Amped Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 You can see on the Funktop that it does actually have a very well defined eye under the high clouds. If I couldn't see that I'd think it was a cat1 or 2. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/11L/html5-ft-short.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 You can see on the Funktop that it does actually have a very well defined eye under the high clouds. If I couldn't see that I'd think it was a cat1 or 2. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/11L/html5-ft-short.html I recall Hurricane Michelle in November 2001 had a similar satellite signature with 115 kt winds as it headed for Cuba. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach McGuirk Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Some of the Bahama Islands are getting destroyed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach McGuirk Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 This might get interesting.http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/wv-animated.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortex95 Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 This might get interesting. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/wv-animated.gif This WV loop sure is interesting! See the upper low E of Bermuda moving WSW quickly? Look at the 250 mb 00z GFS loop also attached. That upper low ends up due N of the hurricane and that I think is what messes things up for a curve back NW. Didn't have this with Sandy. Subtle things make *all* the difference sometimes! I also attached the 24 and 51 hr 00z GFS 250 mb for single panel reference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 This WV loop sure is interesting! See the upper low E of Bermuda moving WSW quickly? Look at the 250 mb 00z GFS loop also attached. That upper low ends up due N of the hurricane and that I think is what messes things up for a curve back NW. Didn't have this with Sandy. Subtle things make *all* the difference sometimes! I also attached the 24 and 51 hr 00z GFS 250 mb for single panel reference. Yep, a few pointed out yesterday that the ULL feature was the one providing the escape route. For some reason the GFS/others never saw it, or maybe they did but because they didn't anticipate the S drift/stall, and the ULL wasn't as strong as a factor earlier in the game. Timing is everything. The combination of the two steering mechanisms is providing dual outflow channels for Joaquin, so at least that's pretty darn cool. This stuff never seems to happen in the Atlantic! P.S. would not be surprised either if the latent heat feedback from Joaquin helped amplify the ULL to the east. Perhaps Euro also caught onto that more strongly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Some trend west for sure, but still seems like an out to sea storm. Nevertheless, the Bahamas are just getting pounded. Early morning video update on Joaquin. Some amazing satellite views of this severe hurricane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Are you sure? It would seem logical to me that with the proximity to the US and our territories in the Carribean that the NHC would be responsible for US citizens who are boating or living in the area. No, just, no. By that logic the NHC would.be issuing products for Japan because of US citizens who live and boat.near the island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Yep, a few pointed out yesterday that the ULL feature was the one providing the escape route. For some reason the GFS/others never saw it, or maybe they did but because they didn't anticipate the S drift/stall, and the ULL wasn't as strong as a factor earlier in the game. Timing is everything. The GFS and Euro both saw the upper level disturbance dropping in from the north Atlantic and passing west around Bermuda. The American models, et al, just never saw the southwest track like the Euro did. On the American models Joaquin was able to lift north away from the Bahamas sooner(was forecasted to happen yesterday), which allowed the storm to get pulled in by the southeast US low just before the Bermuda weakness arrived to supply the escape route. The Euro consistently dove Joaquin sw into the Bahamas, which delayed the turn north and allowed the weakness to move in first and open the door out to sea. This appears to be a day 1-3 failure of the American models vs the Euro, not a medium to long range failure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Looks like the media's completely abandoned ship with Joaquin. Still needs to be monitored closely. If any still remember , the nam was the first model to pick Sandy accurately....all the while , they were all bashing it like crazy here "clueless nam" , etc....and it ended up being right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheManWithNoFace Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Looks like some dry air to the north might start to wrap in. http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/sal/splitE/movies/splitE5new.html Northern erosion of the cloud shield seems to confirm this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Looks like the media's completely abandoned ship with Joaquin. Still needs to be monitored closely. If any still remember , the nam was the first model to pick Sandy accurately....all the while , they were all bashing it like crazy here "clueless nam" , etc....and it ended up being right. No. Euro from days out beyond NAM range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 No. Euro from days out beyond NAM range. GGEM had Sandy making landfall really far out too...like at least 7-8 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 No. Euro from days out beyond NAM range. There were several model runs ahead of that , where most models backed off (possibly ecm as well )..and only the nam still had a hit. I remember it vivdly.(since I was screaming nam , and was being flamed) If we can find a run/by/run analysis of back then , it will show it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bluescat1 Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 There were several model runs ahead of that , where most models backed off (possibly ecm as well )..and only the nam still had a hit. I remember it vivdly.(since I was screaming nam , and was being flamed) If we can find a run/by/run analysis of back then , it will show it. Maybe something here? https://www.google.com/search?q=Weather+model+Nam+hurricane+sandy&espv=2&biw=1920&bih=1081&tbm=isch&tbo=u&source=univ&sa=X&ved=0CCkQsARqFQoTCLGksaWqpMgCFYZ0PgodD8MKmQ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 The GFS and Euro both saw the upper level disturbance dropping in from the north Atlantic and passing west around Bermuda. The American models, et al, just never saw the southwest track like the Euro did. On the American models Joaquin was able to lift north away from the Bahamas sooner(was forecasted to happen yesterday), which allowed the storm to get pulled in by the southeast US low just before the Bermuda weakness arrived to supply the escape route. The Euro consistently dove Joaquin sw into the Bahamas, which delayed the turn north and allowed the weakness to move in first and open the door out to sea. This appears to be a day 1-3 failure of the American models vs the Euro, not a medium to long range failure. Thanks. That makes sense. The models tend to do poorly with southward moving systems (Wilma, Katrina, Hanna, Mitch, Karl, Isidore, Gustav are some that come to mind). Something about the Euro caught onto the S drift whereas the American models did not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 If it wasn't for the ULL to the Northeast helping to push it too far to the Southwest the last few days it would have been a slam dunk Carolina or VA landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Big story unfolding... Contact was lost with a large cargo container ship with 33 on board in the Bahamas that was under duress yesterday. Unfortunately, it ended up in the very wrong place at the wrong time near Crooked Island as the core has been pounding the location for over 24 hours. NHC/recon has been assisting the U.S. Coast Guard. Recon attempted to fly as low as possible in the eye to find the missing ship. So far there has been no success to locate or reestablish contact. I can only imagine the worst under those kind of prolonged violent winds and waves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calm_days Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 This might get interesting. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/wv-animated.gif Yes, movement of ULL systems, partially over the eastern CONUS but really over the whole country for at least a month has seemed atypical. Where will this one affecting the cyclone move, let alone how will it develop? It seems to have a large lower section as well that someone mentioned earlier in the thread, it is like a very deep trough wedged against the cluttered, retrograde flowing Atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted October 3, 2015 Share Posted October 3, 2015 Latest recon pass just measured 144 kts at flight level and 138 kts SFMR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HailMan06 Posted October 3, 2015 Share Posted October 3, 2015 Yes, movement of ULL systems, partially over the eastern CONUS but really over the whole country for at least a month has seemed atypical. Where will this one affecting the cyclone move, let alone how will it develop? It seems to have a large lower section as well that someone mentioned earlier in the thread, it is like a very deep trough wedged against the cluttered, retrograde flowing Atlantic. You can see how if Joaquin was further north he would be forced westward into the EC by the same trough that instead is booting him out to sea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted October 3, 2015 Share Posted October 3, 2015 Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)Transmitted: 3rd day of the month at 15:23ZAgency: United States Air ForceAircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF97-5304Storm Number & Year: 11 in 2015Storm Name: Joaquin (flight in the North Atlantic basin)Mission Number: 13Observation Number: 18A. Time of Center Fix: 3rd day of the month at 14:51:00ZB. Center Fix Coordinates: 25°51'N 71°48'W (25.85N 71.8W)C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,523m (8,278ft) at 700mbD. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 138kts (~ 158.8mph)E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 15 nautical miles (17 statute miles) to the SSE (147°) of center fixF. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 233° at 144kts (From the SW at ~ 165.7mph)G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 14 nautical miles (16 statute miles) to the SSE (148°) of center fixH. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 934mb (27.58 inHg) - ExtrapolatedI. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 13°C (55°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,044m (9,987ft)J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 17°C (63°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,046m (9,993ft)K. Dewpoint Temp & Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not AvailableL. Eye Character: Closed M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 20 nautical miles (23 statute miles)N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and TemperatureN. Fix Level: 700mbO. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical milesO. Meteorological Accuracy: 1.5 nautical milesRemarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded...Maximum Flight Level Wind: 144kts (~ 165.7mph) which was observed 14 nautical miles (16 statute miles) to the SSE (148°) from the flight level center at 14:46:30ZSea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: 700mbMaximum Flight Level Temp: 23°C (73°F) which was observed 9 nautical miles to the NW (313°) from the flight level centerRemarks Section - Additional Remarks...Eye sonde failed. Moderate turbulence inbound. Clear above in Center. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted October 3, 2015 Share Posted October 3, 2015 I don't know if I trust the SFMR enough to make it a Category 5 yet but it is easily a high end 4 right now. We'll see what the next mission brings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted October 3, 2015 Share Posted October 3, 2015 HURRICANE JOAQUIN SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 24NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL1120151200 PM EDT SAT OCT 03 2015...RECONNAISSANCE PLANE FINDS SEVERE HURRICANE JOAQUIN WITH 155 MPHWINDS...SUMMARY OF 1200 PM EDT...1600 UTC...INFORMATION-----------------------------------------------LOCATION...26.0N 71.6WABOUT 595 MI...960 KM SW OF BERMUDAABOUT 230 MI...365 KM NE OF SAN SALVADORMAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...155 MPH...250 KM/HPRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/HMINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...933 MB...27.55 INCHES ... DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK------------------------------At 1200 PM EDT (1600 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Joaquin was locatednear latitude 26.0 North, longitude 71.6 West. Joaquin is movingtoward the northeast near 16 mph (26 km/h), and this motion isexpected to continue through tonight with an increase in forwardspeed. A turn toward the north-northeast is forecast on Sunday. Onthe forecast track, the eye of Joaquin will continue to moveaway from the Bahamas today, and pass west of Bermuda on Sunday.However, a small deviation to the east of the forecast track wouldbring the core of the hurricane and stronger winds closer toBermuda.An Air Force Hurricane Hunter plane just indicated that the maximumsustained winds have increased to near 155 mph (250 km/h) withhigher gusts. Joaquin is a strong category 4 hurricane on theSaffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. A gradual weakening isstill anticipated during the next couple of days.Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) fromthe center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 205miles (335 km).The minimum central pressure recently reported by a reconnaissanceplane was 933 mb (27.55 inches). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted October 3, 2015 Share Posted October 3, 2015 Joaquin is now the strongest hurricane in the Atlantic basin since Hurricane Igor in 2010. Igor's highest surface winds and lowest central pressure was estimated to be 155 mph and 924 mb respectively. Joaquin still has a window of opportunity to surpass both this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortex95 Posted October 3, 2015 Share Posted October 3, 2015 With Joaquin at 135 kt now, I believe this makes it the strongest Atlantic hurricane to have its initial development outside the tropics (N of 25 degree latitude). It first became a TD at 27.5N. Former record holder...Hurricane Diana in Sep 1984 first formed at 28.5N and peaked at 115 kt. http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/1984/DIANA/track.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted October 3, 2015 Share Posted October 3, 2015 GGEM had Sandy making landfall really far out too...like at least 7-8 days. One run. Then it was ots for the next few days iirc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 4, 2015 Share Posted October 4, 2015 One run. Then it was ots for the next few days iirc. Pretty sure it was more than one. Oddly, I don't remember what it showed a bit closer in (say days 4-6) so I'll take your word for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted October 5, 2015 Share Posted October 5, 2015 Re: El Faro, pretty grim... On Monday morning, the Coast Guard here said it feared the worst: “We believe it sank in the last known position that we recorded on Thursday,” about 35 miles northeast of Crooked Islands, the Bahamas, Capt. Mark Fedor said. “We are still looking for survivors or any signs of life or any signs of that vessel.” Of the 33 crew members, no survivors have been found. One person was found dead inside a survival suit, which is meant to keep people afloat and protect them from hypothermia. Coast Guard personnel also spotted a container, a cargo door and carpets of plastic foam used to pack goods in containers. http://www.nytimes.com/2015/10/06/us/el-faro-missing-ship-hurricane-joaquin.html?_r=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted October 5, 2015 Share Posted October 5, 2015 I know which name is being retired this year... RIP to those who passed away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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