Buddy1987 Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Guys and gals, I think we need to alert people to the "PRE" (predecessor rainfall event) that may be about to transpire for a large geographical area. I have seen some outputs from reliable models that are painting 6-10" of rain for my specific area. We cannot even take an inch of rain at this point over here in Roanoke, let alone that amount. This would be catastrophic to the area. There are so many other variables then just the Hurricane itself, which by no means am I taking away the severity of a hurricane. If people are not familiar with a PRE look it up on google etc quite ominous sounding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Reporter: Well, Mr. Hurricane, how do you feel about the coast of Virginia? Mr. Hurricane: Can't say I care for its shape, frankly. Don't like going there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skipper Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Guys and gals, I think we need to alert people to the "PRE" (predecessor rainfall event) that may be about to transpire for a large geographical area. I have seen some outputs from reliable models that are painting 6-10" of rain for my specific area. We cannot even take an inch of rain at this point over here in Roanoke, let alone that amount. This would be catastrophic to the area. There are so many other variables then just the Hurricane itself, which by no means am I taking away the severity of a hurricane. If people are not familiar with a PRE look it up on google etc quite ominous sounding. Agreed. Wouldn't mind moving the Joaquin talk to a new thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Sref take it into NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 En Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 cmich, that's one heck of a cluster...That would be pretty nasty for our area - even more so if you nudged that tight cluster a hair north into the cbay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Sref take it into NC Between ILM and OBX it would appear... but that is the mean. Wonder what the individ ensembles show Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Between ILM and OBX it would appear... but that is the mean. Wonder what the individ ensembles show And even then I'm not sure I'd put a ton of stock into the SREF at range. General idea of coming back to the coast vs the Euro solution though - good to see support for the majority camp. Have to believe Euro must cave at some point...either that or a full meltdown of the other models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 ive noticed the GFS has slowed down the landfall. Now showing sunday mid morning. It had it hitting like around 1am in previous runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 ive noticed the GFS has slowed down the landfall. Now showing sunday mid morning. It had it hitting like around 1am in previous runs Should give more time for the 850 line to make its 1,500 mile journey south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 And we have a eye forming.http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/11L/imagery/vis_lalo-animated.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 yes, the SREF has no direct tropical relocation code. But the 7 members initialized off of the GFS should be ok since the GFS has that code. The 7 members initialized off of the RAP may be ok, since the GFS feeds synoptics into the RAP every 12 hours. The members initialized off of the NAM (which does not have the tropical relocation) are probably screwed. And even then I'm not sure I'd put a ton of stock into the SREF at range. General idea of coming back to the coast vs the Euro solution though - good to see support for the majority camp. Have to believe Euro must cave at some point...either that or a full meltdown of the other models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/11L/imagery/rb_lalo-animated.gifbetter loop. Last 2 frames I'm hoping for a Hispaniola track...and that holds out some hope for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 yes, the SREF has no direct tropical relocation code. But the 7 members initialized off of the GFS should be ok since the GFS has that code. The 7 members initialized off of the RAP may be ok, since the GFS feeds synoptics into the RAP every 12 hours. The members initialized off of the NAM (which does not have the tropical relocation) are probably screwed. Yeah I have to imagine it's those factors combined with the SREF being at longer range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bodhi Cove Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 6z gfs shows prolonged gale conditions on the beaches and bay Fri-sun. And then storm conditions all the way to the cities Sunday. Sustained 50mph along 95 with 60+ over water. Hurricane force gusts for sure over water. Further south track would definitely cause more surge issues on the bay because the S-SE flow would roar on approach. Having prolonged easterly gale conditions leading in would weaken the Atlantic Coast's defenses prior to the big stuff. Pretty nasty run again. 12z will be SRO around here. That will shut down the Bay and Key bridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 stand down everyone, stand down He'll report a 90 MPH gust no matter where it lands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 PRE approaching at 51 and pounding the DC region from hrs 54 through 60 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 PRE approaching at 51 and pounding the DC region from hrs 54 through 60 Meanwhile, Joaquin is essentially dead lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TerpWeather Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 PRE approaching at 51 and pounding the DC region from hrs 54 through 60 This is referring to the 12z NAM right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 What? On the 12z NAM. At hr 60 Joaquin's at 999mb and rising. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Lol...NAM has Joaquin as basically an open wave in 48 hours....not necessarily a trustworthy source Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 This is referring to the 12z NAM right? Yes sorry... still heavy rains through 69 on 12z NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 ok, guys. late hour NAM isn't best for tropical stuff. C'mon. does this have to be said? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Eye is for sure forming. Pretty much moving w to wnw. No southward movement right now riding along 20w. Moving pretty good to http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/11L/imagery/vis_lalo-animated.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 BULLETIN HURRICANE JOAQUIN ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015 1100 AM EDT WED SEP 30 2015 ...JOAQUIN STRENGTHENS SOME MORE AS IT MOVES SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.7N 72.6W ABOUT 215 MI...345 KM ENE OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...SW OR 230 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...971 MB...28.68 INCHES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Uh oh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 yes, thank you. and it isn't even the late hours. I'll say it again: the NAM does not have the tropical relocation code that the GFS has, so it has no hope of getting a system like that correct. but it may be accurate with its 5-8" PRE rain event for Friday into Saturday. ok, guys. late hour NAM isn't best for tropical stuff. C'mon. does this have to be said? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Well, Ian got the capital M he was looking for...wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mosi76 Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Uh oh wow. does the EURO finally fold this afternoon? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.