organization this evening, the initial
wind speed has been raised to 60 kt. Joaquin is forecast to be over
warm water and in an increasingly favorable upper-level wind pattern
during the next day or so. These conditions favor intensification
and the NHC forecast calls for Joaquin to become a hurricane within
the next 12 hours. The upper-level winds are shown by the global
models to become quite conducive for strengthening by 36 hours as an
upper-level anticyclone builds over the system, and additional
strengthening is anticipated. The new NHC forecast is a bit
higher than the previous advisory, and is close to the IVCN
intensity consensus aid. It should be noted, that the UKMET, GFS,
and ECMWF models all significantly deepen Joaquin during the next
few days, and the NHC forecast could be somewhat conservative.

Joaquin is moving west-southwestward at about 5 kt. This general
motion is forecast to continue during the next 24-36 hours while the
cyclone remains to the southwest of a weak mid-level ridge. During
this time, the center of Joaquin is forecast to move near or over
portions of the Central Bahamas. After 48 hours, a deepening mid-
to upper-level trough over the southeastern United States is
expected to cause a turn toward the north or north-northeast with an
increase in forward speed. There remains large spread in the
guidance at days 4 and 5, with the ECMWF showing a northeastward
motion toward Bermuda. Meanwhile, the 18Z GFS shifted significantly
westward and is close to the UKMET and HWRF, which are along the
western edge of the guidance envelope. The NHC track has been
shifted westward, but it is not as far west as the multi-model
consensus. The new track is fairly close to the ECMWF-Ensemble Mean.

The government of the Bahamas has issued a Hurricane Watch for the
Central Bahamas. Additional watches or warnings may be required
early Wednesday.

At this time it is very hard to gauge the long-range potential
impacts of Joaquin in the United States. The environmental steering
currents are complex and are not being handled in a consistent
manner by the forecast models. A wide range of outcomes are
possible and it is simply too soon to say what impacts, if any,
Joaquin will have on the United States.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/0300Z 25.8N 71.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 30/1200Z 25.5N 72.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 01/0000Z 25.2N 73.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 01/1200Z 24.8N 74.1W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 02/0000Z 24.9N 74.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 03/0000Z 26.7N 74.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 04/0000Z 31.3N 72.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 05/0000Z 35.5N 72.0W 80 KT 90 MPH

$
Forecaster Brown

[Superstorm93]

 

 

The upper-level winds are shown by the global

models to become quite conducive for strengthening by 36 hours as an

upper-level anticyclone builds over the system, and additional

strengthening is anticipated. The new NHC forecast is a bit

higher than the previous advisory, and is close to the IVCN

intensity consensus aid. It should be noted, that the UKMET, GFS,

and ECMWF models all significantly deepen Joaquin during the next

few days, and the NHC forecast could be somewhat conservative.

[BuffaloWeather]

 

 

 

The upper-level winds are shown by the global

models to become quite conducive for strengthening by 36 hours as an

upper-level anticyclone builds over the system, and additional

strengthening is anticipated. The new NHC forecast is a bit

higher than the previous advisory, and is close to the IVCN

intensity consensus aid. It should be noted, that the UKMET, GFS,

and ECMWF models all significantly deepen Joaquin during the next

few days, and the NHC forecast could be somewhat conservative.

 

 

Wow, it's definitely getting serious. Cat 2 conservative...

 

It should be noted, that the UKMET, GFS,

and ECMWF models all significantly deepen Joaquin during the next

few days, and the NHC forecast could be somewhat conservative.

 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/0300Z 25.8N 71.7W 60 KT 70 MPH

12H 30/1200Z 25.5N 72.4W 70 KT 80 MPH

24H 01/0000Z 25.2N 73.3W 75 KT 85 MPH

36H 01/1200Z 24.8N 74.1W 80 KT 90 MPH

48H 02/0000Z 24.9N 74.5W 85 KT 100 MPH

72H 03/0000Z 26.7N 74.0W 90 KT 105 MPH

96H 04/0000Z 31.3N 72.5W 85 KT 100 MPH

120H 05/0000Z 35.5N 72.0W 80 KT 90 MPH

[Windspeed]

The 00z GFS still captures Joaquin:

 

[TalcottWx]

Reminds me of 12z euro on 09/28

[Windspeed]

Fully phased and near Roanoke/Blue Ridge Mountains at 120 before lifting off to the northeast.

[ezweather]

I can't believe how good it looks on IR tonight.  Just amazing... Here we are in a strong El Nino season. Just amazing turn of events.. 

[Superstorm93]

I can't believe how good it looks on IR tonight. Just amazing... Here we are in a strong El Nino season. Just amazing turn of events..

Something may try to pop in the next few hours.

Sent from my SM-G925V using Tapatalk

[BuffaloWeather]

Eyewall starting to form.

 

[tmagan]

Does look like it is mixing out some dry air on its western side.

[negative-nao]

Dry air intrusion on the south western flank ?

 

[Thundersnow12]

Euro looks to have similar track so far as 12z run but stronger..

970mb at 24hr then 955mb at 48hr

[TalcottWx]

Could have serious impacts to Turks and Caicos

[vortex95]

First, one thing for the large perspective.  Joaquin is a home grown TC (western Atlantic not the in deep

tropics).   This is what is to be expected in a strong El Nino year.

 

The most intense system for sustained winds that formed in the general area of Joaquin (southwestern Atlantic

N of 25 deg latitude...i.e. outside the tropics) I believe is Diana from Sep 1984.  Max sustained winds reached

130 mph (min pres 949 mb) while is was just offshore SE of Wilmington NC (33.9N/-77.7W).

 

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/1984/DIANA/track.gif

 

 

For Joaquin's future track?

 

I think a lot depends on what the developing disturbance E of Joaquin (ex-Ida) might do. 

Fujiwhara effect could occur.  If the other system gets reasonably strong (say a 50 kt TS)

and moves close enough to get within Fujiwhara range of Joaquin, that could pull Joaquin more

E or slow/stall its trek N or NW for a time.  It highly conditional here, and yes, even more complex

than Sandy.   Once two TCs are within about 850 miles of each other.  The rotation effect

accelerates once within 400 mi of each other.  It appears that the two systems

will have no problem getting within 850 mi of each other, and might get within

400 mi.

 

Look at the example attached for the Fujiwhara effect.  In the NHEMI, the E system moves NW,

and the W system moves SE.  In this case the E system is much stronger.  We will have it the

other way around for Joaquin's case, but the point is a pull back to the NW from the baroclinic

trough may not be as 1-2-3 as it looks, and I think any deviation from a steady progression

of Joaquin N or NW for even a short period of time once the flow is established could mean the

difference between a Norfolk VA landfall, a Long Island one, or out to sea!

 

Additional factor that makes it not so much like Sandy?, yes, you have a strong negatively titled trough

over the Mid-Atlantic/SEUS moving in, but unlike Sandy, the CONUS upper air pattern is split flow with

the subtropical jet only, not a beast of a polar jet with lots of cold air with a full baroclinic phase that

will occur independent of Joaquin, so a wrap back in as sharp as Sandy may not be as likely.  A more

gradual arc N and then NW I see as a possible scenario now, or one that ends up with it out to sea

even!

 

I see the 00z GFDL has come around to the HWRF, but we are still talking 4 days away from

landfall near Norfolk if these verify.  Notice that the 00z ECMWF has it way out with no recurvature!

Yes, it is the only outlier, but given the ECMWF track record, you can't just summarily dismiss

it either.  I think that shows nothing is etched in stone yet, far from it!
 

[billgwx]

Well the 00Z ECMWF ensemble mean is joining the GFS camp, albeit 12 hours later:

[dan88]

700mb extrap pressure is 968.5mb, 65kt flight level/58kt SFMR in the NW quad. 

 

Edited to add  69kt flight/63kt SFMR SE quad.

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

Well the 00Z ECMWF ensemble mean is joining the GFS camp, albeit 12 hours later:

 

For our area beach erosion looks like a sure bet. You guys should highlight that 

[David Reimer]

Very impressive first pass this morning. Looks like around 970 MB for the pressure with a 69 knot FL peak in the southeast quad. Easily a hurricane now and I expect the 8 AM advisory to reflect that. I'm curious to see what recon finds in the NE Quad and how strong this hurricane has become overnight. 

[Voyager]

Fully phased and near Roanoke/Blue Ridge Mountains at 120 before lifting off to the northeast.

 

I've been keeping an eye on qpf totals since it appears to be the main threat for some of us up north of the M-D Line. Is that part of the reason Joaquin almost seems to rain himself out over Virgina, per some models, and not get much up into PA, NY, and NE?

[dan88]

000

URNT12 KNHC 301109

VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL112015

A. 30/10:48:10Z

B. 24 deg 56 min N

072 deg 08 min W

C. 700 mb 2849 m

D. 58 kt

E. 285 deg 17 nm

F. 021 deg 65 kt

G. 284 deg 15 nm

H. 972 mb

I. 13 C / 3057 m

J. 17 C / 3040 m

K. 5 C / NA

L. OPEN N

M. C48

N. 1234 / 7

O. 0.02 / 2.5 nm

P. AF300 0311A JOAQUIN OB 10

MAX OUTBOUND AND MAX FL WIND 69 KT 133 / 32 NM 10:56:30Z

CNTR DROPSONDE SFC WIND 065 / 11 KT

MAX FL TEMP 17 C 286 / 7 NM FROM FL CNTR

[hawkeye_wx]

NHC talks about how far southwest Joaquin makes it.  The HWRF, et al, has been underestimating the southward component from the get-go.  Every run moves this thing west along its current latitude(28, then 26.5, then 26, then 25), but it's now below 25 and still inching further south.  The Euro, on the other hand, has been showing Joaquin reaching at least 24N for at least a few runs.

 

It appears the wind has not yet caught up with the pressure.  972mb would typically be cat 2 territory.

[David Reimer]

NHC talks about how far southwest Joaquin makes it.  The HWRF, et al, has been underestimating the southward component from the get-go.  Every run moves this thing west along its current latitude(28, then 26.5, then 26, then 25), but it's now below 25 and still inching further south.  The Euro, on the other hand, has been showing Joaquin reaching at least 24N for at least a few runs.

 

It appears the wind has not yet caught up with the pressure.  972mb would typically be cat 2 territory.

 

The aircraft hasn't made it into the northeast quadrant yet. Thats where we'll find the highest winds (which will probably be a bit of an eyeshocker just like the pressure). 

[Superstorm93]

...JOAQUIN BECOMES A HURRICANE...

 

Recon will likely find some 70-75 knot winds in the NE quad. Dropsonde in the SE quad has some impressive winds 

 

[Superstorm93]

Red meat 

 

[Superstorm93]

Rapid Scan Operations for the next five days

 

 

 

*Topic: *GOES-13 (GOES-East) Standard CONUS RSO

*Date/Time**Issued: *September 30, 2015 0435Z

*Product(s) or Data Impacted:*GOES-13 (GOES-East) Imager Data and
Products**

*Date/Time of Initial Impact:*September 30, 2015 1014Z******

*Date/Time of Expected End:*October 05, 2015 1014Z****

*Length of Event:*120 hours*
*

*Requester: *University of Wisconsin

*Details/Specifics of Change:***Severe weather potential for the East
Coast due to Hurricane Joaquin. **There will be an increased number of
GOES-13 (GOES-East) Rapid Sectors, with decreased coverage for the
Southern Hemisphere and smaller Northern Hemisphere scans.*
*

[Derecho!]

Just a reminder that the GFS and UKMET beat the ECMWF pretty badly in the LANT last year at 120 hours....

 

 

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/verification/pdfs/Verification_2014.pdf

[wthrmn654]

Recon in progress