ThePhotoGuy Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 Lol JBastardi's map shows a cat 1 making a run for the bay That track would be close to worst case scenario for storm surge along the western side of the Bay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 Closing in on 9" of rain by hr 96... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 Nice shift west @ h5 w/ 12z. Setup would support JB's track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 Is that Joaquin making landfall in NC at hr 96? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 Elevation to the west gets demolished on GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 Is that Joaquin making landfall in NC at hr 96? No, it's still well OTS. Sort of tries to dev a 'secondary' coastal in that area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 Very heavy rains return to DC region hr 105 (after a short break) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThePhotoGuy Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 Through 12z Sat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 9"+ for most of the area thru 117 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 It's sort of a reverse Miller B... Offshore system transfers energy to an onshore LP that just keeps spinning... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 If the GFS is right we're going to have lots of flooding problems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 Well 12z GEFS should be fun to see when they come out... prob will be some outlandish solutions in there as well in ref to the individual members... but we shall see if the OP is on its own or if it has support Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 If the GFS is right we're going to have lots of flooding problems. 12z GFS with all the rain is like a Lee redux (that's the right storm right?) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 Pretty sick run. The ultimate scenario would be Joaquin to be captured instead of just feeding the ull but this run will work too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 that is stupid wet. I kinda really DONT want that much rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 that is stupid wet. I kinda really DONT want that much rain Yeah, I'm right there with you. I hope everyone has a working sump pump Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 12z GFS with all the rain is like a Lee redux (that's the right storm right? Lee was somewhat localized. this is a prolonged event affecting a larger area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 Reminds me of the October 2005 rains...hopefully this trend continues with the other guidance. The large rivers need a good flush after such a dry summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 12z GFS with all the rain is like a Lee redux (that's the right storm right?) Yup. Do not want. Especially since I'll be out of town and unable to address any potential basement flooding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 Yeah no thanks on that kind of rain. Even half as much would be pushing it for that widespread of coverage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 totals around Baltimore look to be the opposite of what we would expect in a typical snow storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 enjoy your flood southerners. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 the euro will save us. will cut precip by half as it says "GFS you cray" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 enjoy your flood southerners. Ha. Your 8" will go a long way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 Why doesn't it get captured here? Pretty much a factor of location. Too far south. Trough goes negative but can't grab it. OTOH- is the GFS handling Joaquin correctly? Probably not. I think the more important takeaway is that the GFS is shifting west with the upper level energy digging and closing off into the deep south. That keeps the door open for the possibility of a capture instead of going the other way and kicking things east. It's nice to see the 12z op gfs look closer to the very wet 6z gefs solutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 12z GGEM brings through a very heavy and large rainband late this evening into tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 Pretty much a factor of location. Too far south. Trough goes negative but can't grab it. OTOH- is the GFS handling Joaquin correctly? Probably not. I think the more important takeaway is that the GFS is shifting west with the upper level energy digging and closing off into the deep south. That keeps the door open for the possibility of a capture instead of going the other way and kicking things east. It's nice to see the 12z op gfs look closer to the very wet 6z gefs solutions. the 12z GFS looks more like the 12z euro from yesterday if that is the case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 Closing in on 1.25" since 7 am and still pouring here, actually last hour has had hardest rain of the day. Lots of road closures, school closings, mudslides and trees down/power outages reported just to my south where 3-7 inches has fallen in past 24 hours! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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