eurojosh Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 Anyone else stuck at hr 48 on the 18z NAM run? Yes, everyone - http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/prodstat_new/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 990mb, 65 kt the Idea of a CAT2 landfall on the DelMarva on Sunday night isn't that inconceivable now, even though I was laughing at it yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 Roanoke River. Still rising. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 TROPICAL STORM JOAQUIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015 ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 500 PM EDT TUE SEP 29 2015 The cloud pattern of the storm has become better organized during the day, with the low level center now embedded inside the northern edge of the main area of deep convection. Animation of cirrus motions suggest that upper-level outflow is becoming a little more prominent over the northern portion of the circulation, and this is consistent with decreasing northerly shear. Flight-level, dropsonde, and SFMR wind observations from an Air Force reconnaissance aircraft indicate that Joaquin has strengthened and the intensity is now estimated to be 55 kt. With a more favorable upper-level wind environment now expected to prevail, the official forecast calls for more strengthening than the previous advisories. Joaquin is expected to become a hurricane within 24 hours, with additional intensification likely thereafter. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the latest SHIPS model output. Fixes from the aircraft show a southward component of motion and the initial motion estimate is now 240/4 kt. Joaquin is currently south of the southwestern periphery of a weak mid-level ridge. The ECMWF model shows this ridging to the north of the tropical cyclone to be more prominent over the next few days than the other dynamical models. Consequently, the ECMWF takes Joaquin more to the west and southwest through 72 hours than any of the other available guidance. Later in the forecast period, there is a significant divergence in the track guidance. The HWRF and U.K. Met Office models forecast Joaquin to move over the east coast of the United States later in the period whereas the ECMWF and GFS keep the system well offshore. The official forecast lies between these possibilities and is similar to the latest Florida State University Superensemble solution. Interests in the Bahamas should monitor the progress of this storm. Watches or warnings may be issued for portions of these islands later this evening. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/2100Z 26.0N 71.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 30/0600Z 25.8N 71.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 30/1800Z 25.5N 72.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 01/0600Z 25.1N 73.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 01/1800Z 24.8N 73.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 02/1800Z 25.0N 74.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 03/1800Z 29.0N 73.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 120H 04/1800Z 34.0N 71.0W 75 KT 85 MPH $ Forecaster Pasch They have a Superensemble? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SabreAce33 Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 990mb, 65 kt the Idea of a CAT2 landfall on the DelMarva on Sunday night isn't that inconceivable now, even though I was laughing at it yesterday. A little early still, I think (says the guy living on Delmarva). A lot of uncertainty. Once Joaquin manages to put his pants on overnight, I suspect the models will start to make a little more sense and converge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 990mb, 65 kt the Idea of a CAT2 landfall on the DelMarva on Sunday night isn't that inconceivable now, even though I was laughing at it yesterday.Think it probably would need to get to major somewhere down there before seriously considering that strength up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hosj III Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 Latest HRRR looks like a fairly uniform 2-3" area-wide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 A little early still, I think (says the guy living on Delmarva). A lot of uncertainty. Once Joaquin manages to put his pants on overnight, I suspect the models will start to make a little more sense and converge. Let the wild goose chase begin. FWIW 15z SREF has a lot of Carolinas landfalls or close too it. All but 1 member would probably hit the east coast if extrapolated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 Guess we will see what the 18z GFS has in store before we see the 18z NAM finish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard-on-GFS Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 I'm not saying it will, but if this storm is really putting together an eye and shear continues to drop, this thing could crank a bit tonight and early tomorrow. It has already deepened considerably in the last 12 hours. I agree, I think this baby hits Cat 2 at some point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 Mean looking little system. Dry air inhibition, yes or no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 18z GFS at hrs 66 and 69 look to have that large heavy rain band setting up again just to our east and moving westward ETA: At hrs 75 and 78, it is slowly moving westward into the I-95 corridor Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 Awesome job by the HRRR on placement. Good stuff right up to, but just shy, of 95. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 4-5" at DCA at 84 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 Enjoy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 Screaming west here. big differences Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 Turning back to the coast like the CMC at 102. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 Not far off the NC coast at 108. If the PRE stalls somewhere, holy moly could that be a lot of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 GFS :o Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 Radar says things are about to rock for DC's western burbs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 LOL much further west and much stronger. about time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 114 and 117 is like WOAH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 Coming up the Bay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 DC folks hold on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 my oh my Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 Oh my. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 kabooooom Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 Oh my. 975mb coming into SE VA... ouch time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 Save this frame folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 Wow, can you get it off of the Gulf Stream and into the coast any faster? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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