SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Looks like they are officially calling it a major hurricane at 8 am saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Uh oh That path would be catastrophic for the NYC metro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted September 30, 2015 Author Share Posted September 30, 2015 I think it's time for a official hurricane trend. I'll start it since I started this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 left shift quite a bit compared to the 5am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 From the Discussion "2. Should the threat to the U.S. increase, any further adjustments of the forecast to the west would likely be accompanied by an increase in the forecast forward speed, with impacts along the coast occurring sooner than currently forecast. A hurricane watch could be required for portions of the U.S. coast as early as Thursday evening." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yuki neko Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 yes, the SREF has no direct tropical relocation code. But the 7 members initialized off of the GFS should be ok since the GFS has that code. The 7 members initialized off of the RAP may be ok, since the GFS feeds synoptics into the RAP every 12 hours. The members initialized off of the NAM (which does not have the tropical relocation) are probably screwed. Forgive the high schooler here... What's tropical relocation code? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtk Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Forgive the high schooler here... What's tropical relocation code? It's a peice of software that runs prior to data assimilation that removes the vortex from the environmental flow and then "relocates" it to the observed position. It's simply one of many forms of TC initialization in NWP. By the way, ECMWF does not do any relocation or bogusing in their system. I'm not sure that the GFS version doesn't do more harm than good.... The NAM/SREF issues run much deeper than that I suspect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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