eurojosh Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 Some interesting dates on the analogs - particularly on the severe side, which seems like the least likely concern - http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/threats.php?reg=EC&rundt=2015092912 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 a good rain event. it Looks like 4-5 inches. Nothing we cant handle per the euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 The upper low is too blobby and just kicks it out. Still puts down a foot of rain in NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 zzzz on the EURO...Joaquin gets kicked to the fish and we get moist on about 4" of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 I love the Euro but I don't totally get what it's doing. I guess we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 I love the Euro but I don't totally get what it's doing. I guess we'll see. how it handles the trough and ULL is funky Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SabreAce33 Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 Agree with the hesitation on the Euro funkiness. I don't think the block is gonna hold Joaquin all the way down in the Bahamas. I think the models will straighten out a little once Joaquin organizes more fully. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 0.01" overnight. This flooding could get serious later on today when an additional quarter-inch or so might fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 Here's one of the crazy Gefs members. Can't even read the pressure. What website did you get that from? And its 994mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 The upper low is too blobby and just kicks it out. Still puts down a foot of rain in NC. how it handles the trough and ULL is funky The whole trough axis progression is odd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Redmorninglight Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 P004 would wipe my nice little town off the map. No thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 www.atmos.albany.edu here's the right one. LOL...yeah...I'll guess 800 mb. I TRIED to follow the lines and came up with 960? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 P004 would wipe my nice little town off the map. No thanks. My Aunt lives in Townbank and works for the ferry. Always wanted to be down there during a true coastal storm. Rain has started 75/70. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SabreAce33 Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 Looks like GFS ensembles heading to Mid-Atlantic. EDIT: Derp, wrong ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 Looks like Euro ensembles heading to Mid-Atlantic. They are coming out already? I thought they came out around 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SabreAce33 Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 They are coming out already? I thought they came out around 4 My bad, meant GFS ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 I love the Euro but I don't totally get what it's doing. I guess we'll see. It's practicing for winter. Dr. No! I got stuck doing work and just looked at the euro. Odd progression but generally speaking it's plausible in the sense that Joaquin never really gets involved with the trough other than providing some juice. I don't think much has been figured out today. The envelope of solutions is about as wide as 24 hours ago. Ens mean precip across the board is impressive. That part is becoming high confidence but it would sure be nice for some excitement other than downpours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 Have they flown in yet? What was the storm a while back that once the flight took place the modeling changed completely? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 Have they flown in yet? What was the storm a while back that once the flight took place the modeling changed completely? They finished. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 They finished. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/ Here's another useful link for tracking recon missions: http://airbornescience.nasa.gov/tracker/#view=map&mapid=_11&zoom=3&lat=27.4764&lng=-99.9532&callsign=NASA928 FWIW, looks like a G4 is flying out to replace the Herc, though I suppose it could be unrelated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 17z HRRR really pounds C and N VA (just to the N and W of I-95 corridor) with QPF values nearing/exceeding 4" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 Here's another useful link for tracking recon missions: http://airbornescience.nasa.gov/tracker/#view=map&mapid=_11&zoom=3&lat=27.4764&lng=-99.9532&callsign=NASA928 FWIW, looks like a G4 is flying out to replace the Herc, though I suppose it could be unrelated. G4 is usually going to be for larger pattern dropsondes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 17z HRRR really pounds C and N VA (just to the N and W of I-95 corridor) with QPF values nearing/exceeding 4" I see 8" on WxBell. Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 quarterinch.gif I meant a quarter-foot. lol. It'll still, somehow, find a way to under-perform. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 For posterity, unless someone wants to just make a mega obs / disco thread. MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0531NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD314 PM EDT TUE SEP 29 2015AREAS AFFECTED...E WEST VIRGINIA...VIRGINIA...W MARYLAND...EXT SWPENNSYLVANIACONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLEVALID 291912Z - 300012ZSUMMARY...BAROCLINIC SHIELD PRECIPITATION SETS THE STAGE WITHMODERATE TOTALS BEFORE INCREASED CONVECTION EVOLVES BY 00Z WITHINCREASED FLASH FLOOD THREAT.DISCUSSION...WITH THE MAIN UPPER LOW DISPLACED WELL WEST OVER SEMO...WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND INCREASED DIVERGENCE ALOFT IS INPLACE TO ENHANCE THE ADVANCING S/W OVER SW VA ATTM...ALLOWING FORINCREASED DEEPENING OF THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION INCREASINGINFLOW/LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. AT THE SAME TIME INCREASING THEBAROCLINIC SHIELD AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT FROM THE SE INTO THEHIGHER TERRAIN OF NW VA/E WV. 25-30 KTS OF LOW LEVEL FLOW FROMTHE PIEDMONT INTO THE EASTERN ATLANTIC/GULF STREAM OFF NCCONTINUES TO PUMP VERY MOIST AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS AND SWLY FLOWPULLS DEEP MOISTURE ALOFT FOR A NEARLY SATURATED PROFILE WITH TPWSIN THE 2.0-2.25" RANGE...ALLOWING FOR EFFICIENT OVERRUNNING WITH.5"/HR RATES SEEN ACROSS A VAST AREA LIKELY TO INCREASE INCOVERAGE ACROSS WV INTO W MD/SW PA.RECENT VIS LOOP SHOWS AN UPTICK IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONGAND AHEAD OF A WNW-ESE MID-LEVEL TROF. PARTICULARLY OVERVA...THESE CELLS ARE TAPPING A BIT OF INCREASED INSTABILITY FROMSOME SOLAR INSOLATION THAT OCCURRED IN THE CLEARING ACROSS SE VAAND NC. THE CAPES ARE LIMITED TO ABOUT 500-1000 J/KG ALLOWING FORSOME INCREASED RATES OF UP TO 1.0"-1.25"/HR. RATES ARE NOT LIKELYTO LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING BUT WITH MODERATE TOTALS IN ADVANCECOULD LEAD TO PROLONGED FLOODING PROBLEMS.HI-RES CAMS PARTICULARLY THE ESRL EXPERIMENTAL HRRR...THEHRRR...THE NSSL-WRF...THE ARW...NMMB AND 16Z RAP STRONGLY SUGGESTA SIMILAR EVOLUTION WITH THE WAVE LIFTING NORTH TOWARD SW PA BY00Z BUT WITH WEAKER SWLY FLOW TOWARD THE COAST...THE ADVANCEMENTOF THE BOUNDARY IS STALLED ALLOWING FOR INCREASEDCONVERGENT/CONFLUENT FLOW TO POOL ALONG A LINE FROM FREDRICKCOUNTY VA THROUGH CENTRAL VA TOWARD LUNENBERG. THIS INCREASEDCONFLUENCE ALLOWING FOR INCREASED AND MORE VIGOROUS CONVECTION TODEVELOP WITH MUCH HIGHER RATES AS THEY ADVANCE SLOWLY EASTPARTICULARLY OVER N VA...INCREASING FLASH FLOOD THREAT.GALLINAATTN...WFO...AKQ...CTP...LWX...PBZ...RLX...RNK...ATTN...RFC...MARFC...OHRFC...SERFC...LAT...LON 39887958 39857891 39707830 39187762 3877774137747728 37107732 36697778 36697851 3708793037597972 37918003 38268029 38588074 3905807639648032 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 G4 is usually going to be for larger pattern dropsondes. Yeah isn't the G4 not really to penetrate the storm like the hunters are? More to get the environment around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 I see 8" on WxBell. Wow. 18z HRRR shifts some of it into the I-95 corridor Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 Droughts usually end in flood. I've seen it one too many times in my 16 years as a Meteorologist. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 18z HRRR shifts some of it into the I-95 corridor Yeah, my bad. I should've said 18z. Looks like a general 2" outside of the jackpot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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