yoda Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 at 00z UKIE at 144 SLP map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 at 00z UKIE at 144 SLP map 968mb SE of the Banks lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 00z UKIE pretty wet tomorrow night... 1-2 inches of rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 The GFS is a massive failboat of a model with tropical cyclones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 The whole fleet (of models) may sink with this one. At this point, the ECM is not really buying in, as said above the GGEM brings Ida back to life and forces an unconvincing looking blend out to sea a lot quicker than some of the other guidance, the GFS may at least be able to claim a better track from this set of model runs. I think this has a very good chance of becoming a hurricane near Cape Hatteras and moving inland somewhere between the Delmarva and western Long Island. Lots of blocking in various portions of the Atlantic with nothing much to push Joaquin anywhere except due north or even a touch west of due north eventually. And it came together very efficiently over super warm waters with almost no shear likely for days. The interaction of Ida's remnant low is the wild card. If Joaquin develops fast enough, that may just get pulled in like a knot on the rope of the polar front in 72-96 hours. Is this classic Fujiwara fusion potentially, and if so, what would be expected for Joaquin's energy levels during the capture? I am guessing it might assist more than deter a process of intensification around 30-35 N, key question being how close to KHAT? Would say best guess is more of an impact on NJ-NY-sNE than MidAtl but possibly a fairly good sideswipe anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 Euro is OTS with Joaquin, about 3" of rain for most people through the weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 Looks wet. 3-6" across the area through the weekend with pehaps the heaviest falling early on more west, and the later week/weekend stuff focused more towards the coast. Still lots of details to be resolved. Euro looked pretty wonky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 Euro is OTS with Joaquin, about 3" of rain for most people through the weekend pbp from NE folks said it was due to the front not grabbing the TS in time and then kicking it to hang with the fish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 Gfs not bad w the front, but dumps with the system at the end of the week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 Cobb data for Westminster 00z NAM (84 hours, to 12z Friday): 2.62" 06z NAM (84 hours, to 18z Friday): 2.42" 00z GFS (to 21z Saturday): .83" 06z GFS (to 21z Sunday): 3.91" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 So neither the GFS or NAM are really a big deal in the metro areas with the front. Then comes the coastal thingy and we get dumped on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 So neither the GFS or NAM are really a big deal in the metro areas with the front. Then comes the coastal thingy and we get dumped on. NAM doesn't include the coastal thingie, I don't think... maybe just the start of it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 So Joaquin hangs out in the Bahamas for a while on the Euro, a little low pops up off the coast of the Carolinas while Jaoquin heads out to sea. Weird solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 Through Monday night, the Euro has 3.8" for DC, 4.6" for BWI, 3.4" for Westminster. Up to 8" out in the mountains Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 Joaquin would be more interesting if it hit Phoenix Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 NAM doesn't include the coastal thingie, I don't think... maybe just the start of it? NAM has a train of moisture stretching from our area all the way down to east of the Bahamas. Based on Cobb, BWI ends up with 6.48" by the end of the run with more to come. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 Joaquin would be more interesting if it hit Phoenix http://instantrimshot.com/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 NAM has a train of moisture stretching from our area all the way down to east of the Bahamas. Based on Cobb, BWI ends up with 6.48" by the end of the run with more to come. i didn't look at BWI, only Westminster, but yeah that makes sense. Even the Euro has that train of moisture going on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derecho! Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 So I guess we are going to have four (edit...five) different regional forum threads on Joaquin, each with 10x more posts than the main forum thread. That seems...inefficient. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 So I guess we are going to have four (edit...five) different regional forum threads on Joaquin, each with 10x more posts than the main forum thread. That seems...inefficient. I can't remember the last time I actually looked at the main forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 So I guess we are going to have four (edit...five) different regional forum threads on Joaquin, each with 10x more posts than the main forum thread. That seems...inefficient. how is that inefficient? wouldn't it make more sense for you to just follow this thread? maybe the southeast regions thread? The main thread won't have any specifics, just a few tropical guru type posts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 So neither the GFS or NAM are really a big deal in the metro areas with the front. Then comes the coastal thingy and we get dumped on. Yes, but some of the hi-res models are dumping on us tonight into tomorrow... the 0z 5km ARW through 48 hrs just north and west of I-95 as receiving 3"+ of rain... while the 0z 5km NMM has DCA ~2" of rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 So I guess we are going to have four (edit...five) different regional forum threads on Joaquin, each with 10x more posts than the main forum thread. That seems...inefficient. I personally am not a fan of hearing a bunch of out of area people talk about their backyards only in a massive consolidated thread. At least here everything is more or less local to what may happen in our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 1.57" here since midnight. Under a flood warning with another heavy band pushing in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdhokie Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 Yes, but some of the hi-res models are dumping on us tonight into tomorrow... the 0z 5km ARW through 48 hrs just north and west of I-95 as receiving 3"+ of rain You mean the same models that dumped on us Saturday, Sunday, Monday? Lots of modeled rain, little in the rain bucket. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 Looking at the 09z SREFs mean... there has got to some super wet solutions in there late in the run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derecho! Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 Agreed. Regional discussions are best. I've always disliked the regional boards, but they were the inevitable result of a huge mass of people whose eyes burn at the horror of ever having to glance at discussion of weather more than 50 feet from their backyards. I'm an oddball, I guess, in that I care more about really interesting WX on the other side of the world than mundane Wx IMBY. Regional makes sense for severe and winter. Zero sense for tropical for a lot of reasons. Having Atlantic tropical system model, recon, sat imagery discussion split among 5 regional boards is a complete fiasco, IMHO, particularly when the modeled landfalls (if one occurs) range from South Carolina to Massachusetts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 I've always disliked the regional boards, but they were the inevitable result of a huge mass of people whose eyes burn at the horror of ever having to glance at discussion of weather more than 50 feet from their backyards. I'm an oddball, I guess, in that I care more about really interesting WX on the other side of the world than mundane Wx IMBY. Regional makes sense for severe and winter. Zero sense for tropical for a lot of reasons. Having Atlantic tropical system model, recon, sat imagery discussion split among 5 regional boards is a complete fiasco, IMHO, particularly when the modeled landfalls (if one occurs) range from South Carolina to Massachusetts. The effects will be very different from subforum to subforum. Do you really want to hear NYC folks talk about their rain totals and have to weed through tons of rapid fire posts to find something from one of our local mets? I'm not a big fan of the threads that have 15 new posts every time you refresh the page. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 The same reason storm discussion is best in regional forums is the same reason there are regional forums to begin with. Reminds me of those eSurance commercials. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 Getting off topic with the regional vs main forum stuff. Each region has enough very capable posters to cover the important stuff. And focusing on back yards is kinda what this hobby is all about. Back in the eastern days there were far fewer posters so single event threads were much more readable. On topic- FWIW, 6z gefs members have about 2/3rds of the members having some form of capture, tuck, or left turn into the area. Because of timing differences, the 850 precip/pressure panels are tough to post but this 72hr precip panel shows it well. I'm not sure when uncertainty will be reigned but for now we are very much inside of the possible solutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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