Eskimo Joe Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 Droughts usually end in flood. I've seen it one too many times in my 16 years as a Meteorologist. Lets make this one for the record books. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 18z HRRR nails the area between the BR and the I-95 corridor (C to N VA) with upwards of 5" in next 15 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted September 29, 2015 Author Share Posted September 29, 2015 Yeah, my bad. I should've said 18z. Looks like a general 2" outside of the jackpot.Going by radar. East of DC seems to be missing out on this first batch. Dry as a bone here still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 18z HRRR nails the area between the BR and the I-95 corridor (C to N VA) with upwards of 5" in next 15 hrs 6" at IAD and maybe 0.75" at DCA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 :o Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 While many are forcusing on the next 24, I'm more interested in the period around 96hrs. The heaviest with the first round will likely be well west of mby. Of more interest is the second as the first will probalby have saturated the soil so any second big rainfall event could really cause problems. It's too early to pin down any details as the GFS, CMS and Euro are quite a bit different from each other but the 96hr GFS has the classic look of a PRE, one of those heavy rainfall events that occur around tropical systems but not directly a result of them. Note first that the GFS still has Joaquin well offshore but has a rainfall maximum along the frontal boundary across the Mid Altantic. Now look at where the stripe of heavy rainfall is with respect to the upper level jet streak. It's along the entrance region (right rear quadrant). The GFS may very well be wrong but the entire set up is interesting no matter which model you pick though the heaviest may still end up either west or north of us. Anyway a few random thoughts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 Link to HRRR or a screen grab? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 Just under 4" for the day. Let's see if this last batch in NC can push it over 4". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 Link to HRRR or a screen grab? This should work. I think it's free on WxBell. http://weather.graphics/hrrr/hrrr_maryland.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 Lets make this one for the record books. What a great idea. People don't actually live here. That's a myth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SabreAce33 Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 Good Stuff Here Thanks for chiming in Wes, good catch re: the precip in relation to the jet entrance region. Gonna be a very wet week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 Link to HRRR or a screen grab? http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/HRRRNE_CUR/comploop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 Request for ecmwf qpf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 Interesting perspective...of course based off one particular solution. http://videowall.accuweather.com/detail/videos/trending-now/video/4517899336001/tropical-storm-joaquin-may-raise-flood-risk-in-east?autoStart=true&utm_source=accuweather&utm_medium=accuweather&utm_campaign=awx_videowal_lin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 I meant a quarter-foot. lol. It'll still, somehow, find a way to under-perform. There's a ton of moisture headed your way. Even *your* pessimism has to be faltering... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 Just under 4" for the day. Let's see if this last batch in NC can push it over 4". You guys have gotten raked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 Request for ecmwf qpf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 Interesting perspective...of course based off one particular solution. http://videowall.accuweather.com/detail/videos/trending-now/video/4517899336001/tropical-storm-joaquin-may-raise-flood-risk-in-east?autoStart=true&utm_source=accuweather&utm_medium=accuweather&utm_campaign=awx_videowal_lin Rayno rulez. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 Hate to be a pain, but what about Friday onward? Like to see after this first slug. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 Rayno rulez. Love how his mic fades out because he's moving around so much with emphasis lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 The WPC is bullish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 It's practicing for winter. Dr. No! I got stuck doing work and just looked at the euro. Odd progression but generally speaking it's plausible in the sense that Joaquin never really gets involved with the trough other than providing some juice. I don't think much has been figured out today. The envelope of solutions is about as wide as 24 hours ago. Ens mean precip across the board is impressive. That part is becoming high confidence but it would sure be nice for some excitement other than downpours. The trough is mostly a closed low on the Euro.. the storm gets so far south that it mainly interacts with the westerlies. Makes sense it sort of just gets punted though I'm not sold that's the most likely scenario given the blocking. Ens mean is still west of the op though it has both ideas mixed in really. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 You guys have gotten raked. If we get what several of the models have been putting out, it would be devastating. 5.65" since Friday on my station in Roanoke with some areas up to 8" already. My legend doesn't go high enough to cover what has fallen south of Roanoke. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 Eric Holthaus Verified account @EricHolthaus 10m10 minutes ago Latest hurricane hunter pass through #Joaquin’s center reported a 20-mile wide eye has formed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 woah... Joaquin 65mph at 5pm 80 kts in 96 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 TROPICAL STORM JOAQUIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 8NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD500 PM EDT TUE SEP 29 2015The cloud pattern of the storm has become better organized duringthe day, with the low level center now embedded inside the northernedge of the main area of deep convection. Animation of cirrusmotions suggest that upper-level outflow is becoming a little moreprominent over the northern portion of the circulation, and this isconsistent with decreasing northerly shear. Flight-level,dropsonde, and SFMR wind observations from an Air Forcereconnaissance aircraft indicate that Joaquin has strengthened andthe intensity is now estimated to be 55 kt. With a more favorableupper-level wind environment now expected to prevail, the officialforecast calls for more strengthening than the previous advisories.Joaquin is expected to become a hurricane within 24 hours, withadditional intensification likely thereafter. The NHC intensityforecast is similar to the latest SHIPS model output.Fixes from the aircraft show a southward component of motion andthe initial motion estimate is now 240/4 kt. Joaquin is currentlysouth of the southwestern periphery of a weak mid-level ridge. TheECMWF model shows this ridging to the north of the tropical cycloneto be more prominent over the next few days than the other dynamicalmodels. Consequently, the ECMWF takes Joaquin more to thewest and southwest through 72 hours than any of the other availableguidance. Later in the forecast period, there is a significantdivergence in the track guidance. The HWRF and U.K. Met Officemodels forecast Joaquin to move over the east coast of the UnitedStates later in the period whereas the ECMWF and GFS keep the systemwell offshore. The official forecast lies between thesepossibilities and is similar to the latest Florida State UniversitySuperensemble solution.Interests in the Bahamas should monitor the progress of this storm.Watches or warnings may be issued for portions of these islandslater this evening.FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDSINIT 29/2100Z 26.0N 71.0W 55 KT 65 MPH12H 30/0600Z 25.8N 71.6W 60 KT 70 MPH24H 30/1800Z 25.5N 72.5W 65 KT 75 MPH36H 01/0600Z 25.1N 73.3W 70 KT 80 MPH48H 01/1800Z 24.8N 73.9W 75 KT 85 MPH72H 02/1800Z 25.0N 74.0W 80 KT 90 MPH96H 03/1800Z 29.0N 73.0W 80 KT 90 MPH120H 04/1800Z 34.0N 71.0W 75 KT 85 MPH$Forecaster Pasch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 Just under 4" for the day. Let's see if this last batch in NC can push it over 4". Impressive, almost double of here, 2.03 since 7 am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 NHC 5pm update for the track seems to go stronger, but slightly further offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 Anyone else stuck at hr 48 on the 18z NAM run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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