AmericanWxFreak Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Looks like the HWRF is a 945 into the Outer Banks FWIW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 yeah, that idea is certainly on the table too. I see that there are severe t-storm warnings up now in southeast PA near the back edge of the heavy rain there (close to the pseudo-comma head), so I'm guessing that something similar is happening up there. Might be wake low or something. There was some spin to that activity and a very sharp cutoff. Strong pressure gradient possible somewhere in there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 this post won't get much attention with the crazy Joaquin solutions on the table, but I'm wondering if anyone else experienced something similar to what we had in southern Howard County around 10:30PM tonight. Near the back edge of the heavy rain, the wind picked up for a few minutes and just started roaring. Lost power for almost 3 hours.Good winds for me too but earlier since I am in VA. Near the end I started worrying about what was happening. Lightning and very gusty. I am in Purcellville. You can do the long loop and see some spin on the radar band It was windy on the edge. Kind of cool though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Didn't expect to see this much spread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 this post won't get much attention with the crazy Joaquin solutions on the table, but I'm wondering if anyone else experienced something similar to what we had in southern Howard County around 10:30PM tonight. Near the back edge of the heavy rain, the wind picked up for a few minutes and just started roaring. Lost power for almost 3 hours. I was watching radar at the time and I do think there might have been a weak tornado that formed just northwest of Laural and moved NNW about 5-7 miles. There was a weak couplet with that storm at the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Didn't expect to see this Whoa, those wide rights really skew the mean...interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Is that because it won't come to Boston? PRE alone is affecting us from it. Going to be a nice slug of moisture but pales in comparison to what you guys would see on 0z gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 I think those are pretty much the only solutions at this point.. either into NC/VA or a more Euroesque look which is the east one. Given the current state of the storm and the apparent setup it's still pretty hard not to favor the west play. At this point it's also harder to totally ignore that the HWRF keeps targeting the same general are the early global ops are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Anyone have the 0z HWRF? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Anyone have the 0z HWRF? Ryan Maue on twitter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Anyone have the 0z HWRF? Looks like the 0z GFDL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 0z HWRF is similar to 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Not sure I see the euro coming all the way back when it runs tonight, but a modest shift west would be a win in my book. Those east members on the GEFS are quite EUROesque. It'll be interesting to see shortly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EHoffman Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Euro is bombing this storm out at 60 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Smidge west and considerably stronger at 60 hr on Euro. Sitting over eastern Bahamas. GFS is further north at that point which might still end up being the difference if Euro doesn't join. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 @72 on the EURO, low placement is pretty much identical to 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Eh.. I don't think it's going to do it. That very small difference in location around that time frame seems to have a big impact on if it can be captured or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
schinz Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Eh.. I don't think it's going to do it. That very small difference in location around that time frame seems to have a big impact on if it can be captured or not. I agree...this will be a swing and a miss for landfall on the EC. Better luck with the next system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 I agree...this will be a swing and a miss for landfall on the EC. Better luck with the next system. But the balance is not in the Euro's favor. It could definitely adjust but not that much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 I agree...this will be a swing and a miss for landfall on the EC. Better luck with the next system. Way too early to tell. The GEFS members to the east are definitely leading me to give the EURO more support. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 So sounds like a bit west and stronger, but no dice on landfall. If I have this correctly, that puts all the major globals and spaghetti models except for a few ens and op euro on the side of an east coast impact. I know which side I'm on... Yeah, but we all know how many times the EURO has differed on east coast winter storms only to be correct, and there were more ens members east 0z than 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Issue with the euro is it stalls it too long north of the Bahamas. Missing the phase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Yeah, but we all know how many times the EURO has differed on east coast winter storms only to be correct, and there were more ens members east 0z than 18z Crazy talk. There are synoptic adjustments on this run towards the other models such as backing the ULL more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Euro is driving the hurricane right into the ridge, that isn't going to happen also not to mention that the remnants of Ida initially get picked up by a front only to double back west, which really isn't a believable solution neither. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Euro out with the fishes but much deeper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Euro out with the fishes but much deeper. It did tick west quite a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Would bet that Euro is wrong but the possibility of a coastal track that jogs northeast instead of into the Mid Atlantic might be credible on balance of all guidance (which would still be a significant storm but no disaster in this subforum, possibly not in Long Island either if it stays south of Montauk Point in that scenario.) However, would say the Mid-Atlantic landfall is the leading option at maybe 50% now, the Long Island or out to sea options more like 30% and 10% chances. Another 10% should be assigned to outcomes where the storm only lasts 2-3 days or moves inland in the Carolinas or Georgia. And within that 50% envelope, risk of the storm intensity being cat-2 or higher is probably 50-50 if not higher so that gives a cumulative probability of 25% to 40% for a major impact storm in this region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Eps say op is on its own. Def GFS like Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 UKIE is a direct hit, but maybe a tad weaker? http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_00/PNM_panel.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Eps say op is on its own. Def GFS like can u post individual ens tracks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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