CAPE Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Eps say op is on its own. Def GFS like It scrapes the NC coast then turns NE. A more typical outcome, but this is not a very typical set up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 06z GFS is an Outer Banks landfall but with a pretty big wind field it would be nasty up here too. Consistent signal on the GFS for 20"+ in NC/SC with the PRE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 6z gfs: http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015093006/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_19.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 According to 6z looks like it would make landfall with around 80 kt winds for North Carolina. That would probably mean legitimate tropical storm conditions up here in DC. Also, wouldn't this track be bad with respect to storm surge in the bay? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Re: the GFS.....MN mentioned this already, but coastal SC thru Charlotte and into the Smokies get nailed with the PRE. 20" of rain? Serious issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Am interested to see if the SW trend on the GFS continues later today. Seems like the heavy rain band has shifted further SW each of the last 4-5 runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Am interested to see if the SW trend on the GFS continues later today. Seems like the heavy rain band has shifted further SW each of the last 4-5 runs. Some importance to the idea that NHC doesn't bring it to 75 W. They give EURO some major emphasis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mosi76 Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Some importance to the idea that NHC doesn't bring it to 75 W. Thy give EURO some major emphasis. Right now it's basically Euro vs the world and NHC is betting on Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Cobb outputs for Westminster 00z NAM: 2.92 through 12z 10/3 06z NAM: 3.73 through 18z 10/3 00z GFS: 4.00 through 06z 10/6 06z GFS: 3.33 through 06z 10/5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Right now it's basically Euro vs the world and NHC is betting on Euro Yeah....hmmmm very interesting. Looking at the Euro Ensembles and all the other guidance makes me think I'd hedge toward landfall if I was NHC, but they still have time to adjust tonight/tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Its going into a area of 20kt shear. so that might hinder it from being a major hurricane. Only scenario i can see it not becoming strong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 regardless of where joaquin ends up, still an impressive amount of rain for some people through the weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 GFS has been oddly consistent. Wonder if it's because of the recon data added at 00z. Maybe there is a small lag with the OP EURO and it will spin further west starting at 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 These dudes FWIW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 I got 5.02" last night. Nearby cocorahs reports are in the same range. Hoping this tropical storm busts badly and goes OTS. Please!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 JoeB for the #HYPE Joe Bastardi @BigJoeBastardi 39s39 seconds agoState College, PA Latest HRWF, which has done a great job with intensity has this getting to 922.likely 10-20mb too low, but message clear on intensification Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mosi76 Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 NHC bumps track to the left. Now a noticeable curve left at the end of the forecast period and we are back in the cone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 I don't think that they're betting on the Euro; it's more that showing a track with a landfall would cause a lot of panic, and they don't want to do that until it's more certain. The discussion clearly notes that most guidance shows a mid-Atlantic landfall, and they've adjusted their track to the west, but they're not going to sound the alarm bells until there is more model agreement, and that makes sense to me. This is where there needs to be more emphasis on the cone of uncertainty instead of the track, although I think I would argue that their cone should have more coverage on the west side. Right now it's basically Euro vs the world and NHC is betting on Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mosi76 Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 I don't think that they're betting on the Euro; it's more that showing a track with a landfall would cause a lot of panic, and they don't want to do that until it's more certain. The discussion clearly notes that most guidance shows a mid-Atlantic landfall, and they've adjusted their track to the west, but they're not going to sound the alarm bells until there is more model agreement, and that makes sense to me. This is where there needs to be more emphasis on the cone of uncertainty instead of the track, although I think I would argue that their cone should have more coverage on the west side. yeah I agree. its clear that they are considering a mid atlantic land fall in the discussion and I think the newly adjusted 8am track accounts for what you are saying. I think they are doing fine, but I think they are leaning heavily on the historical accuracy of the Euro for this type of setup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 6z gfs shows prolonged gale conditions on the beaches and bay Fri-sun. And then storm conditions all the way to the cities Sunday. Sustained 50mph along 95 with 60+ over water. Hurricane force gusts for sure over water. Further south track would definitely cause more surge issues on the bay because the S-SE flow would roar on approach. Having prolonged easterly gale conditions leading in would weaken the Atlantic Coast's defenses prior to the big stuff. Pretty nasty run again. 12z will be SRO around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutWX Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 The further SW this thing tracks, the more stock I'm putting in the Euro. It's been the furthest SW solution regarding the initial movement of the storm. At the moment it's still trucking along in that direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherCCB Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 6z gfs shows prolonged gale conditions on the beaches and bay Fri-sun. And then storm conditions all the way to the cities Sunday. Sustained 50mph along 95 with 60+ over water. Hurricane force gusts for sure over water. Further south track would definitely cause more surge issues on the bay because the S-SE flow would roar on approach. Having prolonged easterly gale conditions leading in would weaken the Atlantic Coast's defenses prior to the big stuff. Pretty nasty run again. 12z will be SRO around here. Yea, if any of the last 3 GFS runs verify safe to say we will be facing a situation none of us have ever seen before in our lives. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 stand down everyone, stand down Very few canes have ever come ashore in VA..Similar to coast of Georgia. They just don't like the shape of the coastline..So it's probably somewhere north of ACY to NYC for LF as best guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TowsonWeather Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 stand down everyone, stand down They "just don't like the shape of the coastline." #science Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Southern push is stoping. Really just moving w or slightly wnw right now http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/11L/imagery/rbtop_lalo-animated.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 I might not be picking up on it, but I don't see any wnw movement on that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/11L/imagery/rb_lalo-animated.gifbetter loop. Last 2 frames Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 stand down everyone, stand down Reporter: Well, Mr. Hurricane, how do you feel about the coast of Virginia? Mr. Hurricane: Can't say I care for its shape, frankly. Don't like going there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Fresh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Reporter: Well, Mr. Hurricane, how do you feel about the coast of Virginia? Mr. Hurricane: Can't say I care for its shape, frankly. Don't like going there. Track CMC2 in the above 12z guidance tracks reflects this feeling on the part of the hurricane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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